5 Lessons Learned From a Record-Smashing $424 Million Thanksgiving Box Office | Analysis

The blockbuster triumvirate of Disney’s “Moana 2,” Universal’s “Wicked” and Paramount’s “Gladiator II” have given the theatrical market the biggest Thanksgiving in industry history with an estimated $424 million grossed between Wednesday and Sunday. That’s more than $100 million greater than the previous record for the November holiday period set in 2018 at $315 million.

And when combined with the overall grosses dating back to the release of “Wicked” and “Gladiator II,” the domestic box office has gained more than $680 million over the past 10 days. At the end of October, the year-to-date total was 12% behind last year’s pace. Now it is roughly 7% behind.

It’s an astonishing turn of events from six months ago, when movie theaters were facing the worst start to the summer box office in decades.

“It’s an extraordinary result,” said Daniel Loria, senior vice president of The Boxoffice Company. “Cinemas nationwide responded to consumer demand by allocating 75% of all showtimes in the United States to ‘Moana 2,’ ‘Wicked,’ and ‘Gladiator II,’ according to our data. These blockbusters should enjoy a healthy theatrical run throughout the holiday season and this weekend’s success bodes well for a strong year of moviegoing ahead.”

While there aren’t any “Avatar”-like films in December that could help completely close the gap from 2023, the continued grosses from the three November releases, combined with Christmas titles like “Sonic the Hedgehog 3,” should help theaters close the 2024 box office on a high note.

For now, there’s plenty to dig into from this historic weekend for the movie industry. Here are the big takeaways.

There’s nobody like Disney

Last year, when Disney’s 100th anniversary film “Wish” fizzled out to a $31.6 million 5-day opening, the Thanksgiving weekend box office only reached $173 million overall. “Moana 2” alone has eclipsed that with $221 million over the past five days, passing “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” for the highest Wed.-Sun. launch in U.S. history.

With a $386 million global start and no family films coming out for the next three weeks, “Moana 2” is certain to become the third $1 billion hit this year. The other two? “Inside Out 2” and “Deadpool & Wolverine,” which were also Disney releases.

The past three years have shown with “Top Gun: Maverick” and the “Barbenheimer” craze that other studios are more than capable of supporting the box office. But no studio or franchise has shown the ability to provide the consistent tentpole support that Disney did in the mid-to-late 2010s. After a bumpy 2023, the studio led by CEO Bob Iger is back to delivering multiple megahits, and it’s clear that if the box office is ever going to get back to its pre-pandemic highs, it will need Disney to keep up this high standard.

Streaming helps theaters

The National Association of Theater Owners has maintained that streaming and theatrical don’t have to be at odds, and breakout sequels have proved this. After “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” had a modest theatrical run in 2019, it spent several years building a fanbase from streaming audiences on Netflix that turned out to the tune of $690.5 million worldwide for the 2023 sequel “Across the Spider-Verse.”

For “Moana 2,” which will eclipse its 2016 predecessor’s $643 million theatrical total by next weekend, the power of streaming is in full effect again. With more than 80 billion viewing hours, “Moana” is most watched movie on Disney+. Over the past five years, it has become a film that is near and dear to countless kids and teens, who made up 40% of the sequel’s audience this weekend.

Without Disney+ keeping Moana and Maui fresh in the minds of families, this sequel probably still could have been successful. But it never would have blown past the $125 million five-day Thanksgiving record held by “Frozen II” by nearly $100 million.

“Wicked” is unstoppable

“Moana 2” was a box office tsunami, but “Wicked” was able to surf on that huge wave rather than get drowned by it. Over five days, the musical grossed $117.5 million, and its Fri.-Sun. total of $80 million is just a 28% drop from its $112.5 million opening weekend.

With minimal overseas support — its $262.4 million domestic total comprises 73% of its $359.2 million total so far — “Wicked” won’t end up as one of the top grossing films worldwide. But for American theaters, it’s a windfall, and there’s no sign it’s going to stop.

Because while “Moana 2” will continue to dominate the charts through family turnout, its audience metrics are not quite as strong as “Wicked.” CinemaScore grades came in at A- for “Moana 2” and an A for “Wicked,” and while overall positive scores for both films nearly identical on PostTrak — 89% for “Moana 2” and 90% for “Wicked” — a bigger percentage of the opening weekend audience for “Wicked” gave it the highest rating of “definite recommend” at 80% compared to 64% for “Moana 2.”

Among the films currently in theaters, “Wicked” has the best chance of persuading moviegoers outside its core audience to give it a try based on audience buzz. At this pace, the musical has a chance at a $500 million domestic run — and Universal’s decision to hold singalong screenings at Christmas shows just how confident the studio is in its ability to leg out.

“Gladiator II” is quietly humming along

Paramount’s R-rated contribution to the Thanksgiving bonanza may not have put up the huge numbers of its family friendly counterparts, but “Gladiator II” deserves its laurels nonetheless.

As expected, Ridley Scott’s legacy-quel is quietly drawing in moviegoers looking for something more intense than the musical offerings provided by Disney and Universal. It made $44 million over the extended weekend to bring its total to $112 million domestic and $320 million worldwide, putting it on pace to earn between $450-525 million worldwide.

What’s notable about this weekend is that “Gladiator II” continues to bring out an age-diverse audience, with 52% of this weekend’s crowd under the age of 35. Paramount insiders told TheWrap last week that they anticipated weekend demographics to steadily skew older as Gen X and Boomer audiences who saw the first “Gladiator” in theaters turn out in later weeks. But that hasn’t happened yet, as a new generation is discovering how exciting sword-and-sandals films can be.

Don’t be afraid to counterprogram

The past two weekends haven’t shown signs that moviegoers are turning out to theaters for a double feature like they did for “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” last year. But the market is still supporting three tentpole movies that are attracting different audience segments.

Perhaps the biggest and most encouraging lesson for studios: As long as the movies are well received and don’t have significant core audience overlap, there’s room for more than one big-budget title in theaters at any given time of the year. Amid the uncertainty of the past three years, distributors have tended to give each other’s four-quadrant movies wide berth from each other to avoid competition.

These blockbusters should enjoy a healthy theatrical run throughout the holiday season and this weekend’s success bodes well for a strong year of moviegoing ahead.

— Daniel Loria, The Boxoffice Company

With more films expected to arrive in theaters in the years ahead, there will be less breathing room. But that’s not something anyone should fear. Universal’s decision to move the release of “Wicked” a week back to gain word-of-mouth from a weekend free of “Moana 2” paid off big, and now both films are off to the races.

Next year, Thanksgiving should bring another weekend of riches to studios and theaters alike. Universal will be back with “Wicked — Part II” the weekend before the holiday while Disney will have another sequel with “Zootopia 2.” (The 2016 original grossed more than $1 billion worldwide.) Meanwhile, Paramount and Angel Studios will aim where those studios aren’t with Glen Powell’s take on Stephen King’s “The Running Man” and the animated faith-based musical “David.”

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