Is Tyler O’Neill a free agent fit for the Cincinnati Reds?

A closer look at one of the top free agent bats on the market.

The Cincinnati Reds have seen plenty of Tyler O’Neill. For parts of six seasons he and his biceps patrolled the outfield for the St. Louis Cardinals, his bat helping fuel a trio of 90+ win seasons for the Cincinnati’s National League Central foes as well as a pair of division titles.

O’Neill was flipped to the Boston Red Sox last winter for his final year of arbitration eligibility, St. Louis seemingly having grown frustrated with his inability to stay on the field throughout the 2022-2023 seasons (just 649 total PA) and his underperformance (just a .707 OPS) in that span. The Cardinals’ loss was Boston’s gain, however, as O’Neill stayed healthier than he had been and poured in a 31 homer, 132 OPS+ campaign to enter free agency.

O’Neill is a big-bat outfielder who raked last year as well as in 2021, a year that saw him blast 34 dingers, post a 148 OPS+, and finish 8th in the National League’s MVP voting. He has twice earned Gold Glove Awards for his efforts in left field, his defense pairing with that electric bat in 2021 to post a 6.1 bWAR/5.3 fWAR season.

The Reds need a big bat and improved defense everywhere, with openings across their outfield given the current nature of their roster. That should make O’Neill a pretty perfect target for them this winter, right?

Let’s take a look.

The Pros

Per Baseball Savant, O’Neill’s barrel-rate was absolutely elite, ranking in the 98th percentile last year among all big leaguers. His 90th percentile ranks in both bat speed and hard-hit rate also suggest that those biceps aren’t just for show - they help fuel one of the more powerful bats out there.

Back in his breakout 2021 campaign, he ranked in the 93rd percentile or better in each of those batting categories as well as in xwOBA, xSLG, launch angle sweet spot rate, and average exit velocity, too.

The Reds in 2024 ranked third to last in average exit velocity as a team, and that’s even with Elly De La Cruz posted atop the lineup. They, as a team, had the second fewest balls hit 95 mph or harder. On top of that, of the 15 players who logged at least 100 PA for the Reds in 2024, outfielders TJ Friedl (12th), Stuart Fairchild (14th), and Jake Fraley (15th) ranked right at the bottom among their peers in terms of average exit velocity.

In other words, O’Neill provides a lot of thump offensively while playing a position where the Reds have no cemented regulars who provide a lot of thump.

The Cons

Opportunity Cost is defined as the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen. In these specific baseball scenarios, it’s the price you way production-wise when picking one outfielder to sign instead of one of his peers.

With O’Neill, perhaps his biggest con is the ‘opportunity’ he provides at all. He played in just 168 of a possible 324 games across the 2022-2023 seasons due to repeated shoulder, back, hamstring, and knee injuries, and knee and leg issues limited him to just 113 games played during his otherwise resurgent 2024 season in Boston. Even during his awesome 2021 season he played in only 138 games, so playing full-time is something that’s eluded him throughout his career.

He’ll be 30 for the 2025 season, so it’s hard to expect his general health to somehow get better going forward. Those leg issues have also taken a toll on his overall athleticism, as both his defensive grades and baserunning grades have slipped over recent seasons, meaning the 15-steal guy he was back in 2021 likely won’t suddenly reappear on a Reds club that likes to run, run, run.

So, to sign him when there are a handful of other, generally healthier outfield options on the market would be a big risk for the budget-conscious Reds, since they likely won’t spend enough to a) land him and b) pay enough to upgrade the rest of the outfield to buttress around O’Neill in the event of more injury issues.

Speaking of ‘buttressing’ the outfield around him, that’s another rub - while his overall numbers are generally good, he sports platoon splits something fierce. He absolutely destroys left-handed pitching, including a ridiculous 1.180 OPS and 16 homers last year in just 156 PA against them. Dating back to the start of the 2021 season there have been 266 MLB hitters who’ve logged at least 300 PA against LHP, and O’Neill’s 167 wRC+ against them ranks behind only Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt.

That number shrinks to just a 106 wRC+ against RHP in that span, however. That’s passable, but it’s also the exact same mark posted against RHP since 2021 as Will Benson and right behind the 107 wRC+ posted by Jonathan India. Solid, but that seems a bit high for a guy MLB Trade Rumors expects to get a 3-year, $42 million guarantee this winter.

On top of all of that, he strikes out a lot. Like, a lot lot. His 33.6% K-rate in 2024 was the second highest out of the 169 MLB players who logged at least 450 PA, and was higher even than Elly’s 31.3%. For a Reds club that has said repeatedly they want to cut down on Ks and become more contact-oriented, O’Neill doesn’t exactly fit that bill.

So, is O’Neill a fit for the Cincinnati Reds?

It’s pretty undeniable that a healthy O’Neill would make the 2025 Cincinnati Reds a better offensive force. Given lefties Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, and Will Benson on the roster, manager Terry Francona could play O’Neill all the time vs. LHP and spell him in some tougher RHP matchups, but the questions become a) is it worth the injury risk and b) would the Reds be better served chasing the stronger-side of a platoon instead.

In other words, would that $14 million a year be better spent finding an upgrade against RHP over the likes of Benson/Fraley and pair that addition with a decent-enough weak-side platoon bat like Stuart Fairchild, who mashes LHP pretty decently when given the option?

The answer to that is probably, yeah. O’Neill would be nice if they were also going to spend money to find an outfielder who could consistenly mash RHP, too, but odds are they aren’t. O’Neill, really, precisely profiles as what he was for last year’s Boston squad - a luxury item that’s more niche than regular that teams willing to spend money should absolutely carry, but an item that a team only spending at the margins should (and will) likely avoid.

That said, he’s only staring at a projected 3/42 contract right now because of that injury history. If he’d been healthier, even that niche offensive profile would probably mean he’d go off the board for more than that. In other words, there’s a bit of ‘bargain’ baked into that deal for any team willing to bet that maybe, just maybe he ends up healthier during the life of the contract than he has been before. When it comes to the Reds, you know they’re always looking for bargains - and O’Neill just might end up being one given he may cost half of what it takes to land peers like Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernandez this winter.