Big Ten: Penn State over Oregon in Indianapolis? It's not a stretch at all

In January, the great Nick Saban hung up his whistle at Alabama, having won six national championships, nine SEC titles and a mind-blowing 206 games over 17 seasons with the Crimson Tide.

Immediately, Oregon coach Dan Lanning, a rising star still in his 30s — and a former graduate assistant at Alabama — became rumored replacement No. 1. After a month or so, though, Lanning put out a minute-long “I’m staying” video, puffing a cigar inside his swanky, capacious office as it faded to black.

It was quite the prophetic start to the year for the Ducks, it seems. With a win Saturday in the Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis, they can break out the victory stogies in celebration of a perfect debut season in the conference and a certain No. 1 seed in the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff.

On the other hand, another pretty damn good team will be at Lucas Oil Stadium, too. No. 1 Oregon (-3½) vs. No. 3 Penn State (7 p.m., CBS 2) is anything but a mismatch.

The Ducks (12-0) — unbeaten through the regular season for the first time since 2010 — are the most well-rounded they’ve ever been, with an offense that ranks 15th nationally (448.5 yards per game) and a defense that ranks seventh (283.8). Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is the face of this team, but it’s the other side of the ball that’s making Lanning, a former defensive coach at Georgia, look so good. Well, that and a practically bottomless NIL stockpile.

But the Nittany Lions (11-1) — in this game because of then-No. 2 Ohio State’s shocking loss to Michigan — are the Big Ten national-title contender the public hasn’t been talking about enough. Defense? This one is even better than Oregon’s, ranked fourth (266.8). Offense? It’s merely a couple of nosehairs behind Oregon’s, ranked 19th (442.8). Dillon’s crisp, easy passing to seemingly wide-open receivers has been widely admired all season, but the finesse lefty ranks eighth in passer rating while PSU’s big, burly Drew Allar is seventh.

Will the Ducks’ speed be a separating factor? They’re bigger than ever and fast like always.

“Yeah, you don’t want [to face] that,” PSU coach James Franklin said this week with a laugh.

But the idea there’s a sizable talent gap here is foolishness. Franklin’s team runs the ball better. It gets after opposing passers with similar virulence. Take all the stats under consideration and it’s pretty much a wash.

Fun facts: It’s these distant conference mates’ first meeting in 30 years, the last one having gone PSU’s way in the Rose Bowl. Franklin is going for victory No. 100 at PSU. Also, one that truly tickles: Even with all the hero worship Indiana coach Curt Cignetti deservedly received in his first season, his fired predecessor, Tom Allen, has made a triumphant return to the state as coordinator of one of the baddest defenses in the land — the Nittany Lions’.

The mighty Ducks as the No. 1 playoff seed? Or the nasty Nits as No. 1 or No. 2? Each team will be in the playoff win or lose, but the stakes are high and it’s truly a tossup. Roll this in your cigar and smoke it: Nits, 27-26.

OTHER CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP PICKS

Big 12: No. 15 Arizona State (-2) vs. No. 16 Iowa State (11 a.m., ABC 7): The best possible outcome for either of these teams heading into the weekend required No. 10 Boise State to lose the Mountain West title game, opening a top-four playoff seed and first-round bye. There was also a potential scenario in which ASU or ISU could get in as the 12th seed, score a first-round upset and get to face Boise State in the quarterfinals. Complicated all the way around. Hey, what about this Big 12 game itself? I’ve been wrong about this league all season, so don’t ask. ASU wins (or does it?) 27-20 in Arlington, Texas.

MAC: Ohio (+2) vs. Miami (Ohio) (11 a.m., ESPN): Defending champ Miami is on a seven-game winning streak that includes a 30-20 outcome at home against the Bobcats. But the Bobcats — still seeking their first MAC title — are 5-0 since that loss, winning those games by an average of 27 points. Cats in a good one, Bob.

SEC: No. 2 Texas (-2½) vs. No. 5 Georgia (3 p.m., ABC 7): Why is Texas favored (and in Atlanta, of all places)? These teams have played already, you know. It was back in October, and Georgia led 23-0 at the half in Austin en route to a 30-15 win over the then-No. 1 Longhorns. Texas simply couldn’t block the Bulldogs, who had seven sacks. Winning QB Carson Beck threw three interceptions, to no real detriment. I must not be smart enough to overlook all that evidence. UGA, 30-24.

Sun Belt: Marshall (+5½) at Louisiana (6:30 p.m., ESPN): Don’t know about you, but I dig a championship game played on the home field of the first-place team. The last three title games have gone the home team’s way — Louisiana in 2021, Troy in 2022 and 2023 — with the winner covering each time. That there is what folks in the biz call a trend. Ragin’ Cajuns win and cover.

ACC: No. 8 SMU (-2½) vs. No. 17 Clemson (7 p.m., ABC 7): SMU has been terrific, rising up defensively and slicing through the ACC like a hot knife through the tenderest brisket in all of Texas. But the football gods don’t want the Mustangs. No, the football gods want Alabama. The only outcome can be Clemson winning and three-loss Alabama being back-doored into the dance by the committee at the expense of the Mustangs. It’s not a playoff until somebody not from the Big Ten or SEC gets shafted. Clemson wins, some way or another.

Last week: 9-3 straight up, 6-6 against the spread.

Season to date: 66-27 straight up, 44-48-1 against the spread.