What Does the End of Assad’s Regime Mean for Syria and the Middle East?

The United Nations Security Council met on December 17 to discuss Syria’s transitional period following the end of Assad’s regime. Credit: UN Photo/Manuel Elías

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)

The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad came about following a series of coordinated offensive missions spearheaded by the Syrian opposition which resulted in the seizure of the capital city Damascus. In the days following the fall of Assad’s government, the Syrian Civil War has reached a phase of heightened insecurity, plunging Syria into a state of nationwide insecurity.

On December 7, the Syrian opposition, also known as the Southern Operation Room , led by the Islamic political organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, coordinated an offensive mission in the Rif Dimashq region of Syria, resulting in the Syrian Arab Army withdrawing their forces from Damascus. This, coupled with a concurrent offensive mission, led by the opposition and the Syrian National Army, resulted in the rebels seizing control of Damascus and Homs, marking the end of Assad’s regime in Syria.

For approximately 53 years, the Assad clan has exercised authoritarian rule over Syria, with an extensively documented history of mass incarcerations, executions, and violations of international humanitarian law.

According to a press release from the International Committee of the Red Cross (IRC), during Assad’s 13 year rule over Syria, there have been 35,000 documented cases of enforced disappearances, with accurate numbers likely being far larger.

In a press release issued by Amnesty International, Secretary General Agnès Callamard emphasized the brutality of the Assad family’s rule, saying, “Under the rule of Bashar al-Assad, and before him his father Hafez al-Assad, Syrians have been subjected to a horrifying catalogue of human rights violations that caused untold human suffering on a vast scale. This included attacks with chemical weapons, barrel bombs, and other war crimes, as well as murder, torture, enforced disappearance and extermination that amount to crimes against humanity.”

Following Assad’s departure, thousands of Syrian civilians flooded the streets to celebrate. World leaders also expressed their satisfaction with the end of Assad’s regime. In a televised speech, U.S. president Joe Biden said “At long last, the Assad regime has fallen. This regime brutalized, tortured, and killed hundreds of thousands of innocent Syrians. The fall of the regime is a fundamental act of justice.”

“The Syrian people have suffered under Assad’s barbaric regime for too long and we welcome his departure. Our focus is now on ensuring a political solution prevails, and peace and stability is restored,” said United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Other nations such as France, Canada, and Germany, have indicated relief after Assad’s fall.

The United Nations (UN) and the European Union (EU) have reported plans to further monitor the developing situation in Syria and facilitate a peaceful transition of power. “Our priority is to ensure security in the region. I will work with all the constructive partners, in Syria and in the region. The process of rebuilding Syria will be long and complicated and all parties must be ready to engage constructively,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas in a social media statement posted to X (formerly known as Twitter). The UN’s special envoy for Syria, Geir Pederson, called for urgent talks in Geneva to discuss measures that will be taken to achieve an “orderly political transition.”

Following Assad’s removal from office, the overall security situation in Syria has become increasingly volatile. According to figures from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), clashes between armed coalitions remain regular in Syria, particularly in Aleppo and Al-Raqqa. Since the escalation of hostilities in late November, an estimated 1.1 million people in Syria have been internally displaced, particularly in Aleppo, Idleb, Hama and Homs.

According to a report from the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), civilian casualties in Syria have risen significantly since the escalation of hostilities, with hundreds having been killed or injured from November to December 8. North-west Syria has seen the most violence, with over 75 civilians having been killed, including 28 children and 11 women. At least 282 others have sustained critical injuries as well, including 106 children and 56 women.

Partners of the UN have discovered at least 52 minefields scattered across Syria in the first ten days of December. Syria’s healthcare system has seen considerable disruptions due to damage from warfare and looting. Hospitals have become overwhelmed due to the sheer influx of injured persons, with psychological distress and trauma being widespread, particularly in children. Movement restrictions and curfews have significantly hampered humanitarian missions.

Additionally, Israel has capitalized on the chaos in Syria, targeting the nation’s military assets. Syria has long been recognized as an ally of Iran, an enemy of Israel. On December 10, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched 480 airstrikes on military operations and equipment in Damascus, Homs, Tartus, Latakia and Palmyra.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that these attacks were to guarantee the security of Israel as well as to achieve a “security zone free of heavy strategic weapons and terrorist infrastructures” in southern Syria. Despite the absence of Irani forces in Syria, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that these attacks were to guarantee a “security zone free of heavy strategic weapons and terrorist infrastructures” in southern Syria.

Nadav Shoshani, a spokesperson for the IDF, denied reports that Israeli forces are to head toward Damascus, but confirmed that they were operating beyond the buffer zone in Syria. However, Shoshani stated that Israel will not interfere with the “internal events” occurring in Syria.

Political analysts have expressed concern for the future of the Middle East following the toppling of Assad’s regime. Marco Carnelos, the former Middle East peace process coordinator special envoy for Syria for the Italian government, described Assad’s ousting as “one of the biggest geopolitical tectonic shifts since the Sykes-Picot agreements in 1916 and the understandings reached at the end of the First World War,” adding that certain nations, such as Iraq and Algeria will have a mixed reaction, while others “will breathe a sigh of relief.”

Arab states, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), will be particularly sensitive to further developments in Syria that are motivated by civilian dissidence, fearing that Syria could inspire similar reactions in other Middle Eastern sovereignties.

Sarah Leah Whitson, the Executive Director of Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), informed reporters that Arab states will “make efforts to contain HTS and build alliances with an HTS-government primarily guided by the hope that what emerges will be friendly to them and their interests” in the wake of this major transitional period of Syrian history.

Barbara Slavin, a fellow at the Washington-based Stimson Center and a lecturer in international affairs at George Washington University, states that the success of the Syrian opposition will likely “inspire jihadis in their own countries” to commit similar acts of rebellion and will also shine a light on the injustices committed by their governments.

The international community remains hopeful that the demise of Assad’s regime will bring forth an opportunity for positive development in Syria. Rima Farah, a lecturer at Northeastern University who studies the cultural and political history of the Middle East, opines that the end of Assad’s dictatorship provides the Syrian people with an indispensable opportunity to construct “a (democratic) state with a constitution that protects everyone.”

Political analysts have noted numerous parallels in the Syria situation and the protests that resulted in Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fleeing from Bangladesh to India. Both the Syria and Bangladesh situations were born of civilian discontent with their governments, resulting in protests and acts of rebellion, causing the incumbent leader to abandon their offices and flee to another country.

This is a testament to the importance of the civilian role in policy and decision-making processes. Furthermore, these two developments show that the government must be held accountable for measures that do not serve everyone equally.

Thameen Al-Kheetan, a spokesperson for the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner of Human Rights (OHCHR), told our correspondent that accountability is crucial in rebuilding Syria after 14 years of political instability. “This moment carries great hope as much as it raises huge challenges and legitimate uncertainty for Syrians. Accountability is one of the most important issues. Any transitional justice initiative should be inclusive, involve victims and ensure accountability for all past violations and abuses, those committed by the previous government and by all other parties to the conflict. To that end, the current authorities should ensure the preservation of evidence and facilitate the work of our Office as well as international mechanisms,” said Al-Kheetan.

Special Envoy Pederson added that it is imperative for Israeli bombardment and clashes between armed groups in Syria to stop to achieve substantial progress. “There is a real opportunity for change, but this opportunity needs to be grasped by the Syrians themselves and supported by the UN and the international community,” Pederson said.

IPS UN Bureau Report