Who’s up and who’s down in Oscar race after Critics Choice and Golden Globe noms?
It’s been a whirlwind week on the awards circuit with the announcements of the Golden Globe nominations and Critics Choice nominations, as well as various regional and industry group prizes. How do all these impact the Oscar race? Here’s our latest breakdown of who’s up, who’s down, and who’s holding steady in this marathon awards season.
UP
“A Complete Unknown” — Like a rolling stone, Timothée Chalamet-led Bob Dylan biopic has been gaining momentum with Best Picture noms from both the Globes and Critics Choice Awards to go along with previous accolades from the National Board of Review and American Film Institute. And Chalamet has firmly established himself not only in the Best Actor conversation but as a legitimate threat to win the Oscar.
“Conclave” — The papal potboiler followed up an excellent showing at the Golden Globes (six noms) with an even better tally at Critics Choice, where it tied “Wicked” as the most-nominated film with 11. Aside from its starry cast of contenders (including Ralph Fiennes, Isabella Rossellini, and John Litghow), the film has had wide appeal down ballot, with nods for Best Director (Edward Berger), Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, and Best Editing.
“Emilia Pérez” — The offbeat musical has been embraced wholeheartedly by awards groups. It received 10 nominations at the Golden Globes, more than any other musical or comedy — ever! And then it racked up 10 more nods from the Critics Choice Awards.
“The Substance” — Horror has always struggled to be viewed as prestige. But this film has broken through with an impressive five Golden Globe nominations (including writing and directing bids, plus acting noms for Demi Moore and Margaret Qualley) followed by seven Critics Choice noms (also including writing, directing, Moore, and Qualley).
“Wicked” — Talk about defying gravity. While the big-screen Broadway adaptation slightly under-performed at the Golden Globes with four noms (including Best Film Comedy/Musical, and acting bids for Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande), it took off at Critics Choice with a leading 11 bids (tied with the aforementioned “Conclave”), including nods for writing and directing. That recognition places it among the top tier of awards contenders.
DOWN
“Blitz” — A World War II film from the director of “12 Years a Slave” and starring Saoirse Ronan seemed like awards catnip. But it hasn’t played out that way. “Blitz” was shut out at the Golden Globes, and received a lone Critics Choice nomination for young actor Elliott Heffernan. The ambitious film didn’t even get craft nominations from Critics Choice voters. Not a good sign.
“Gladiator II” — The awards industrial complex is not entertained. While its predecessor stormed through Oscar season, “Gladiator II” failed to register Best Picture noms from the Golden Globes or Critics Choice Awards. Right now its best bet above the line is Best Supporting Actor for Denzel Washington, who was nominated by Critics Choice and the Globes. That and a few craft nominations might be the ceiling for this toga party.
“Sing Sing” — The film was riding high last week when it won Gotham Awards for both lead actor Colman Domingo and supporting actor Clarence Maclin. But then came the Globes where the movie was left off the list for Best Film Drama, receiving a single nomination for Domingo’s performance. It rebounded at Critics Choice, where it did make the cut for Best Picture, but it’s looking less like the frontrunner from earlier in the season.
HOLDING STEADY
“Anora” — It did what it needed to do at the Golden Globes with noms for Best Film Comedy/Musical as well as bids for writing and directing and for the performances by Mikey Madison and Yura Borisov. Then the indie scored seven noms at the Critics Choice Awards. While “Anora” didn’t top the nominations for either group, it remains the most honored film on our awards scorecard. So is it still the Best Picture frontrunner? If you believed so before, there’s no reason to doubt it now.
“The Brutalist” — It’s the second-most-nominated film at the Golden Globes with seven and the fifth-most-nominated film at the Critics Choice Awards with nine. There have been some worrying signs along the way: it was snubbed by the American Cinema Editors, and Felicity Jones was left off the Critics Choice list for Best Supporting Actress. But it still must be considered one of the leading Oscar contenders for Best Picture.
“Dune: Part Two” — There have been questions about the viability of Denis Villeneuve‘s epic. Would awards voters forget this film that was released early in the year? Would they still even be interested after recognizing “Dune: Part One” a few years ago? And would they prefer to hold off on the hardware until the filmmaker’s planned final installment arrives in a few years? Now we have answers. The follow-up received Best Picture nominations from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. It also tallied a second Globe nod for its score (which was already disqualified by the Motion Picture Academy), and then more than made up for that shortfall with 10 total noms at Critics Choice.
“Nickel Boys” — Yes, it only picked up only one nomination at the Golden Globes, but it was the big one: Best Film Drama. “Nickel Boys” then nabbed five noms at the Critics Choice Awards, including Best Picture, Best Director (RaMell Ross), and Best Adapted Screenplay. It may be flying a bit under the radar, but it’s steadily building a case for itself as a Best Picture Oscar contender.
“A Real Pain” — A solid showing at the Golden Globes (four nominations including Best Film Comedy/Musical) was followed by a less-than-stellar Critics Choice morning (just three nominations, snubbed for Best Picture). The mixed-bag results reinforce this film’s position on the bubble for a top nomination from the Academy.
“September 5” — Another film on the bubble is this docudrama about the murder of Israeli athletes at the 1972 Summer Olympic Games. Like “Nickel Boys” it received a lone Best Film Drama nomination at the Golden Globes. At Critics Choice, it only received a pair of bids for Best Original Screenplay and Best Editing — enough to remain in the Oscar conversation for now.
The Golden Globe Awards take place Jan. 5, 2025, broadcasting on CBS and Paramount+. The Critics Choice Awards will be handed out on Jan. 12, 2025, airing on E! And Oscar season will wrap up with the Academy Awards on March 2, 2025, with the ceremony simulcast on ABC and Hulu.