Here’s why Demi Moore’s grisly ‘The Substance’ is surging in our Oscar odds

The Substance is poised to be a rare awards breakout in the horror genre thanks to jarring content and Moore’s star power.

The Substance is no one’s idea of a relaxed viewing experience. The darkly comic satire about beauty standards, aging, and how they all tie in to the entertainment industry is designed to sicken as well as enlighten, featuring grisly, gruesome body horror sequences. But the feature has not only held its own commercially at the box office — taking in $16 million domestic and $57 million worldwide on an estimated $17.5 million budget — but penetrated the cultural conversation in a way few movies outside the Hollywood mainstream have in 2024.

Over the past several days, the macabre film has started to soar in the Gold Derby odds for the 97th Academy Awards. It’s now predicted to qualify for Best Picture, rising to 10th place with 25-1 odds. The Substance director, writer, co-producer, and co-editor, Coralie Fargeat, is now favored to land both Best Director (fifth place) and Best Original Screenplay (fourth place) bids, while star Demi Moore and supporting actress Margaret Qualley are bubbling just under the leaders in seventh and eighth places, respectively. The Substance is also, notably, leading all contenders in the Best Hair and Makeup race, ahead of the likes of Wicked and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.

What’s behind this building passion for a movie that was released three months ago is a handful of factors. First, of course, is the film’s stellar nominations performance last week at both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice announcements. The Substance landed five at the Globes and seven with the Critics Choice, a sterling showing that surprised more than a few folks. The film has similarly continued last week to generate momentum with the guilds, including the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild and the Costume Designers Guild, while also landing a pair of Indie Spirit Awards noms. That, of course, isn’t even to mention its Best Screenplay win and Palme d’Or bid at Cannes that started it all last spring.

The film’s Oscar chances suffered an undeniable setback on Tuesday in landing on the Academy Awards shortlists only for Makeup and Hair, missing out on Original Score (despite its inclusion of 20 contenders) as well as Visual Effects and Sound. But this news should not in itself necessarily be seen as a deal-breaker. The Substance is. after all, one of those films that serves almost like a dare to the audience, challenging moviegoers to endure its incessant gore. It’s a similar vibe to the one created by The Exorcist a half-century ago, albeit on a much smaller scale.

Beyond that, in telling the tale of an aging celebrity (Moore) who, after being fired by a producer (Dennis Quaid) turns to an illicit drug that creates a much younger version of herself (Qualley) to forge a comeback, the irony-encrusted female-empowerment angle can’t be minimized. Or is it disempowerment? To be sure, The Substance is grotesque and it’s disturbing, and some have indeed found it objectifying and gratuitous. Is it a feminist masterpiece? A shallow, misogynistic, exploitative misfire? No one who has seen it lacks a strong opinion, and that in itself should bolster a movie’s awards bona fides. To be sure, however, the fact that it comes from a female filmmaker is no small mitigating factor.

SEE 2025 WGA Awards ballot: Sing Sing, The Substance, Emilia Pérez, Conclave among ineligible scripts

The Substance is like nothing moviegoers have seen before. The shock value component is significant, and perhaps no film this year has proven more divisive. Will the body horror aspect turn off some voters? Undoubtedly. But once they get past that, the film could continue to grow in support as awards season rounds into the homestretch in 2025. Likewise playing into the Substance support is the presence of Moore, a popular veteran who has endured the Hollywood wars and at 62 has perhaps more than a bit in common with her character. The actress’s own comeback narrative is an appealing one, not to mention considerably less brutal. Moore has never won a major Hollywood award. Some might see that as a minor travesty in need of correction.

Finally, there is the opportunity for the film to break out from behind the horror curtain that too often thwarts serious awards consideration. Only a handful of times in the past has that unwritten rule been overcome. Most successfully, The Silence of the Lambs won five Academy Awards in 1992, including Best Picture, Director (Jonathan Demme), Actress (Jodie Foster), Actor (Anthony Hopkins) and Adapted Screenplay (Ted Tally). The year before, Kathy Bates won Best Actress for Misery.

Most recently, there was Get Out, which in 2018 landed a Best Picture Oscar nom as well as bids for Screenplay, Actor (Daniel Kaluuya) and Director (Jordan Peele). Peele won for his script, which featured some disturbing moments but nothing on the order of The Substance. Filmmaker Fargeat is hoping that a little of that same magic rubs off on her twisted tale.

The Oscar nominations will be announced on Jan. 15, 2025 and the ceremony will be held March 2.

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