The Oscar path for ‘Anora’ after its Golden Globes shutout

Anora had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day at Sunday’s Golden Globes. The Best Picture Oscar frontrunner and critics awards leader went home empty-handed, going 0-for-5 despite being the odds-on favorite in three categories, Best Comedy/Musical Film, Best Comedy/Musical Actress for Mikey Madison, and Best Screenplay for writer-director Sean Baker. What’s more, it saw its top Oscar rivals bag at least one statuette each. The Brutalist won Best Drama Film, Best Director for Brady Corbet, and Best Drama Actor for Adrien Brody. Emilia Pérez converted four of its 10 nominations into hardware for Best Comedy/Musical Film, Best Supporting Actress for Zoe Saldaña, Best Non-English Language Film, and Best Original Song for “El Mal.” Conclave took home Best Screenplay. And regardless of what you think about the Globes’ Cinematic and Box Office Achievement Award, it allowed the Wicked gang to get onstage, hold a trophy, give a speech, and be seen as a winner.

So where does that leave Anora in the Oscar race now? It is possible to recover from a Globes shutout to win Best Picture — and that road lies mainly with the Screen Actors Guild Awards and its ensemble category. Since the Best Picture field was expanded 15 years ago, only three movies have been blanked at the Globes and gone on to win the top prize at the Oscars. It happened the very first year with The Hurt Locker, which went 0-for-3 at the Globes, losing Best Drama Film and Best Director to Avatar. Spotlight also went 0-for-3, losing the aforementioned categories to one film as well, The Revenant. And CODA went 0-for-2 as The Power of the Dog and its star Kodi Smit-McPhee defeated it in drama film and Troy Kotsur in supporting actor, respectively.

All three films bounced back at SAG, which represents actors, aka the largest branch in the Academy. The Hurt Locker was nominated for ensemble and lead actor for Jeremy Renner, who was snubbed by the Globes and would go on to receive an Oscar bid. Like The Hurt Locker, Spotlight did not receive any acting nominations at the Globes, but SAG came through with a nomination in supporting actress for Rachel McAdams and an ensemble win. McAdams and costar Mark Ruffalo would earn Oscar nominations. CODA started its Phase 2 surge at SAG, scoring victories for ensemble and Kostur, who would win the Oscar.

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Even films that won Globes but not for Best Drama Film or Best Comedy/Musical Film got a SAG booster shot as a preview of their eventual Best Picture wins. Two-time Globe champ Birdman lost comedy/musical film to The Grand Budapest Hotel but won ensemble at SAG. Parasite, which under Globe rules at the time could not compete in either top film category as a non-English language film, won the non-English language film Globe before its cast pulled off a stunning victory at SAG. You can even add Everything Everywhere All at Once, which was a way stronger contender overall than Birdman or Parasite, but it took four SAGs after only nabbing Globes for Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan.

Anora is predicted to receive two SAG nominations on Wednesday. Madison is in first place in the lead actress odds and ought to be safe, but the film is in the precarious fifth spot in the ensemble odds behind four much more ensemble-y and/or SAG-friendly films, Conclave, Wicked, Emilia Pérez, and Sing Sing. Right behind it in sixth place is A Complete Unknown, another mainstream film in line with SAG-AFTRA’s sensibilities. Anora has a terrific supporting cast backing Madison that comes to life in the second act when it turns into a screwball comedy. But the film could easily go the way of many top Oscar contenders that score individual SAG bids but miss ensemble, like The Power of the Dog, Nomadland, Marriage Story, Green Book, The Shape of Water, and La La Land. Green Book and The Shape of Water, of course, won Best Picture.

If Anora doesn’t make the ensemble cut, things get trickier, but let’s say it makes it along with the other predicted four. It probably would have a tough time winning against Conclave‘s across-the-board appeal, Wicked being a populist crowd-pleaser, Emilia Pérez being an industry fave, and Sing Sing being an inspirational, socially conscious underdog.

The comp would then be The Hurt Locker, which lost ensemble to Ingourious Basterds. However, The Hurt Locker is a flashy war drama that won the two other major guilds, Producers Guild Award and Directors Guild Award for Kathryn Bigelow, who would become the first woman to win the Best Director Oscar. SAG ensemble snubbee The Shape of Water also claimed those two prizes. Similarly, Green Book won PGA. Anora could certainly win PGA and DGA, but Corbet, the Best Director Oscar frontrunner, probably has the edge at DGA for his grand epic, and PGA feels like it’s anyone’s game in this very open year. Plus, much to the internet’s chagrin, we know there is a lot of passion for Emilia Pérez within the industry, perhaps more so than there is for Anora.

It’s also long been predicted that Anora would win the Best Original Screenplay Oscar and that would be part of its Best Picture package as a film with a low ceiling for nominations But in a post-Globes haze, even original screenplay feels shaky. If you’re on Team Anora, you’re probably grateful Conclave is in the adapted category at the Oscars. But Anora has formidable contenders in original in The Brutalist, Los Angeles Film Critics Association and National Society of Film Critics champ A Real Pain, which is more dialogue-heavy than Anora, and The Substance, the cool surprise of the season and exactly the kind of high-concept script the Academy likes the reward (see: Get Out, Everything Everywhere All at Once).

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If Baker loses Best Director and Madison loses Best Actress (she’s still first in the odds, but The Substance‘s Demi Moore has already risen one spot, as of press time, to fourth place since her Globe win and poignant speech), and Anora just wins screenplay and Best Picture, that would be the Spotlight package. But, again, Spotlight won ensemble, and it also benefited from a three-way race against two divisive films, DGA champ The Revenant and PGA champ The Big Short. It was very much a consensus choice that was about an important topic as well, and there’s something “feel-good” about watching good people (investigative journalists) take down bad people (abusers in the Catholic Church). Anora, which could obviously win screenplay without Best Picture, tackles wealth and class disparity through a sex worker’s whirlwind romance, but it ends on a bittersweet (but fitting) note.

The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez, and Conclave likely aren’t as polarizing (in the industry at least) as The Revenant and The Big Short were, but support could still be diffuse between them, which could help Anora. But Anora‘s Globes goose egg might just be indicative of something many pundits and awards fans have felt throughout this Oscar season in which nothing has felt “right” as a Best Picture favorite: It’s a Best Picture placeholder at No. 1 off the back of its Palme d’Or victory, but it’s probably too slight to win and could get usurped by a film or two with more passion behind it from the industry and elsewhere (the Globes are not industry).

So Anora‘s Oscar path has narrowed and could become even more narrow very soon, but it’s not out of it. And if there’s anything the past few years and this unpredictable season has taught us, it’s that stats are useful until they’re not and anything can happen.