The 12 Oscar Contenders of Christmas

The awards circus takes a two-week break around the holidays,* returning on January 5 for the Golden Globes. That makes the week before Christmas the perfect time to zoom out and take stock of the wider race. Which Oscar hopefuls have done enough to secure a place in the Best Picture ten, and which titles are still on the bubble? I’ve made a list and checked it twice, and by my count, there are six films that feel locked, plus another six fighting for the last four spots. Let’s run down the contenders, starting with one that’s both naughty and nice:

The Top Six

Anora
We kicked off this season without a clear front-runner, so the Cannes Palme d’Or winner was awarded pole position almost by default. You might say pundits were subconsciously sorting alphabetically, but months later, Sean Baker’s film still appears to be leading the pack — though with tastemakers spreading their trophies around, it doesn’t feel like it has pulled away from the competition, either. That could be for the best: In a Best Picture race that often privileges likability, Baker’s screwball comedy benefits from its underdog scrappiness, a quality that has also made star Mikey Madison into one of the few sure things in the unpredictable Best Actress race. Supporting actor Yura Borisov getting traction for his unshowy, reactive performance could be a sign voters may be ready to put a ring on it.

The Brutalist
How much were Oppenheimer’s Oscar fortunes boosted by its blockbuster box office? We’re about to find out since The Brutalist is essentially Oppenheimer without the grosses: a work of totemic ambition and weighty themes with a booming score and staggering lead performance. This year’s three-hour epic is actually performing slightly better than its predecessor through tastemaker season, but that’s fool’s gold. While critics correctly assumed Christopher Nolan didn’t need a boost, a drama about Jewish assimilation and mid-century architecture seems the sort of thing worth sticking up for. Also in its corner are the boys of Letterboxd, who have preemptively declared The Brutalist the best film of the year. Whether Oscar voters consider the concrete is yet to be determined.

Emilia Pérez
Jacques Audiard’s musical was never going to be a critics pick, but any doubts about its awards upside were put to rest when the film dominated the Golden Globe nominations earlier this month, then led the field at this week’s Oscar shortlists. Industry voters love this movie, and not just the ones you’d expect: At the Gothams, I caught up with the producer of a contender that could not be more different from Emilia Pérez, who named Audiard’s film her favorite of the fall. There’s a lot of Oscars-villain potential here over the film’s handling of trans issues, cartel violence, and Spanish dialogue, but Audiard & Co. can console themselves that they’ve got just as much potential to become this year’s overall nominations leader.

Wicked
The biggest shake-up in the Oscars race so far has been the addition of Wicked, which is dancing through life after its half-billion-dollar haul. The Broadway adaptation now looks like a certain Best Picture nominee and is contending in multiple craft categories as well as Supporting Actress. As far as its chances of taking the whole thing, I’ll note that it has been over 20 years since a film won Best Picture without winning Screenplay or Director, two categories in which Wicked is unlikely to be a major player. A sentimental man might recall that the movie to pull it off was another musical: 2002’s Chicago.

Conclave
Like The Substance, the papal drama was a surprise box-office hit that became one of the most memed movies of the fall. Unlike The Substance, there are few doubts about whether this handsomely mounted effort about a bunch of gossipy cardinals will be in the Academy’s wheelhouse: It fits the new Academy’s preference for films that superficially resemble the Oscars bait of old but with a twist. (Or, in this case, several.) Ironically, Conclave is more a consensus pick than a passion play, leading to a fear that this could be a “nominated everywhere, wins nowhere” situation. But there’s always the Adapted Screenplay race for the film to hang its zucchetto on.

Dune: Part Two
As the highest-grossing title in this year’s field (at least worldwide, which is what matters in the Dune universe) and a film many critics agree is superior to its Oscar-winning predecessor, Part Two booked its ticket to the Best Picture dance long ago. But the knowledge that it’s the second film in a trilogy has taken away much of the impetus to award this particular installment. While the first Dune could more or less run the table in the craft categories, the new one faces tough competition from Wicked, The Brutalist, and more.

Also in the Mix

A Complete Unknown
How does it feel? Probably pretty good. Voters haven’t blanched at Timothée Chalamet’s Bob Dylan, and his performance is electric enough to power the surrounding film to major nominations from precursors like the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and AARP Movies for Grownups awards. Knowing the Academy’s weakness for music biopics, the pretty people behind the film can be excused for thinking they’ve got it made.

Nickel Boys
The Colson Whitehead adaptation was the toast of tastemaker season, earning numerous accolades for RaMell Ross’s sensitive direction and Jomo Fray’s innovative first-person cinematography. A challenging watch like Nickel Boys could be at risk of being supplanted by cozier titles, but I’ll feel more confident if Supporting Actress hopeful Aujanue Ellis-Taylor follows up her Critics Choice nomination at SAG.

A Real Pain
Can Kieran Culkin power this little dramedy to a Best Picture berth? If we accept that Culkin’s armful of critics’ prizes means he’s about to sweep the season, the odds are good: You have to go back to Beginners’ Christopher Plummer to find a Supporting Actor Oscar winner from a film outside the Best Picture field. His co-star Jesse Eisenberg should figure into the Oscars race too — not in Best Actor but in Original Screenplay, where this talky two-hander feels like a natural fit.

Sing Sing
Sing Sing’s own Cinderella run through the tastemakers was derailed when it garnered only a single nomination from the Golden Globes. (Did Globes voters, whose record on race is hardly sterling, assume they had already checked a box by nominating Nickel Boys, another film with a predominantly Black cast?) Anecdotally, this is the awards title with the lowest profile among average moviegoers, but A24 is rereleasing the film next month to try to change that. On the bright side, a heart-forward film like Sing Sing should never be counted out.

September 5
A fixture of early-season predictions, the journalism drama has since been bumped by buzzier titles, but a Golden Globe nod for Best Drama proves it’s not entirely out of the race. Still, this sober contender has a lot of work to do and will hardly be helped by the fact that its strongest category, Editing, is more likely to be an accompaniment to a Best Picture bid rather than a launchpad. Even the film’s biggest booster, THR’s Scott Feinberg, has dropped September 5 from No. 1 on his predictions all the way down to No. 7.

The Substance
We got so used to being surprised by The Substance that merely meeting expectations at the Oscars shortlists — where it got in for Makeup but not for Sound or Visual Effects — was taken as a letdown. Don’t allow that to distract from the body-horror smash’s amassing a track record befitting a legitimate contender. If this weren’t a movie that ends with a misbegotten monstrosity vomiting up a single perfect breast, it would be a no-brainer. And with an ever-evolving Academy, it still may be. As This Had Oscar Buzz’s Chris Feil pointed out recently, one should not neglect the self-congratulation factor: By nominating a film that’s all about how older actresses are overlooked, individual Academy voters can pat themselves on the back for not being part of the problem.

*Gold Rush and Oscar Futures are also taking a break for the holidays. The next edition of this column will arrive January 3.

Oscar Futures: He’s Sárt of Like a Brutal Pórsón

Every week between now and January 17, when the nominations for the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscar race. In our “Oscar Futures” column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.

Best Picture

Up ⬆ The Brutalist

Having been penciled in for a Best Picture berth since September, The Brutalist gets its ribbon-cutting moment this weekend. Love it or hate it — and it’s mostly the former — critics agree that Brady Corbet’s film treats greatness as a genre as much as an ambition. “The Brutalist is about a single building in much the same way There Will Be Blood tells the story of a single oil company,” says Keith Phipps. “It’s one self-contained narrative that serves as an emblem of another, much bigger story … nothing less than the image of America’s future and its understanding of its past.” A biopic of fictional architect László Tóth, the film is both about, and an example of, a titanic creative vision. “Make a building, or make a movie — but if you’re thinking small, go home,” says Jocelyn Noveck.

Down ⬇ The Room Next Door

Among the huddled journalists at Venice, Pedro Almodóvar’s first English-language feature was not seen as a particular career highlight. Then it won the Golden Lion. Shows us! That trophy inflated expectations for The Room Next Door above what was reasonable, though as the euthanasia melodrama rolls into theaters this weekend, the hype has cooled. “It’s a strange, baggy thing,” says the Irish Times’ Tara Brady, who nevertheless concludes, “a lesser offering from the great director is better than none.”

Current Predix

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, Wicked

Best Director

Up ⬆ Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

It’s easy to clown on Corbet’s naked attempt to place himself inside the cinematic canon — aren’t today’s directors supposed to be too cool for things like that? — and if you’re inclined to roll your eyes at a certain type of straight white man, you may find The Brutalist’s critical hosannas infuriating. But you can’t deny the scale and scope of his accomplishment as well as the ingenuity required to make this movie for less than $10 million. (His mischievous sense of humor is less obvious but plays an integral role in leavening the film’s pomposity.) Corbet is essentially a European director in the body of an American. For this branch, that’s the best of both worlds.

Even = Sean Baker, Anora

If you wanted proof that people on the internet can sometimes be a little weird about Sean Baker, the news that he did not employ an intimacy coordinator on Anora — he had offered one to star Mikey Madison, who declined — turned into a multiday controversy over theoretical feelings of discomfort from the film’s extras. (Many of these critics were so concerned with protecting hypothetical women that they had no choice but to turn their fire on Madison as well.) This is what happens when you graduate from avatar of indie authenticity to an Oscar front-runner. Who said the ’90s were dead?

Current Predix

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez; Sean Baker, Anora; Edward Berger, Conclave; Brady Corbet, The Brutalist; Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Best Actor

Up ⬆ Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

You can make a case for any of the top four men in Best Actor, but for now Brody remains the presumptive front-runner. As the titular Brutalist, he’s “breaking apart because he refuses to bend, and his tale is one of searching for life by courting death,” says Nick Schager of The Daily Beast. “Brody brilliantly captures the irreconcilable wars going on inside his head and his heart.” Since he has won before, in controversial fashion, others will have stronger narratives, but that hasn’t kept influential groups like the New York Film Critics Circle from getting behind his candidacy.

Up ⬆ Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Is Chalamet secretly Brody’s biggest competition? More and more pundits are warming to the idea, though that could just be recency bias as Complete Unknown’s embargo lifted last week. (“Timmy is brilliant here and completely believable, better than the film itself,” says Caryn James.) There would be fitting symmetry in Chalamet becoming the youngest-ever Best Actor winner by beating the current record holder. But remember, it’s a record for a reason — were the Academy to go for an actor under 30, the times would be a-changing indeed.

Current Predix

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist; Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown; Daniel Craig, Queer; Colman Domingo, Sing Sing; Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Best Actress

Up ⬆ Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door

Besides this film’s serving as an earnest treatise about the right to die, one suspects the point of The Room Next Door was finally to allow Almodóvar to work with his favorite grandes dames of English-language cinema. In a statement of unity, both Swinton and co-star Julianne Moore are running as leads, a move that has hamstrung their awards prospects: It’s hard enough for one critics’ darling to crack Best Actress this year, let alone two (though Swinton at least got nominated at the Globes). As a war correspondent who enlists a friend to help her go on her own terms, Swinton’s character embodies an Almodóvarian “fantasy of set directing one’s own death, down to the moment, location, and outfit worn,” says our own Alison Willmore. Still, “touches of wryness and impatience save Swinton’s performance from being too reliant on radiant serenity.”

Up ⬆ Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door

Moore’s performance as an anxious author has received fewer laurels but just as much praise. “No contemporary A-lister has mastered the art of listening on-screen as Moore has; she has the ability to transform herself into a kind of psychic divining rod,” raves Adam Nayman. In the case of The Room Next Door, placing the two stars on equal footing was more important than selling out for the win. While those decisions get a lot easier when both leads have already won Oscars, it’s a reminder that, for some contenders, awards season is about more than trophies.

Current Predix

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez; Angelina Jolie, Maria; Nicole Kidman, Babygirl; Mikey Madison, Anora

Best Supporting Actor

Up ⬆ Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Playing a wealthy patron who gets his hooks into Brody’s architect, Pearce is every bit as monumental as his co-star. It’s a “magnificent performance,” says Justin Chang. “Even in the character’s most transparently manipulative moments, Pearce endows him with a seductive conviviality.” He’s at the center of the film’s most alienating sequence, which critics have dinged for literalizing a dynamic that could have stayed subtext, but that shouldn’t hamper his chances. The film’s toxic bromance should ensure that Brody and Pearce feel like a package deal.

Up ⬆ Harris Dickinson, Babygirl

“Is this the year Harris Dickinson goes from anonymous hunk to onymous hunk?” I asked after Babygirl’s Venice premiere. As A24 places the erotic drama under the Christmas tree, waiting to be unwrapped next week, prerelease media hype is spotlighting Dickinson as a leader in a new wave of sensitive leading men. Not bad for a guy I always used to mix up with Callum Turner and George MacKay.

Current Predix

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain; Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown; Guy Pearce, The Brutalist; Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Even = Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

A mostly unseen presence in The Brutalist’s first half, Jones comes to the fore in the film’s second half. Unfortunately, that section is almost unanimously regarded as the film’s weaker half, and reviews for her performance are mixed. “After Jones gets past her standard suffering-wifey thing … her character gets genuinely interesting,” says Amy Nicholson, while Brian Tallerico dubs her “a bit miscast.” Lord knows this category loves a wife, and The Brutalist had been considered strong enough to make pundits confident in Jones’s chances. But a miss at the Critics Choice nominations could be a sign this bid is built on shaky ground.

Up ⬆ Margaret Qualley, The Substance

Spare a moment for Qualley, whose nominations from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice last week were taken more as proof of The Substance’s overall strength than a sign that she’s a legit contender in her own right. I’ll still need to see her be nominated by actual industry groups — or, failing that, at a ceremony with only five nominees — to believe, but SAG should be the perfect proving ground. Will the guild’s normies follow the rules and remember that Qualley and Demi Moore are one?

Current Predix

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson; Ariana Grande, Wicked; Felicity Jones, The Brutalist; Isabella Rossellini, Conclave; Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez