Scottie Barnes’ inconsistent but impressive performance not enough to boost Raptors

Scottie Barnes doesn’t attempt a shot for the first four minutes of the Toronto Raptors’ game against the Memphis Grizzlies. He is quiet, passing up the ball not after creating for his teammates, but before, letting them do the initiation work. When he does shoot, it comes on a post-up, a kick-out, a re-post, and a missed mid-range jumper. He is the last Raptors’ starter to put a number in the box score — an assist, a rebound, a shot attempt, a point, a turnover: anything. 

Instead, the Raptors rely on Kelly Olynyk as a spot-up shooter, Ochai Agbaji as a driver and cutter, and other such diverse looks. It works fine (the defence, on the other hand, is a problem).  But the Grizzlies race out to a huge lead and quickly, double digits before Barnes goes to the bench. Toronto’s defence is passive, not offering much in the way of help in the gaps or at the rim. Ja Morant drives to the rim with ease, blasting past Toronto’s would-be defenders, and collects assists as he redirects the ball around the court. 

It’s not that Barnes’ season has been bad. Far from it. He’s tied with his career high in points per game, set last year, and averaging more than a full assist per game more than his career high. His excellent defence from last year has stayed around (even if it didn’t against Memphis), as his work on the ball has been calm and difficult to evade, while his work off the ball has shrunk the court enormously.

But he’s doing the extra work on more than 10 extra touches per game as compared to last year. And he’s settling a ton for his jumper. After attempting 2.8 triples per game in his first few contests, since he returned from breaking his orbital bone, he’s launching almost seven per game. Some of that could be injury — after returning quickly from a sprained ankle, he shot 2-of-6 then 0-of-8 from deep in the next two games, for example. As he’s in the process of getting back his burst, he seems to be relying more on his jumper. Even in the next game, when he only attempted three triples, he attempted seven shots from the long mid-range. He shot well on those attempts, but he didn’t have a ton of scoring options beyond the jumper. 

“I’m not comfortable with that number at all,” said Darko Rajakovic of Barnes’ high 3-point rate a few weeks ago. “I want him to shoot more threes.”

He’s not cutting a ton, preferring to stand above the break while his teammates work to ensure they have a release valve if it doesn’t work out. That has value, but so too would movement. He is Toronto’s primary offensive creator, and he’s not doing a huge amount as an individual scorer. The creation for his teammates remains excellent. Stellar. Genius. But the scoring has not taken much of a jump from last season. Toronto spends half of its shot clock on occassions just trying to get him a touch, having to float the ball over his defender while he ‘posts’ far outside the 3-point line with 12 seconds left on the clock.

Every Grizzlies’ starter, as well one off the bench, score before Barnes does. Barnes’ first assist comes with three minutes remaining in the first quarter. He catches the ball, jab steps one way before driving the other, then swinging the ball to Davion Mitchell on the other side of the court for a wide-open triple. Barnes drills a catch-and-shoot triple on his next touch. He dimes up Jonathan Mogbo in the paint on the next touch. Then he sets a screen, catches on the short roll, fakes a pass, triple threat, rips, drives, ambles into the paint, and finally drills a turnaround jumper.

For as invisible as his first stint was, his second drags Toronto right back into the game. The lead was nearly 20. It is eight heading into the second frame. 

There are a few facts of the case. First and most importantly, Barnes is an exceptional player. His brilliant games are no mirage — they are the rule, not the exception. He is one of the best passers in the league, and now one of the most impactful defenders, too, if not on every night. Yet he has not been consistent from night to night, from quarter to quarter. If injury is limiting him from reaching the paint and creating layups and free throws for himself — and he needs those to be an efficient scorer — then why is he playing instead of resting? If it’s not injury, then why has his own individual scoring been so restricted?

Barnes opens the second quarter by launching a pull-up triple on the break, which he short-arms. Then he has a chance at an offensive rebound and doesn’t chase it, then is beaten down the court and doesn’t close out hard enough to deter a corner triple, which the Grizzlies cash. 

The problem for Barnes is the same as it is for all the Raptors: It’s almost impossible for effort to be your calling card when games stop mattering, when the team can’t get healthy, when the ennui of the winter comes calling and the playoffs won’t matter until 2026. At some point, Sisyphus must have stopped pushing the boulder up the hill, certainly he would have if he had been given the choice. The Raptors are given the choice as to whether they’ll offer 100 percent every night. Of course they won’t. It’s only human nature. 

Barnes sits again. The Raptors fumble the ball away, Gradey Dick tossing the ball to Jake LaRavia for no reason at all, then Barrett and Dick fighting for an otherwise uncontested rebound that falls out of bounds. But Memphis stops slashing into the paint, stops cutting, stops hitting shots. Toronto’s deficit shrinks further.

Barnes hasn’t been himself recently, sure. But the same can be said of anyone. You shine the magnifying glass on any individual, you’ll see the imperfections loud and clear. But Barnes is the leader, the best player, the franchise. His imperfections matter the most. 

He’s back in. He misses at the rim, grabs an offensive rebound surrounded by white shirts, and tosses back in the layup. Toronto’s down one now. 

Barnes is in the post, sees the weak-side defender sinking to prepare to help, and whips a visionary cross-court pass to Ochai Agbaji, who misses the open triple. Dick is picked on a spin move. Scotty Pippen jr. blows past Barnes in transition and finishes an uncontested layup. The lead grows. 

But Barnes is back in the post and hits a short one-legged fadeaway. Barrett drives for an and-1. He doesn’t get a ton of touches on the next few possessions, as he drifts around the perimeter while Kelly Olynyk works. The Grizzlies lock back in for the first time all quarter, and they’re up eight after the first half. 

He’s back in the post to start the half and misses a turnaround fadeaway. But then a pump and drive, no one steps up, and it’s an uncontested dunk. It’s his first driving points of the night. Followed by a pick and roll that sees him travel as he gathers into the paint. Later, a drive on Morant that is called (questionably) for a push-off. You can hear Barnes yelling, “oh my god,” with extreme exasperation through the broadcast. Whether it’s his fault or not, the drives aren’t working. 

Then, one does! He drives in transition and finds Olynyk on a 45 cut for a layup. And and-1 in transition. He pushes after a make and slides a slick bounce pass through the entire defence to find a back-cutting Agbaji. Later, he drives baseline and whips a weak-hand pass to Mitchell in the other corner for an open triple. This is maybe the most impressive stretch, to my eye — he’s not doing the work in the post. It’s more diverse, coming in waves from different areas. That’s what Barnes will be like when he’s optimized. Unpredictable. This stretch in the middle of the third is unpredictable. 

But Toronto doesn’t find itself back in the game, not really. The defence is too inconsistent, the talent differential too wide. Not to mention the size and athleticism gap. When you’re smaller, less athletic, and less talented, it’s tough to climb that hill. Memphis scores 121 in three quarters. The defence is just miserable, and Barnes is not able to drag the team behind him to a middling performance or better. He’s done it before. Not in this one. Toronto allows a franchise-worst 155 points when the dust settles.

The drives continue in the fourth. Not to any great measure of success. But they’re at least there. Barnes drives into a crowd and has to kick out. Then another drive, and he seems to draw contact, but nothing is called. Later, after Darko Rajakovic is tossed for asking with some colourful language why Barnes didn’t get foul calls on those drives, Barnes sets a pinch screen and sees a bounce pass into his lap for the easy dunk. Then he drills a triple. Slips an off-ball screen to cut to the rim for an and-1. Diversity in touches is where his money will be made. 

What will Optimus Prime Scottie Barnes look like? He’ll probably be driving the ball 15 or 20 times a game, reaching the paint with impunity, whirring passes to shooters or cutters when anyone on the defence over- or under-reacts, and destroying everything on defence. For stretches, Barnes does that now. Long stretches. But as with the Raptors as a whole, Barnes isn’t going to be truly great until he’s consistent above all else. Or is he not going to be consistent until the Raptors are great, and the games matter? There’s a tension there. 

He checks out with five minutes left in the game, the lead ballooned to 30. He finished with an efficient 26 points and only five 3-pointers attempted. Barnes improved dramatically as the game aged, but his improvement wasn’t enough to lift the team’s performance. That’s what happens when the team doesn’t play much defence. Barnes is starting to look more like himself. But until the team is healthy, and tries very hard again, and gets better at all things defence, it may not be enough to make the Raptors competitive. The losing streak stands at nine. Despite Barnes’ inconsistent but impressive performance, there remains no end in sight.

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