NGAD Still On Pause As China Shows Off Sixth-Gen Aircraft

Despite the reveal of advanced Chinese aircraft over the weekend, the U.S. Air Force’s own next-generation plans have not changed. According to Secretary Frank Kendall, the service’s plans surrounding its Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program remain on pause leading up to the incoming Trump administration and the next batch of civilian leaders of the Air Force.

“I’ve been watching China modernize their military for quite a while,” Kendall said. “They’re working aggressively to build a military designed to keep the U.S. out of the Western Pacific, and I think, over time, they have more ambitions than even that.”

Both Washington and Beijing are racing to produce the first sixth-generation technology, and it appears the PRC just got closer with the debut of two sophisticated flight demonstrators earlier this year.

When the U.S. Air Force’s NGAD hits the skies, it will represent the most cutting-edge capabilities across the globe in action. However, the PLAAF could reach this milestone first if NGAD is continuously delayed. Perhaps the most pressing issues impacting the service’s sixth-generation plans are affordability and evolving threats. Since NGAD is being designed to replace the service’s aging F-22 Raptor platform, the upcoming “family of systems” must be absolutely dominant when introduced.

A brief overview of NGAD

Over a decade ago, the Air Force’s plans to field a capable sixth-generation platform by the 2030’s came to fruition. Initially the service incorporated the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency’s (DARPA) Air Dominance Study into the project’s blueprint. NGAD aims to develop a few technological areas, including propulsion, stealth, and advanced weapons. While limited details surrounding NGAD were publicized in its earlier stages, the Air Force has recently released some information on the program.

What’s holding NGAD back?

The crux of NGAD will be the highly autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that will accompany sixth-generation fighter jets in the skies. These Collaborative Combat Vehicles will be deployed to carry out surveillance, to extend command and control under human direction and test enemy air defense capabilities in a “loyal wingmen” capacity. The Air Force will develop at least 1,000 of these advanced drones in an effort to create mass with an abundance of less expensive UAVs.

As explained by Kendall, “The expectation is that these (unmanned) aircraft can be designed to be less survivable and less capable, but still bring an awful lot to the fight in a mixture that the enemy has a very hard time sorting out and dealing with.” He added, “You can even intentionally sacrifice some of them to draw fire, if you will, to make the enemy expose himself.”

While the use of these advanced drones will drive down the overall price of the NGAD, the program remains massively expensive. In fact, the $300 million price tag associated with the overall program remains an obstacle to overcome for the Air Force. However, considering Beijing’s own progress on the sixth-generation technology front, the service should prioritize the timely introduction of a rival platform.

Maya Carlin is a National Interest security contributor, an analyst with the Center for Security Policy, and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel.

Image: Wikimedia Commons.