Maybe I Was Too Harsh About Newest Cubs Free Agent
I still would have preferred a few other options, but I’ll admit it, I was too harsh when news first hit that the Cubs were nearing a free agent deal with catcher Carson Kelly. The two sides officially agreed to a two-year contract worth $11.5 million late last week.
The #Cubs today have agreed to terms with C Carson Kelly on a two-year major league contract.
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) December 14, 2024
Much of my initial frustration was directed at Kelly’s offense. After seeing some truly awful production from Cubs catchers in 2024 and still having PTSD from the Tucker Barnhart disaster in 2023, I did want the team to target a high ceiling hitter at the catcher position.
But hey, having Kyle Tucker in the middle of the lineup sure does help any drop off that could occur from the Cubs’t backstops.
At 30-years-old, Kelly has carved out a nice little career so far and is coming off one of his better overall seasons. Plus, when you dig into the numbers you could see how the Cubs can play with matchups to fully maximize production from not only Kelly, but Miguel Amaya as well.
Looking at his career splits, it’s easy to see how the Cubs will divvy up the playing time between Kelly and Amaya. Kelly has been pretty damn good against left-handed pitching, boasting a career 117 wRC+ vs. LHP. Since the start of 2021, Kelly has recorded an .802 OPS against lefties, slashing .256/.347/.455, with 14 home runs in 360 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Amaya has actually been much better vs. RHP, posting a 99 wRC+ compared to a 58 wRC+ vs. LHP in his two seasons with the Cubs.
Now, Kelly is making more than $5 million per year, so you do expect him to start more often than simply being limited to a platoon against left-handers. Still, it’s good to see that he’s clearly the answer vs. a lefty pitcher.
The bar is pretty low to improve behind the plate from 2024. Despite Amaya’s second-half resurgence, Cubs catchers ranked 25th with a combined 69 wRC+ and tied for the third-lowest fWAR at -0.2. Yan Gomes alone was so detrimental to the Cubs as he was worth -1.2 fWAR in 34 games before the team eventually parted ways with the veteran.
Looking ahead to 2025 projections, ZiPS loves the Cubs’ position group and between Kelly and Amaya, the catcher position is estimated to be worth 2.5 fWAR next season.
Fixed DH in the Cubs ZiPS Depth Chart graphic.
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) December 18, 2024
It will also come down a bit as we have pretty aggressive health on the depth charts. pic.twitter.com/mPCCN8dQiQ
Comparing figures from 2024, if Kelly and Amaya do match their 2025 projections, then Cubs catchers all of a sudden jump from bottom-five value to the middle of the pack among all 30 MLB teams.
So, I’ll take back the angst about the Cubs signing Kelly. As long as he doesn’t completely fall off a cliff at the plate, he should provide close to league-average offense, while giving solid to good defense behind the plate. Fingers crossed that Amaya continues to develop in a positive direction and suddenly one of the biggest flaws from the 2024 team isn’t much of a concern anymore in 2025.