Trade Profile: Nolan Arenado, 3B

Nolan Arenado, 3B

Position: 3B B/T: R/R

Age: 33 (04/16/1991)

2024 Traditional Stats: 635 PA, .272/.325/.394/.719, 157 H, 16 HR, 71 RBI

2024 Advanced Stats: 102 wRC+, 14.5% K%, 6.9% BB%, .296 BABIP, .297 xwOBA, 3.1 fWAR, 2.5 bWAR

This can probably characterized as a move that would have been more exciting in 2019 or even 2022. There is still some value in what Nolan Arenado brings to the table, though, in my opinion.

While with the Colorado Rockies, Arenado was an MVP candidate. He was arguably the best third baseman in baseball and was posting elite offensive numbers along with his sterling glove. From 2015 to 2019, Arenado hit .300/.362/.575 with a 129 OPS+ and averaged 6.5 bWAR a year. Pretty good as Larry David would say. That stellar play helped earn him an eight-year extension worth $260 million, which notably came with a no-trade clause.

The Rockies quickly decided that they could not handle the contract, however, and moved him to the St. Louis Cardinals ahead of the 2021 season. They had almost no trade leverage and thus ended up eating a portion of his remaining money despite a light return, which included the likes of Austin Gomber and Elehuris Montero.

His first year in St. Louis was fine, but it represented a far cry from his numbers in Colorado as he slashed .255/.312/.494 with a 119 OPS+. Despite the slip in offensive output, he still posted 4.0 bWAR due to his sparkling glove.

In 2022, though, he had his best season (league-adjusted) by hitting .293/.358/.533 with a 151 OPS+. His defense, to go along with the offensive output, gave him a 7.7 bWAR season, the highest of his career. The funny story, though, is that his contract had an opt-out after 2022 and despite coming off an incredible campaign, Arenado opted into the remainder of it.

In his two subsequent seasons, Arenado has hit .269/.320/.426 with a 104 OPS+ and averaged a 2.45 bWAR. Being one of the greatest defenders ever to play third base has helped keep his production afloat, but the offensive trends are not great. Arenado has never been a high strikeout guy, and that’s remained the case despite his declining production in 2023 and 2024. His contact rate is roughly the same too, and the only aspect of his game that has truly declined is his hard-hit rate. I would venture that’s a result of diminished bat speed and he is on a mission to make contact at all costs.

St. Louis is in a re-tooling period and Arenado wants out. The Cardinals, by all accounts, have no problem obliging his request. Remember that NTC I mentioned? Well, Arenado has six teams he would waive it for, per MLB.com’s John Denton: the Boston Red Sox, Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Angels and Los Angeles Dodgers. Arenado is a Southern California native, so his intent here seems to be winning or being close to home. He’s not bluffing either, just ask the Houston Astros.

Trade Package

Cash considerations. In all seriousness, the return would be quite minimal. The Cardinals were reportedly willing to pay Arenado’s contract down to about $40-45 million remaining over three years in the nixed deal with Houston. I would guess they want something of a return rather than just a straight salary dump. Given that Chaim Bloom is about to take over as the team’s president of baseball operations, I think they will target a lower-level minor-league prospect with decent metrics rather than a “fancy” name. Perhaps they could also be intrigued by Brett Baty as a potential replacement for Arenado.

The NTC also minimizes the Cardinals’ leverage. I think it will come down to the Mets, Phillies and Red Sox. I do wonder if the Mets would be willing to take on Arenado’s full contract and add Ryan Helsley to the deal as well, though all signs point to St. Louis holding on to its All-Star closer for now.

Mets Receive:

• 3B Nolan Arenado

Cardinals Receive:

• IF Brett Baty
• RHP Dom Hamel
• Cash considerations

My Thoughts

Objectively speaking, getting a player who puts up 2-3 bWAR for $13-$15 million a year is a good deal. This would effectively mean Mark Vientos has to play first base, which I think is reasonable. Vientos has limitations with his glove at third, so odds are he will be at first at some point in his career. We’re not at Wilmer Flores at shortstop, J.D. Davis (at every position) or even Lucas Duda in the outfield levels of bad, but we also do not have to pretend he’s a good defensive third baseman at this stage, but he could always improve.

Ironically, Boston is attempting to do the same with Rafael Devers. We also know David Stearns does value run prevention quite a bit. Last offseason, for example, the Mets signed Harrison Bader to play center field and moved Brandon Nimmo to left field.

Now, with that said, I think the better option if you want a third baseman is Alex Bregman. I mean, why not? Steve Cohen just handed out the largest contract in sports to Juan Soto, and we know he’s willing to blow past any sense of reasonable limits. He also has a penchant for liking infielders from the 2017 – 2021 Astros to play third base in Queens. If you’re in the market for a third baseman, why not get the best option?

If that falls through, then Arenado would make sense. I think Pete Alonso versus Arenado is an interesting debate. Both have declined on offense. but I think Alonso is still clearly the better hitter. However, their overall values would likely even out because of how they shake out on the defensive spectrum. I think my ranking would be: Bregman, mysterious trade candidate, Alonso and then Arenado. It’s a very slight nod to Alonso for his offense, but I could easily be persuaded into Arenado over him.

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