Trump won last week's spending battle on points

For politics junkies, last weekend’s funding fight offered “Deja vu all over again.” There were breathless reports of impending shutdowns and calamities, reversals and finger-pointing aplenty. 

For the rest of America, it ended as usual: nothing seemingly happened. Between the two perspectives lies insight into Donald Trump’s next two years in office.

For those who missed Washington’s latest funding fireworks, Congress had again failed to pass its annual spending bills on time (by September 30) and had been operating on what is known as a "continuing resolution" — a short-term legislative device intended to give Congress a bit more time to do what it has been unable to do in a much longer time.

Lo and behold, the expiration of this device was finally approaching its deadline (Friday at midnight) without resolution. So, another short-term spending bill, this time 1,547 pages, was unveiled on Tuesday — in other words, business as usual.  Then the Trump transition team weighed in.

The incoming DOGE leadership of Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy stopped the bipartisan gravy train in its tracks. Called out, Republican supporters peeled off and the bill had to be pulled. Then a Trump-supported replacement continuing resolution was defeated. Not until Friday night was a vastly scaled-back continuing resolution (of roughly 100 pages) compromise passed by the House, which flew through the Senate and was signed by President Biden. 

What did all this strung-out spending sturm und drang tell us about Trump’s next two years?  Listen to the Left, and it presages failure; hear Trump’s most avid acolytes, and it was an unequivocal victory. The truth lies somewhere in between, but much closer to the latter than to the former.

The first thing worth noting is how completely the impending Trump administration, almost a month from taking office, preempted the actual incumbent presidential administration, although you could be forgiven for not noticing. President Biden was a complete non-factor.  Advantage: Trump.

Trump’s fiscal foray also upended a bloated bipartisan compromise that would have assuredly passed on its own. When you pare back a piece of legislation by 90 percent, there's a lot left out — most assuredly unknown except by those who had put it in. That the remaining 10 percent still passed overwhelmingly tells you that the left-out 90 percent wasn’t necessary for passage.  Advantage: Trump.

And despite all the hand wringing, the government apparently didn’t miss a beat. Again, advantage Trump.

The only notable thing Trump didn’t get was a multi-year debt limit extension. Disadvantage: Trump.

Plus, Trump made three big points in his fiscal foray:

First, he’s the most powerful politician in Washington—even before technically being in Washington. No one else could have derailed this legislation and done so in just a matter of hours.  Equally, he saw a compromise assembled with almost equal alacrity. 

Second, the disruption he promised is already here. And more is coming. Trump supporters wanted a disruption of the status quo. They’re going to get it — in fact, they're getting it ahead of schedule.

Third, Trump remains a master of the element of surprise.  Despite having seemingly no time to derail a deal with broad leadership support, little time remaining, and with limited formal leverage (a month from now, Trump can veto what he doesn’t like), he still fought successfully on comparatively unfavorable political terrain.

There are also some points worth remembering for the next two years. 

Trump will have far more power over the next two years than he had over the approximately four days of this budget fight. Republicans will actually control the Senate as well as the House. Republican majorities in the next Congress will be small, but they’ll still be majorities.  Rather than needing to reach bipartisan compromises, they will have it in their power to negotiate only internally.

Because Trump’s Republicans will have small majorities, he needs to pick his fights — and his adversaries — carefully.

With respect to the fight over the debt limit, Trump didn’t need to fight this battle now. Republicans can deal with the debt limit singlehandedly through reconciliation legislation, which Democrats cannot filibuster, in the next Congress. Why risk the defeat that happened and give critics something to seize on?

Second: it can be perilous to threaten primaries for recalcitrant Republicans before you’re even in office. Do the math: these are fights that could extend for two years but won’t offer a payback until 2027 (if ever). Instead, focus on the dozen or so Democrats in House districts you won this November. Perhaps you influence them now (immediate gain) or strengthen your House majority in 2027. And if neither occurs, you’ve still lost nothing: They’re already your opposition. 

Tally up last week’s fiscal fight up and Trump, while not winning by knockout, at least won on points.

J.T. Young is the author of the new book, "Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left," from RealClear Publishing. He has more than three decades’ experience working in Congress, the Department of Treasury, and OMB, and representing a Fortune 20 company.