NFL playoff picture: What does Ravens-Texans mean for AFC standings

The Ravens face the Texans in Houston on Christmas Day. We break down what the game means for the NFL playoff picture.

A rematch of last season’s AFC Divisional Round game is on the Christmas Day slate in Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season, with the Houston Texans playing host to the Baltimore Ravens.

Oh, and there will be a Beyoncé performance at halftime, so there is that too.

While both the Ravens and the Texans have clinched playoff spots — and Houston the AFC South — there are postseason implications on the line in this game. Let’s break them down.

Ravens playoff picture

Baltimore enters Week 17 with a 10-5 record, tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers at the top of the AFC North. However, the Steelers currently have the advantage due to tiebreakers. The two teams split their season series, but Pittsburgh holds the edge in the next tiebreaker, AFC record.

At the moment the Steelers have a 7-3 record in the conference, while the Ravens have a 6-4 record.

Still, Baltimore has a chance to win the division if they win their final two games — Wednesday at Houston and then in the season finale against the Cleveland Browns — and the Steelers lose at least one of their final two games. Pittsburgh hosts the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day, and then they take on the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 18.

Texans playoff picture

As for Houston, they have already clinched a playoff spot, and the AFC South.

What remains to be decided for the Texans is their seed in the postseason. At the moment their 9-6 record has them in the fourth spot, one behind 10-5 Pittsburgh.

Houston is locked into either the third seed, or the fourth seed. They cannot catch either Kansas City or Buffalo for the top two spots in the conference. But they can finish third, provided they win out and both Baltimore and Pittsburgh lose their final two games. That would put Houston on 11-6 for the season, while in this scenario both the Ravens and the Steelers finish with matching 10-7 records.

Pittsburgh would win the division, thanks to the tiebreakers outlined above.

However, there are also some other tiebreakers to consider.

Tiebreaker implications

There is a scenario where Wednesday’s game between the Ravens and the Texans helps decide who is the No. 3 seed, and who is the No. 4 seed.

If the Texans win out, they will finish at 11-6. Then if Baltimore wins in their season finale — and in this scenario the Steelers lose their final two games — the Ravens too would finish at 11-6.

But with Houston beating Baltimore on Christmas Day, the Texans would be the No. 3 seed, and the Ravens the No. 4 seed.