How fast are viruses spreading in the wild?

by Simon Dellicour, Paul Bastide, Pauline Rocu, Denis Fargette, Olivier J. Hardy, Marc A. Suchard, Stéphane Guindon, Philippe Lemey

Genomic data collected from viral outbreaks can be exploited to reconstruct the dispersal history of viral lineages in a two-dimensional space using continuous phylogeographic inference. These spatially explicit reconstructions can subsequently be used to estimate dispersal metrics that can be informative of the dispersal dynamics and the capacity to spread among hosts. Heterogeneous sampling efforts of genomic sequences can however impact the accuracy of phylogeographic dispersal metrics. While the impact of spatial sampling bias on the outcomes of continuous phylogeographic inference has previously been explored, the impact of sampling intensity (i.e., sampling size) when aiming to characterise dispersal patterns through continuous phylogeographic reconstructions has not yet been thoroughly evaluated. In our study, we use simulations to evaluate the robustness of 3 dispersal metrics — a lineage dispersal velocity, a diffusion coefficient, and an isolation-by-distance (IBD) signal metric — to the sampling intensity. Our results reveal that both the diffusion coefficient and IBD signal metrics appear to be the most robust to the number of samples considered for the phylogeographic reconstruction. We then use these 2 dispersal metrics to compare the dispersal pattern and capacity of various viruses spreading in animal populations. Our comparative analysis reveals a broad range of IBD patterns and diffusion coefficients mostly reflecting the dispersal capacity of the main infected host species but also, in some cases, the likely signature of rapid and/or long-distance dispersal events driven by human-mediated movements through animal trade. Overall, our study provides key recommendations for the use of lineage dispersal metrics to consider in future studies and illustrates their application to compare the spread of viruses in various settings.