Bay Area planners to poll residents on transportation tax

After struggling to build consensus around a regional transportation tax measure, Bay Area policymakers are leaning on polling again for help.

The key questions center around which tax framework — designed to save pandemic-strained bus and rail agencies from financial collapse — would garner the most voter support. One option is a 10-year half-cent sales tax to fund transit only, and the other is a sales tax plus a parcel tax lasting 30 years to support transit and infrastructure improvements.

Another unknown is which counties would be included. As discussed so far, Marin and its North Bay neighbors would either be left out of the mix or provided the opportunity to opt in.

“We are supportive of a measure to go forward,” Marin County Supervisor Stephanie Moulton-Peters, a member of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, said at its special meeting on Monday. “I have always supported a 10-year measure, just trying to get closer to the problem at hand, but I’m sympathetic to other organizations that may need capital projects to get the votes they need to pass.”

The primary thrust of the measure is to shore up Bay Area Rapid Transit, the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency and Caltrain, which face a financial cliff stemming from telecommuting during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In Marin County, a few sales tax measures already support transit and infrastructure. About 55% of a half-cent sales tax providing about $27 million in annual revenue is used for Marin Transit bus operations, with the rest supporting other transportation efforts. The tax expires in 2049.

Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit is largely reliant on its voter-approved quarter-cent sales tax, which brings in about $51 million annually for operations across the two counties. The agency failed in 2020 to gain voter support for a 30-year extension, which is critical for the future of the rail line. The tax expires in 2029, and SMART officials have said it needs a renewal approved by 2028 at the latest.

“I just want to say that Marin would benefit,” Moulton-Peters said. “SMART is in the primary position trying to figure out how to renew their sales tax, which is crucial to their operation. Their success is important.”

Moulton-Peters said there could be an organized opposition to a single campaign for a SMART tax renewal, like the one that helped defeat the agency’s attempt in 2020.

“There may be a benefit to being part of a larger measure,” Moulton-Peters said.

Commissioner David Rabbitt, a Sonoma County supervisor who serves on the SMART board, said, “Polling dictates everything. I trust our pollster and staff, but we have a lot of questions.”

Rabbitt said the polling questions should focus on some of what is already known in order to get buy-in from the respondents.

“I know in my county there are certain things people will be looking for, capital projects for instance,” he said, noting that sales taxes are preferred over parcel or payroll taxes.

“The quicker we could dismiss and get to those things the people can support, the better we can put everything together,” Rabbitt said.

The Metropolitan Transportation Commission authorized the polling to begin in January. It hopes to have the results presented the following month in a dash to agree on a tax pitch to send to the Legislature, which needs to pass an enabling bill to get the measure on the November 2026 ballot.

“If there is going to be a revenue measure in 2026, which I think there needs to be, then it needs to be enacted next year,” said Andrew Fremier, executive director of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission. “So there is a lot of work ahead of us.”

The 10-year sales tax option would include Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco and San Mateo counties, with a provision for Santa Clara County to participate.

The half-cent sales tax would be expected to generate about $560 million a year, with 90% of the revenue used to support transit operations and 10% reserved for rider incentives such as discounts for transfers.

The second option is a hybrid approach for a 30-year half-cent sales tax plus a parcel tax of 9 cents per square foot of any building on a property.

This option would apply to the same four counties, but allow an opt-in option for Marin, Napa, Solano, Sonoma and Santa Clara counties.

The taxes are expected to generate $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion each year, depending on which counties participate. Under this framework, 90% of the sales tax revenues would support transit operations, and 10% would be invested in rider experience, similar to the first option.

The parcel tax revenue would be split, with 60% used for transit operations and the remaining 40% reserved as “county flex” funds available for each participating county to address its respective transit needs.

The polling would also ask respondents whether they would support a variable tax rate. This third option would feature a higher tax rate for San Francisco, which has more operating needs than the other counties.

A committee of elected officials that convened over the summer through the fall argued over the merits of each presented scenario, failing to reach an agreement on something they could all endorse.

Santa Clara County officials have signaled that they are likely to opt out because they are interested in seeking their own tax renewal measure to maintain autonomy and flexibility. San Mateo County officials also argue that they should be given an opt-out option for similar reasons.

Moulton-Peters said she wants to keep the conversations going to understand the challenges of the two counties.

“I think we have to find a way to link arms and to do this together,” Moulton-Peters said. “Because I think that’s how we’re going to be successful and I’m not sure how successful we’re all going to be if we each go it alone.”