Sabathia for the Hall of Fame

I cannot remain impartial when analyzing C.C. Sabathia, who was among my favorite Indians growing up, my first favorite pitcher, and a player I respected and admired even when he left for Milwaukee and then for New York. I admire his class and how he’s overcome hardship in his life. Unlike most players who left Cleveland Sabathia went out of his way to thank and show appreciation for the fans who cheered him on for nearly a decade.

Was C.C. Sabathia Great?
 
Sabathia embarked upon a traditional track for greatness in his career. He won a Cy Young Award in 2007, and finished top 5 four other times. Sabathia’s record on run prevention is solid, but not spectacular. Sabathia only once posted an ERA under 3 (his truncated 2008 season), which was also the only time he finished in the top 5 in ERA. He did strike batters out, but not at an elite level: he never finished higher than 4th in strikeouts per 9 innings (his rookie season). Instead Sabathia did what fewer and fewer pitchers did: he threw a lot of pitches, compiled a ton of innings, and completed a lot of games. 
 
At his best: Sabathia was a beast. In 2007 he finished 2nd in the American League in bWAR, won the Cy Young Award, led the league in innings and SO/BB (2007 was Sabathia’s best season for control), while leading the Indians to their first AL Central crown since 2001. In 2008 he posted his best season between Cleveland and Milwaukee. When Sabathia came to Milwaukee they were embroiled in a race for the playoffs, and C.C. put Milwaukee on his back to get them to October for the first time in decades. In 130 innings, over 17 starts, Sabathia posted a 1.72 ERA, threw 7 complete games (which led the National League), 3 shutouts (which also led the National League…and included a 1 hitter against Pittsburgh, where the lone hit was an infield single Sabathia himself could not field), and made his final 3 starts on short rest to get them there, capping the season off with a shutout. After Sabathia signed with the Yankees he reeled off three strong seasons, finishing in the top 4 in Cy Young voting each time, leading the league in wins twice, and winning the World Series in 2009.
 
However, we should give the argument against C.C. some justice, and it starts when you compare Sabathia’s ‘peak’ seasons to his contemporaries. If you look at his 5 year peak from 2007-2011 Sabathia was among the best in baseball:
 


 
Of the above Roy Halladay is in the Hall of Fame, and Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw will both enter the Hall of Fame when eligible. So Sabathia is in good company.
 
However, if we adjust our definition of peak Sabathia looks a little weaker. Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system’s definition of peak includes a pitcher’s top 7 seasons, not their best consecutive seasons, and here Sabathia ranks 60th all time. If we again compare Sabathia to his contemporaries things look a little different (Hall of Famers in italics):




From this perspective Sabathia looks underwhelming. Personally I find the JAWS method more compelling than consecutive seasons. Why should a player be penalized for having off years when they come back from them? It would be nice to think that pitchers all have neat peaks like Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux and Sandy Koufax, but careers are messy things and sometimes pitchers bounce around, like John Smoltz who switched from being an ace starter to an ace reliever and back, or Roy Halladay who had a rough stretch in between Cy Young seasons. Sabathia’s 5 consecutive good seasons helps frame his peak better than most, but is not the be all, end all.

Finally, Sabathia was not quite as good at his absolute best (his best season) than almost everyone on the above list, and many others. Here’s each pitcher’s best season:
 


 
Again, Sabathia falls a little short of his contemporaries.
 
The way I read this is, to use traditional Hall of Fame parlance, is that Sabathia was a compiler. Sabathia pitched more innings than any other pitcher I have compared him to thus far and it’s not close. The closest pitcher to Sabathia is Justin Verlander, and Verlander is still 160 innings behind Sabathia despite pitching into his 40s (we shall see if Verlander eventually eclipses him). Unlike most of his peers Sabathia was not quite as good as you would expect for a Hall of Fame pitcher (if only by a whisker).
 
Granted, I do not fully agree with the opposing view of Sabathia’s peak. No, he did not quite reach the heights of Verlander, Halladay, Kershaw or some other Hall of Fame caliber players: but he was close.

Did C.C. Sabathia have Staying Power?

Beyond any other skill: Sabathia pitched forever. I already described how Sabathia dragged the Milwaukee Brewers to the playoffs in 2008, but Sabathia was a workhorse who frequently pitched 200 innings (8 times, and another 3 at 190). He pitched until he turned 39, and managed to remain effective after his fastball lost significant velocity. Sabathia’s career peak may not be impressive, but his career length is quite impressive. He has pitched more innings than any pitcher so far this century. If you look at ‘modern’ pitchers (i.e. those whose careers started after 1900) he ranks 65th all time in innings pitched. I suspect that, if Justin Verlander does not catch him, he will remain 65th for a long time.

For his career Sabathia ranks 47th all time in wins with 251 and 18th all time in strikeouts with 3,000. He is one of only 15 pitchers to reach both marks. The win total is particularly impressive in modern context: he is second this century in wins behind Justin Verlander (and again: nobody is likely to catch him). This combo, I think (along with his Cy Young Award), is the simplest case for Sabathia to enter the Hall of Fame.

Is C.C. Sabathia an Inalienable Part of Baseball History?

Sabathia was part of a World Series winning club in 2009, and was a crucial part for the Yankees to get there as he was the ALCS MVP. While the Yankees never made it back to the World Series again during his tenure, he pitched some other gutsy postseason games including one against the Indians in 2017 in the ALDS. Sabathia was also an important part of both the 2001 and 2007 Indians, both of whom won the AL Central and was vital to the 2008 Milwaukee Brewers making the postseason for the first time in over two decades. Sabathia also stands out as one of New York’s better pitchers, and threw out the first pitch in New Yankee Stadium’s history.

I think Sabathia has played an important cultural role both by battling alcoholism as he got older, a battle he thankfully won, and inspiring other African-American star pitchers. He was a strong supporter of Triston McKenzie (of Cleveland) when he started out pitching in the 2020s. Overall, Sabathia’s place in baseball history for his time is quite strong. The respect he garners from around the game is high. He does not reach the heights of other stars from his era, but he stands out more than Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez and Roy Oswalt (to name a few), and I would argue more than Zack Greinke as well.

Conclusion

As I said at the beginning: I cannot remain unbiased with C.C. Sabathia. I love Sabathia, he was so fun to watch when he was younger with his blazing fastball, feral screams, and bulldog mentality. It pains me to root for a Yankee: but Sabathia played a big role for them in their first championship since 2000 (and their most recent one). I will admit, if I did not watch Sabathia as much as I did as a fan: I may try to argue against his induction primarily for how good he was at his best. I am not convinced that Sabathia’s peak value ranks that high, and I think you could make the case that several pitchers were better than him at their best.

But I also think this argument is petty. Do I think it’s possible Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez were a touch better than Sabathia at their best? Sure. Do I think Johan Santana, in particular, was definitely better than C.C. at their best? Yes. But Sabathia also pitched way longer than all of them, was a huge credit to the game, and struck out 3,000 batters (something very few pitchers achieved in baseball history). There comes a point, in my view, that minor deviations just don’t matter. For me: Sabathia is a Hall of Famer, through and through, and while I think he’s closer to the line than I’d like to admit: a Hall of Famer is a Hall of Famer, and I am rooting for him to get in on the first ballot this January.