UNDERLYING TITLE CHALLENGE

17.12.2024 22:17

Le Grove

Sheesh, I was on a rampage yesterday. Never read so much drivel in my entire life. People have absolutely no ability to function after a bad result. People are so angry because we didn’t beat City, Brighton and Bournemouth. Are you mad?!

Let's revisit my Champions League commentary because some folk misunderstood what I was getting at.

Footballers aren't robots.

Football is hard.

Football when you are a Champions League team is even harder.

If you have a small squad that has dealt with lots of injuries, playing three games a week is really tough.

Even teams with really big squads, with lots of experienced players, struggle with extra Champions League games in December.

Out of 36 teams in the Champions League last week, this is what happened in their weekend games:

Wins: 18

Draws: 11

Losses: 7

That's a full 50% of the very best teams in the world dropping points after a midweek game in December. This wasn't because they were all playing Clasicos. This was Barca losing to Leganes, Real dropping 2 points to Vallecano, Bayern losing to Mainz, Juve dropping to Venezia…

This isn't excuse-making; this is just contextualizing why 1) hiring Hansi Flick might not be the solution, and 2) Why it was probably quite hard for Arsenal to break down an Everton side who had 10 days off.

Now let's talk about Thierry Henry using the Liverpool comeback against Fulham as a weapon to smack the desire of Arsenal to win the league. He said the way they broke down Fulham to secure a draw showed they had more attacking intent than Arsenal.

This, for me, is how easy narratives get out of control.

Let's talk some facts here:

Liverpool has two more goals than Arsenal in the Premier League this season.

Liverpool has a +4.83 xG this season, indicating they should have that many MORE goals. Arsenal has a +5.24 xG, meaning we should be expected to have about the same amount of goals in the Premier League as them.

Liverpool making a comeback against Fulham going down to 10 men is great. No doubt. But let's remember they had a 6-day break after Everton, and they picked up Fulham with a 5th choice centre-back.

Let's also flag another uncomfortable truth about November. Since the international break, Arsenal have scored 19 goals and conceded 4 in 7 games. Liverpool has scored 13 and conceded 7.

One set of fans thinks they have the new Jurgen Klopp; one set of fans is talking about getting Arsene Wenger back in the dugout for one last dance.

Football is played in the margins, and Arsenal aren't making the margins work this season. That means Liverpool are being hailed as an attacking dream machine, and Arsenal are being condemned as a disaster, but objectively, we are scoring at about the same clip, and statistically, we are matching each other on xG.

Do Arsenal need to find some solutions? Yes. Where I concur with Thierry Henry is his view that not enough of our big names are scoring. Martinelli and Trossard have dried up. Odegaard doesn't offer enough final product. Kai has looked flat. These are all real issues that need to change if we want to make a run at the title.

But a title run we can make. We have the best defence in the league. If we can return our attacking play to where it was last season, we'll start to make up the gap. Folk saying we don't have what it takes have totally forgotten the reason we are where we are: shocking red cards. Three of them. PGMOL punishment moves. Those reds won't happen for anyone else this season, and they've cost us 7 points. Add 7 points to where we are right now and we're sitting exactly where you'd like us to be in December.

Coaching can't control those red cards.

Good coaching will turn the team around, just like it did last season. We're the most capable of a mega run this season. I think we are the best team in the league. There's still a lot of drama to come. We just need to be the right side of that drama.

Ok, short one today, see you in the comments. x