Report: Padres in ‘Strong Position’ to Sign Sasaki

Updated Post – Dec. 4

Young Japanese ace Roki Sasaki will be posted during the international free agency period that begins on Jan. 15, and the 23-year-old will be highly sought after. Most reports leading into this offseason believed the Los Angeles Dodgers were the favorite, but a new report from Francys Romero (a reporter well-known for his coverage of IFA) says several folks he talked to in the industry believe the San Diego Padres are in a strong position to sign Sasaki.

This is a reminder that because Sasaki has been posted this offseason before he turns 25, he is subject to amateur free agent rules that cap his potential contract at each team’s bonus pool. The top bonus pools for the 2025 period is $7.5 million, with the Athletics, Brewers, Mariners, Marlins, Rays, Reds, Tigers, and Twins having that amount.

The Dodgers have a bonus pool of $5,146,200, while the Padres and Mets start with $6,261,600. However, these are before the deals teams already made with players, like the Mets and Elian Pena for around $5 million.

Updated Post – Nov. 20

Rob Manfred told reporters that Roki Sasaki is expected to be part of the 2025 international signing class.

“It looks like the signing there will happen in the new pool period,” Manfred said.

This means Sasaki likely won’t sign before January 15. The Mets have approximately $6.2 million available for international contracts but have already committed $5 million to signing Elian Peña.

Original Post – Nov. 9

Add another phenom Japanese starter to the market. Roki Sasaki is coming.

The Chiba Lotte Marines announced Saturday they would begin the posting process for Sasaki this winter, making the right-hander an international free agent.

The news isn’t shocking, but rare, due to the age and talent ceiling of Sasaki. He won’t be able to sign a major league contract due to the rules that state a player must be 25 years old and have at least six years of service time.

Instead, Sasaki will fall into either the 2024 or 2025 international amateur draft class depending on the date of his posting. The money teams can spend on international amateurs range between $4.6 and $7.1 million depending on the status of each team’s financials, and teams can add up to 60% of their total by trading for other team’s international money.

If Sasaki had waited till 2027, he certainly could have received a deal in the ballpark of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed a 12-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers last winter. Instead, he’ll take the route that Shohei Ohtani took in the 2017 offseason when he signed with the Angels.

Like Ohtani, Sasaki won’t be swayed by the most international money by a team. His signing will be determined by the team’s market and location. Sasaki is a heavy favorite to sign with the World Champion Dodgers, which would add another immense talent to their roster and a Japanese star to pair with Yamamoto and Ohtani.

The Mets will certainly be in the mix as well. David Stearns told the media he went to Japan in September to watch Sasaki pitch in the Nippon Profesional Baseball league, where the GM called the starter a “unique talent.”

The Mets were also in on Yamamoto when declared free agency last offseason, but found themselves in third place in the sweepstakes behind the Yankees and Dodgers despite offering him the most money. It was clear that Yamamoto wanted to be an LA Dodger, and time will tell if Sasaki has the same mindset.

Wherever he lands, Sasaki has the talent to emerge as a top arm in the game. He has a fastball that reaches triple digits, and pairs it with a splitter that drops off the table. The 22-year-old started 18 games in the NPB this season, posting a 2.35 ERA and 10.5 K/9.

Sasaki garnered national attention in 2023, when he continuously pumped triple-digits at the World Baseball Classic and threw a 19-strikeout perfect game. The burst onto the scene prompted ESPN’s Jeff Passan to write that Sasaki was “at worst, a Jacob deGrom starter kit.”

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