Overrated players
Who loves them?
The internet remains an endless source of strange stuff: a firehose of information, disinformation, entertainment and opinions. I read through a lot of the sports stuff that pops up on my feed, for better or worse. Most of it is just someone’s opinion. You see something like the ten best players in NBA history and if Wilt Chamberlain isn’t on the list, you know the writer must have been born after the year 2000. Or this dandy which I saw recently - top ten guitarists of all time. Number five was Taylor Swift. I used to be heavily involved in music in my younger days and I can guarantee you with my life that Taylor Swift is not the fifth-best guitar player of all time. In fact, I doubt that she’s even in the top 50 and probably not in the top 100. Who writes this stuff?
One social media account that I do like and pay attention to goes by the moniker Fanstorian. He puts out lists of pro football greats under headings such as “the Mt. Rushmore of Cornerbacks” or “Greatest Chiefs of all time”. He picks the four greatest and two honorable mentions and his picks are well thought out and valid. He’s not blinded by recency bias, so you’ll see some older greats show up on the lists, as well as players from the modern era.
I recently saw a piece entitled “baseball’s five most overrated players”. I can’t say I agree with all the picks, or any of them for that matter, which were: Cy Young, Lou Brock, Joe Mauer, Reggie Jackson, and Derek Jeter, in that order. Jeter shows up on just about every overrated list. His name is almost synonymous with being overrated. Famed writer Joe Posnanski even coined a term for it, Jeterate.
I personally don’t think Jeter was overrated. I saw him play in person a few times and on television dozens of times, mostly in the postseason. To me he was a competent shortstop, an invaluable team leader and a clutch performer. He seemed destined for greatness at an early age. Houston Astros scout Hal Newhouser, a damn good pitcher in his own right, quit his scouting job with the Houston Astros when they didn’t follow his recommendation and take Jeter with their pick. Instead, the trash can bangers took Phil Nevin. Nevin, who was a massive college star, had an okay career: 1,131 hits over 12 seasons with 7 teams, good for 16 WAR. Jeter on the other hand, well, it’s no comparison: 20 seasons with the Yankees which amounted to 3,465 hits, 71 WAR and five World Series championships and his induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame. So no, I don’t think Jeter was overrated. You don’t collect 3,465 hits when you’re overrated. Newhouser was right and I applaud his principles.
But getting back to the main question, how do you measure being overrated? Is it based on reputation compared to performance? Or in today’s game, is a player’s performance based on how much he is being paid? How about performance compared to a sportscaster's gushing praise? There’s a lot of ways to look at this.
The only player on the list that I think might be overrated is Mauer, a player I’d seen a lot of. He was a great hitter as witnessed by his career slash of .306/.388/.439 but looking at the numbers it seems kind of hollow. Over his 15-year career, he didn’t hit with much power. He only averaged 12 home runs a season, which is paltry for a man his size (6’5, 225 pounds). He never drove in more than 100 runs, with his best being 96 in his age 26 season and he never scored more than 100 runs in a season. He always seemed to be injured, so he never played a full slate of games, averaging only 130 games during his full-time years. He was never a threat on the bases.
What exactly did he do? He drew a few walks, hit some doubles and a lot of singles. 1,522 singles to be exact. 72% of his base hits were singles. He did win three batting titles hitting those singles and three Gold Glove awards and his career on-base percentage of .388 is impressive, yet somehow the career of Joe Mauer still leaves me a little empty. Mauer was mostly a punch-and-judy hitter playing in a power position (catcher and first base). Is that Hall of Fame material? The voters said yes, so it is. I do think it makes Sal Perez’s future Hall of Fame candidacy look better.
I had similar feelings about Juan Soto in past years. He had a reputation as the next Ted Williams, but whenever I saw him play, I saw a guy who seemed happier to draw a walk than to take his chances swinging. Watching Soto this past postseason softened my stance. The guy can hit when he wants to.
For the sake of brevity, I’m going to eliminate players who are not in the Hall of Fame. Can you be overrated if you’re not in the Hall? Probably, but that’s an argument for another day.
The most overrated player in the Hall is Tommy McCarthy. McCarthy was an Irish immigrant who played for five different teams between 1884 and 1896. McCarthy played in the Union Association, the American Association and the National League and while he did have a few impressive seasons, his overall numbers are slim. His career batting average over 13 seasons was .292 with just 1,493 hits and an OPS+ of 102. He is credited with introducing signals to his teammates and developing the hit and run, but his WAR of 14.6 is by far the lowest of any member of the Hall. It’s difficult to measure players from earlier eras but McCarthy’s numbers just don’t move the needle.
The second most overrated Hall member is George “High Pockets” Kelly. High Pockets is a Hall of Fame nickname, given to Kelly because he stood 6’4. Kelly played for five different teams between 1915 and 1932 and he did lead the league in RBI twice and home runs once. His six-year peak between 1920 and 1925 was outstanding with a slash of .307/.353/.479 and an OPS+ of 120 but at the end of the day, Kelly looks like a player who belongs in the Hall of Very Good as shown by his accumulated WAR of 25.9. Kelly was on the BBWAA ballot for seven years and in the best year only drew 2% of the vote. He was elected to the Hall by the Veterans Committee in 1973. More on that later.
Number three belongs to Lloyd Waner. Little Poison, younger brother of Hall member Paul Waner, was a fine centerfielder for five different teams over a 17-year career. Waner accumulated some significant numbers over his long career: 2,459 hits and 1,201 runs but only had a career OPS+ of 99. A comparison to modern players would be someone like Brett Butler or Juan Pierre, very good players who had some outstanding years, but not Hall of Famers. Waner was elected to the Hall by the Veterans Committee in 1967.
The number four slot belongs to Rick Ferrell. Ferrell was a catcher who played for three teams between the years 1929 and 1947. His 18-year career was impressive in its duration and during that time he accumulated some numbers: 1,692 hits and seven All-Star berths and a career on-base percentage of .378. He only struck out 277 times in 6,028 at-bats but only stroked 28 career home runs and was never much of a run producer, only recording 734 career RBI. Farrell was a fine player in his generation, and he set an American League record for catching 1,806 games, which stood for over 40 years until Carlton Fisk surpassed it. At the end of the day, Farrell solidly belongs in the Hall of Very Good.
In a tight race, Chick Hafey claims the number five spot, with an asterisk. Hafey was an outfielder who had a 13-year career playing for St. Louis and Cincinnati between 1924 and 1937. Hafey did lead the league in batting average once and slugging percentage another season. He picked up some down-ballot MVP votes in three seasons and finished 5th in the 1931 vote. He only made one All-Star team and only recorded 1,466 hits over his career. He hit with some power as witnessed by his 164 career home runs. He drove in more than 100 runs in three seasons and his career slash of .316/.372/.526 is solid. Unfortunately, Hafey’s career was short-circuited by sinus and vision problems which left his numbers lacking. He’s absolutely in the Hall of Very Good. A modern comparison to Hafey would be someone like Carlos Lee or Matt Holiday, two very solid ballplayers.
There were several others who fell just below the cutoff line, guys like Rube Marquard, Jesse Haines, and Jim Bottomley. I learned something in doing this research. Many of these players were inducted into the Hall of Fame Veterans Committee, which at the time was spearheaded by Frankie Frisch. Frisch endured a lot of criticism for ramrodding home several of his former teammates, who had been rejected by the Baseball Writers Association. Those teammates included High Pockets Kelly, Freddie Lindstrom, Rube Marquard, Ray Schalk, Chick Hafey, Ross Youngs, Jim Bottomley and Jesse Haines, all players who made my final working list of overrated players. The criticism, which appears valid, eventually led to the reorganization of the Veterans Committee.