MMO Trade Profile: Luis Castillo, RHP

Luis Castillo, RHP

Position: SP B/T: R/R

Age: 32 (12/12/1992)

2024 Traditional Stats: 30 starts, 175.1 IP, 3.64 ERA, 1.169 WHIP, 11-12, 175 K, 47 BB

2024 Advanced Stats: 101 ERA+, 24.3% K%, 6.5% BB%, 3.94 xERA, 3.91 FIP, 3.82 xFIP, 2.3 fWAR, 1.8 bWAR

Rundown

No, not that Luis Castillo. It does seem somewhat appropriate though since the other Luis no longer has the worst dropped ball in Yankee Stadium history.

The pitching Castillo has seemingly been a Mets target for years now. From 2020-2022, he seemed like the perfect addition to a Mets team that desperately needed pitching help. After being dealt to Seattle, the rumors and fascinations over Castillo seemed to end for a period of time. However, with rumblings that Seattle is willing to shop Castillo, it might be time to examine his fit with the Mets again.

After bouncing around between the Giants and Marlins systems, Castillo finally broke onto the scene in Cincinnati. By 2019, Castillo broke out with a 3.40 ERA (137 ERA+) over 190.2 innings and posted a 5.2 bWAR. Castillo then backed that up with a strong pandemic-shortened campaign and another solid 2021 campaign. By 2022, he had become one of the most widely rumored trade candidates due to his production, the Reds’ lack of success, and the fact he was facing free agency. After posting a 2.86 ERA and 152 ERA+ in the first half, the Reds dealt him to Seattle for a group of prospects. Seattle promptly extended the right-hander to ensure he would not touch free agency.

The right-hander is potentially back on the market but there could be a reason for that. Castillo posted a 3.34 ERA, 118 ERA+, and 3.4 bWAR in 2023 and earned some Cy Young votes. However, he declined to a 3.64 ERA, 101 ERA+, and 1.8 bWAR in 2024. More alarmingly, Castillo’s velocity also declined and as a result, his contact rate against him went up while his swinging strike rate went down. Is there a reason for any of those numbers though? Here are some things that jumped out when looking into his numbers a bit more:

• Castillo was heavily featuring his changeup with the Reds. He used it over 30% of the time between 2019-2021. In 2024, he was throwing that at pitch 14.3% of the time.
• He was also featuring his four-seamer less than 30% of the time in those aforementioned three seasons but now he’s using it 45% of the time.
• He also has been trying to feature his slider more but he has also lost movement on said slider. In 2023, he had 1.4 inches of vertical drop but in 2024, he had -1 inches of vertical movement.
• Castillo’s arm angle dropped from 18 degrees in 2023 to 15 degrees in 2024.

The Mariners are very good at developing pitchers as evidenced by Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert. I do not want to pretend the problem for Castillo was as simple as “Hey fix your arm angle and go back to your pitch mixes from 2021.” With that being said, it might be that simple. I think it is certainly worth a shot because whatever Castillo tried doing in 2024 did not work for him.

Package

Despite the concerns I laid out above, I think Castillo would fetch a good return for Seattle. Castillo’s contract has aged like a fine wine despite his potential decline. He is slated to make $24.15 million from 2025-2027. Given the market for pitchers right now, that still seems like a coup. For example, Frankie Montas might have some solid underlying trends but the Mets would be very lucky if he produced like Castillo did in 2024, despite the latter’s struggles.

My guess, is any package likely starts with Brett Baty to Seattle. Perhaps another piece like Luisangel Acuña would make sense for Seattle along with a pitching piece.

Mets Receive:

• Luis Castillo

Mariners Receive:

• IF Brett Baty
• IF Luisangel Acuña
• RHP Jack Wenninger

Recommendation

I think it depends on how fixable the Mets think Castillo is. If they think he can return to 2019-2023 levels of being a 4-win starter, I think it is a good deal and the Mets should do it.

As mentioned above though, the return will not be minimal but I would still prefer Castillo to say Walker Buehler or Nick Pivetta though.

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