Deep Dive Into Newest Met Frankie Montas

Frankie Montas, SP

Position: RHP B/T: R/R
Age: 31 (03/21/1993)

2024 Traditional Stats: 30 GS, 7-11, 150 ⅔ IP, 4.84 ERA, 148 SO, 66 BB, 1.367 WHIP
2024 Advanced Stats: 89 ERA+, 22.6% SO%, 10.1% BB%, 4.71 xERA, 4.71 FIP, 4.26 xFIP, 1.4 fWAR

The baseball calendar has turned to December, and with it the Mets made their first big move of the offseason, signing starting 31-year-old pitcher Frankie Montas to a two-year, $34 million deal, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Montas will have a player option for that second year.

RUNDOWN

Montas and the Mets have an immediate past, as he made his final two starts of the 2024 season against New York. In his final start of the season, Montas threw four innings, giving up two earned runs and striking out six. In Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series, he gave up one earned run in under four full innings. The Mets couldn’t tack on runs against him and ended up losing, 5-3. Montas will turn 32 in March.

It’s a return to the Big Apple for Montas, who had a not-so-stellar run with the Yankees after being dealt in a trade deadline move in 2022. In a year-and-a-half in pinstripes, Montas made just eight starts, amassing a 6.15 ERA and a shoulder surgery. 2024 saw him split his time between the Reds and Brewers, putting in a complete season with 30 starts, 150.2 innings pitched, going 7-11 with a 4.84 ERA.

The signing is eerily familiar to Mets fans after David Stearns and his team signed Sean Manaea and Luis Severino to similar “low-risk, high-reward” short-term deals heading into the 2024 season. The Mets hit big with those two signings, and Stearns hopes to do the same here. Montas was also not given the qualifying offer heading into the offseason, continuing the trend of the Mets signing players they wouldn’t have to surrender a draft pick to acquire.

Montas made his bones pitching for the Oakland Athletics (RIP) for six seasons, making 89 starts to a 3.70 ERA and finished sixth in Cy Young voting in 2021, a year in which he finished with a career-high 4.0 fWAR. The Mets are counting on his returning to a pitcher’s park as something that will spark him, but park factors or not, his only elongated success was as an Athletic. Montas had a 111 ERA+ in Oakland and was below average at every other stop.

According to Baseball Savant, His fastball velocity ranked in the 70th percentile in 2024, averaging 95.3 MPH, but his other peripherals weren’t as clean. Montas finished below the 50th percentile in xBA, Average EV, Chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate. He also finished below the 25th percentile in xERA, walk percentage, barrel percentage and hard-hit rate. The Brewers found a way to boost his K% from his time with the Reds, however, going from 7.5 K/9 to 11, while keeping his walk-rate stagnant. Stearns and company will certainly be looking to continue that improvement and beyond with help from the Mets’ pitching lab.

Montas’ four-seam usage increased in 2024, throwing it 33% of the time (up from 28% in 2022 and 12% in his one outing in 2023). He threw his sinker, cutter and splitter at similar rates (19%, 19% and 18%), and rounded out his repertoire throwing his slider 11% of the time. His splitter was by far his best pitch, getting hitters to struggle with a 63 WRC+.

GRADE: B

Frankly, with a low-risk, short-term contract such as this one, and the ones the Mets doled out to Sean Manea and Luis Severino in 2023, it’s nearly impossible to give a grade any higher than a B and any lower than a C. That one-grade difference is predicated upon one’s faith in the baseball decision-maker. After his success in just year one as president of baseball operations, David Stearns certainly has earned the benefit of the doubt.

It’s hard to imagine any major league starting pitching deals ending up with a much shorter AAV than this one. The Angels signed 33-year-old Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $63 million contract, setting the status quo for what to expect in free agency for pitchers. Looking back, the deal for Montas might be another steal for the Mets.

As is true with every early move in a baseball season, the grade will also be looked at differently based on what happens next. With the addition of Montas, three starting pitchers are expected to be in the Opening Day rotation, along with Kodai Senga and David Peterson, neither of whom pitched a full 2024 season. Additional options include José Buttó, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn, injury permitting.

Of course, this is just the first signing of many for the Mets and their rotation. Montas profiles to slot into a backend rotation role, likely a fourth or fifth starter. The Mets don’t expect him to be their ace right now. They will sign more starters. However, as 2024 proved with Manaea and Severino, anything is possible.

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