A Crossroads Trade
The baseball fan in me (and if I were not a huge Guardians fan: I would not be writing this) still instinctively dislikes this trade. The Guardians finally announced the trade: Andres Gimenez and Nick Sandlin for RHP Luis Ortiz, OF Nick Mitchell, and left handed pitchers Josh Hartle and Michael Kennedy. It seems like yesterday we just signed Andres Gimenez to a 7 year extension after a glorious season where he made the All-Star Game, and Clevleand stunned baseball by winning the AL Central (which itself was right after us recovering from the misery of trading Francisco Lindor for Andres Gimenez). Trading your stars stinks, and while Andres is not your stereotypical star: I think he’s a star.
I wrote last week what it would take for some Cleveland players to make the Hall of Fame, and I mentioned Andres as part of the trio with Emmanuel Clase & Jose Ramirez. My words then were:
Andres is a good baserunner, and a superb defender: that combo alongside a solid bat can make for a Hall of Fame case in 6-7 years.
I stand by that analysis. Andres is not just a good defensive player, he’s the best defensive player in baseball. Since 2022 he ranks 2nd in baseball in Outs Above Average, and leads baseball in Defensive Runs Saved, these are the two most respected fielding metrics available. While single season numbers can be noisy: multi-year numbers provide clarity, and the reality is Andres is a defensive superstar. He’s also a superb base runner who’s stolen 30 bases the past two years. While his bat slumped last year, over the last three seasons his bat has been about league average at .265/.326/.398 (OPS+ 104). All those facets combined make Andres a player any team would want on their club.
I also want to be clear: I am not predicting Andres goes to the Hall of Fame, he’s a long way away from that, but his combination of skills (and his youth) make it a possibility. If Andres can return to his 2023 offensive levels, and keeps playing this elite defense: I think he would have an excellent shot. Even if he doesn’t quite reach those offensive levels, he’s still a very good player and he’s a better player than all the other middle infield options on the club. He’s a better defender than Angel Martinez, Tyler Freeman and Brayan Rocchio, and arguably a better hitter than all three too. Andres is not a schmuck just because he’s not a great hitter.
Besides that: Andres is becoming a fan favorite, and as I wrote yesterday, has been a huge part of this club the past three seasons. His defense was crucial to winning both our playoff series, and he provided some huge hits in the regular season too. It just stinks to lose a player like Andres, and they did not have to trade him! Andres is due a lot of money over 5 years, but $90M for a 4-5 win player is fair market value. The team did not have to make this move: this is not the C.C. Sabathia trade where they either traded him or walked away with nothing, or the Cliff Lee trade where the team was moribund and needed a reset, it’s not even the Francisco Lindor trade where Andres is eagerly trying to leave: he signed the extension to stay in Cleveland! You can’t tell me the dude who does this after tying a game against Minnesota doesn’t love this team.
I would further add: there is no way Andres is traded if he didn’t sign that extension which feels incredibly frustrating. This team has stocked itself with middle infielders for years and the one player they finally develop into a star they trade before he can make a bunch of money. As a fan, who questions the Dolans’ commitment to spend on this franchise: it’s infuriating to see them move a player because he’s getting expensive. If our owner wont spend money now, after we make the ALCS, draw 2 million fans for the first time in years, and have an outpouring of support: when will we?
Frustrating But Understandable
That all being said: trading Andres Gimenez for rotation help at least makes sense on paper. In a world where Alex Cobb, who is entering his age 38 season and made 3 regular season starts this year, makes $15M plus incentives: young, cheap, pitching has never been more valuable. The Guardians landed Luis Ortiz from the Pirates and he was pretty good last year pitching to the tune of a 3.32 ERA (123 OPS+) in 135 innings, including 22 relief appearances. He became incredibly efficient when he became a starter, and dominated down the stretch. Furthermore, Ortiz is under team control for 5 more seasons and will make the Major League Minimum for two. Even if Ortiz regresses (and I think he will): that’s a valuable player. Ortiz would sign for a lot more on the free agent market than Cobb, and this team will not pay that kind of money for a pitcher.
Our starting rotation was in shambles last year, we only had three starters make even 10 starts with a below average ERA: Ben Lively and Tanner Bibee. Every other pitcher either pitched far less, or was bad. In 2023 the Guardians could call up Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams to save the rotation after Triston McKenzie and Shane Bieber landed on the Injured List: we have no crop of starters coming to save us in 2025. This makes Luis Ortiz a valuable player, the kind of player we needed to add to our roster.
Importantly: while I think it’s terrible that ownership won't spend like a Major League club, but that’s not on the Front Office. Once you assume your payroll cap sits at around $100M, then there’s only so much they can do to fill the gaps. Andres Gimenez was scheduled to make $10.5M next year, and the Guardians in theory have ready replacements already on the roster. So moving Andres (theoretically) hurts, but not that much, but adding Luis Ortiz helps ensure no more starts from Spencer Howard and Carlos Carrasco. That has a ton of value.
Furthermore, Luis Ortiz makes a lot more sense than Spencer Horwitz. He fills an immediate need where we really lacked anything which could improve our roster in the short run. He’s also exactly the kind of player Cleveland has found a way to maximize his value in the future. I was not sure Cleveland would get much out of Spencer: I think they could potentially turn Luis Ortiz into another Carlos Carrasco.
About the Money
One of the questions I asked in the beginning of the year was how much money the Guardians have to spend, and how can they free up payroll flexibility? I, like most, assumed they would trade Josh Naylor to free up his projected salary. I think Andres is a better player than Josh Naylor, but he’s also far more expensive: Andres was projected to make over $90M over the next five years, including $23M a year in the last 3 seasons of that deal. To most clubs that’s a fair price to pay for a Platinum Glove winning second baseman, with speed, who can potentially hit if he just starts to improve, and is only 26. But we’re not most clubs.
Again, if you accept that the Dolans will never spend more: then Andres’ contract starts looking less good. $90M, that’s a lot of money. While I can easily paint the rosy picture for Andres: it’s not hard to paint the sour picture either. Andres’ has declined offensively each year since 2022; his defense props up the entirety of his value. If Andres does not hit a little better, and his defense slips: that contract is an albatross. In other words: this contract is risky for a team like Cleveland, which chooses to constrain itself financially.
To repeat myself: $90M is a lot of money, money the front office can use to lock up Steven Kwan or Tanner Bibee: players who may make more sense in the long run. With our crop of middle infield prospects, which includes first overall draft pick Travis Bazzanna who should arrive in Cleveland sometime this or next season, Andres (in theory) should be replaceable. Sure you could move Andres to short, but why do that when you have so many other options? The Guardians are taking a risk that they can at least partially replace Andres while paying less.
Which to me brings me to my final point: Cleveland got decent value for Andres. I am not overwhelmed by this trade, and you can read other views on this if you’d like. Ben Clemens of Fangraphs thinks the trade is clever, but dislikes Cleveland’s strategy. Craig Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus thinks getting out from under this contract is a huge win in and of itself. Justin Lada of the Locked on Guardians Podcast thinks the deal is already underwater, and that nobody pays for defense. I don’t agree with the Andres detractors: Andres isn’t just a good defender: he’s (right now) a Hall of Fame caliber one. But honestly: this team is no better in 2025 right now than it was before the trade. I can only stomach this trade if the Guardians do more, go out and spend your savings on more players who can help you win right now.
$95M is enough to get Teoscar Hernandez. It’s enough to pay a big portion of Anthony Santander’s next contract. It can sign Steven Kwan (or Tanner Bibee) to an extension and still add a desperately needed bat like Luis Robert from the White Sox. There are options for this team: make a big trade, sign a big free agent, and extend someone else for this franchise to love. You just traded one of your franchise’s most beloved players, and then spread salt on the wound by canceling Guards Fest: go prove to your fans that you do, indeed, still care about their needs. You made the ALCS, we haven’t won a World Series in 75 years. Stop acting scared and be bold.
This Andres Gimenez trade cannot be the capstone of the offseason, it has to be the bridge on which they cross to enhance this ballclub for 2025 and beyond. Otherwise it just proves that the Dolans are cheap, and are trying to do the bare minimum to stay on the fringes of contention while they wait for our new owner to take over some time in the future. We await our answer.