Analysis: Guardians Trade Gimenez/Horwitz. Get Luis Ortiz, Josh Hartle and Michael Kennedy from Pirates
Whoo. I need to sit down for a second
In a clear bet on their pitching development group, the Guardians have, for all intents and purposes, exchanged Andres Gimenez (and Nick Sandlin) for major league right-handed starter Luis L. Ortiz, and low-A left-hander Josh Hartle, high-A left-hander Michael Kennedy, and low-A outfielder Nick Mitchell. Spencer Horwitz was the vessel through which the Pirates’ aspect of this deal was done.
While Kennedy, especially, and Hartle are prospects of interest, the central piece of this deal is Luis L. Ortiz. As a 25 year old, Ortiz threw 135 innings for the Pirates with a 3.32 ERA and 4.25 FIP, and a 7.1/2.79 K/BB/9. For his career, Ortiz gets a lot of groundballs at 43.2%, which made a bit more sense when the Guardians had the best second baseman in baseball than it does at this current moment, but, still, groundballs are better than flyballs as a general rule. Most exciting, Ortiz has some really interesting stuff with a fastball that sits at 96 mph, a sinker that sits at 95, and a slider that measures very well in Stuff+ at 119. He also has 79th percentile extension and a general knack for avoiding hard contact. Basically, Ortiz looks like a pitcher who should be getting better results than he’s getting. So, this trade is a bet that the Guardians’ pitching development group can unlock those results for the 25 year old who is under team control through 2028.
Kennedy has some really interesting numbers as a 19 year old starter who spent time in low-A and high-A last year with a 10.22/2.04 K/BB/9 and a 3.50 FIP in 17 starts. He was ranked as the Pirates’ 15th best prospect by MLB Pipeline, and the 6’1” left-hander has a lot of deception in his delivery, making his 92 mph fastball play up to go with a devastating slider. If he can get a two-seamer and changeup to be reliably solid offerings, this is a very exciting player. In contrast, Hartle is a large human being at 6’5”, ranked 17th on MLB Pipeline’s list. Having been drafted in the 3rd round this past season, he hasn’t had much pro experience but has a lot of interesting tools and a fastball that tops out at 94, a good slider, and an interesting changeup and cutter. The pitching development group in Cleveland has some work to do here, but there is a big frame with which to do it. Oh, the team also still has Nick Mitchell, low-A outfielder from the Blue Jays, just a nice little lottery ticket thrown in the mix.
The Guardians still maintain their cost savings on the trades they have made tonight, with about $11 million unloaded, and the $84 million Gimenez was owed on his contract. They need to use these savings to acquire another pitcher in a deep free agent market (or via trade) and to look for extensions for players like Steven Kwan and Tanner Bibee. Perhaps, they will try to upgrade the offense in the outfield as well, but those two areas are more of a priority for me from where I sit. They may also have a plan for second base, perhaps the oft-rumored-in-trades Nico Hoerner from the Cubs. But, for now, I am assuming that Angel Martinez or Juan Brito are the plan for second base, and I’m optimistic that either - especially Juan Brito - can contribute average-to-above average production.
Currently, I see the likely roster at some point in April as:
1. Kwan LF
2. Manzardo DH
3. Ramirez 3B
4. Josh Naylor 1B
5. DeLauter/Noel RF
6. Brito or Martinez 2B
7. Thomas CF
8. Rocchio SS
9. Bo C
Rotation:
1. Bibee
2. Williams
3. Ortiz
4. Cantillo
5. Lively
Pen:
McKenzie
Avila
Sabrowski
Walters
Herrin
Gaddis
Smith
Clase
This gives them a little time to sort things out before Stephan returns (I’m positing in May). If they can add another starting pitcher and push Cantillo to Columbus for depth, this is a pretty exciting team. If they can add someone like a Hoerner to play second base and maybe a proven vet to hit left-handed in right field, things are really cooking. Let’s all go watch Luis L. Ortiz highlights and start dreaming!
Mike Mahoney and I recorded a reaction pod as this news broke so we analyzed it there on Disgusting Baseball Podcast, for anyone interested.