Vicente Luque: Shavkat Rakhmonov favored to beat Ian Machado Garry at UFC 310, but Belal Muhammad fight is too close

Vicente Luque knows Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry well from training with both for a long period of time in Florida — and still does with Rakhmonov —, and he thinks the fight is much closer than some anticipate.

Rakhmonov was scheduled to challenge welterweight champion Belal Muhammad at UFC 310 on Dec. 7, headlining the final pay-per-view of the in Las Vegas, and asked for a new opponent for the interim strap when the champion pulled out. Garry stepped in, no belt on the line, and they now face in what’s likely a No. 1 contender clash to determine who faces Muhammad in 2025.

Rakhmonov, Garry and Luque trained under the same roof at Kill Cliff FC before the Irishman moved to Brazil to join Chute Boxe. The 18-0 talent from Uzbekistan is still part of the Florida team, training with Luque on a daily basis.

The Brazilian will also compete on the Dec. 7 card, taking on short-notice replacement Themba Gorimbo, and won’t comment on how Garry and Rakhmonov did against each other in training “because that stays in the gym”. He, however, will break down the fight “based on what I’ve felt” training with both welterweights.

“Garry has a slight advantage on the feet, but not big, because he’s more versatile, has good speed and control of the distance and some unpredictable strikes, but Shavkat has great striking too,” Luque said in an interview with MMA Fighting. “Ian has the advantage [on the feet], but it’s not like he’ll run through him. When we talk about wrestling and the ground, that’s where I think Shavkat is far superior. From what I’ve felt in training, he’s way superior.

“Ian was still very raw on the ground, but I haven’t trained with him for two years. He was in Brazil training with the Chute Boxe guys, Charles ‘do Bronx’ [Oliveira], so I’m sure he has sharpened his ground a lot.”

Garry was originally slated to headline UFC Tampa versus Joaquin Buckley a week later, looking to extend his UFC winning streak after winning his first eight inside the octagon, but Luque now sees him as the underdog at UFC 310 based on the grappling arsenal.

“That’s why I put Shavkat as the favorite, but I’ll never rule Ian out,” Luque said. “He’s a talented guy who learns a lot on the stand-up, and I think that’s the path to victory for him. But the game as a whole, Shavkat is more complete and even has more experience. I’d put him as the favorite on this fight.”

At 30 years of age and 6-0 with six finishes in the UFC against the likes of Stephen Thompson, Geoff Neal and Neil Magny, Rakhmonov is seen by many as a future champion at welterweight. Luque agrees he has all the potential, but can’t underestimate a man like Muhammad.

“He definitely has the game to become champion and someone like that can, in theory, beat everyone, but a fight is a fight,” said Luque, who went 1-1 against Muhammad in the octagon. “I see him with all the tools to beat Belal. He has the confidence high, and that’s an advantage. At the same time, Belal has surprised me many times, including our last fight. I was well-trained and confident, and he defeated me that night. I didn’t expect him to beat ‘Durinho’ [Gilbert Burns] either.

“Belal is evolving a lot, he’s a resilient guy who has gone through some tough fights and difficult moments he had to overcome. I think that strengthens his mental, a guy that won’t quit and is hard to beat. Logic says Shavkat has everything to become champion, but Belal is tough and is giving everybody a hard fight, so I can’t rule him out. I’d stay [on the fence], it’s a 50-50 fight.”