The Case for Plan Z

As the Mariners move through this offseason with three holes in the infield, $15 million dollars available to fill those holes, and the prospect of continued salary arbitration raises in forthcoming seasons it causes one to wonder how they will succeed and for how much longer is that even possible. How long is this contention window anyways? We were promised a decade of 54% winning, but when the cable deals fell through a year ago, they started making moves to lower payroll right when they were clearly at the point of maximizing their winnings. A year later Julio, Cal, Logan, and Kirby have all become more expensive, and they have the escalating salary of Randy now as well. Some of the current salaries will be off the books by next season, but at the same time all of these plus more will continue to escalate, and at least some of those salaries that will be off the books are for players that are important to the current core (Crawford and Moore) and must be resigned at a higher salary or replaced.

I think it would be helpful to plan for a reset in the not to distant future. Maybe one more year of contention. Maybe two. But if they can’t fill the holes this year, they won’t be able to afford the arbitration raises in the years to come, and will have even more holes than they do now. And if they can offload Cal, Logan, and/or Kirby while they still have at least a year of control left they will be in a position to possibly just have a reset for a year or two instead of a five year rebuild. This will also be on a nice timeline with getting some playing time for their next crop of prospects: Young, Ford, Emerson, Montes, etc.

So how should they approach this offseason if they realistically view their window as being one to two more years? I suggest Plan Z: trading one of their four young pitchers. But trading specifically for multiple short term gains. Gilbert for Westburg might save some money this year, but it’s just trading three wins for three wins. The goal is to trade those 2-3 wins now for 5 or more wins now and fewer wins in two to three years. As such, this plan probably won’t work too well with another contender who wants Logan Gilbert at the top of their rotation, as they will want those short term assets themselves. The best trade would be with a team that is entering a rebuild and has some short term assets it doesn’t have a need for. As such, the best assets to encourage such a trade would be the longer term ones: Miller and Woo. Any team willing to offload 5+ WAR of talent in 2025 will want a player back who will still be around in 5 years when they are competitive again.

What teams fit this category? The Cardinals, Marlins, and Rays come to mind. If there are other teams you think could be in this category, let me know. I think the Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Guardians might be close, but I don’t know that any have already signaled this sort of intention. The Marlins don’t have many short term assets left, certainly not enough to warrant trading Miller or Woo. And they probably are more interested in the same thing the Mariners are looking for: hitters. That leaves the Cardinals and the Rays. I will look at a trade option for each of these.

Cardinals

The Cardinals have been very clear about taking a step back and that they place a high value on young starting pitchers. They also have a lot of decent bats across the infield and several others in the minors they want to get some playing time form. This seems like a great place to shop Plan Z, but there is a catch.

Many of their best players have no trade clauses that will have to be considered in any deal. The Cardinals have been gauging the interest these players have had in moving on to a competitive team. They specifically are interested in trading Nolan Arenado. Arenado is apparently interested enough in a trade that he would be willing to move to first base if it made sense. (Narrator voice: it won’t make sense.) So Arenado waiving the NTC to go to a competitive team seems like it is in the cards, though it’s possible that the prospect of playing in T-Mobile would put the deal on hold. What’s less clear is whether Sonny Gray is willing to waive the NTC to move to a competitive team, as this hasn’t come up in any of the trade rumors. It’s possible that he would, and moving to T-Mobile would likely be a boon.

The other challenge, of course, is that each of these players individually would blow past the offseason spending limit. Although the Cards are wanting to shed salary, some of the reporting indicates they have probably done enough of that already and can send some amount of money over in a deal that involves these players. They would probably have to if they wanted the deal to happen.

Proposal: Mariners trade Bryce Miller, Emerson Hancock, Mitch Haniger, and PTBNLs to the Cardinals for Sonny Gray, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado, and ~$40 million.

The PTBNLs could be one or two prospects in the top 15-20. They could also throw in Canzone (not as a PTBNL but instead of one), as he is someone that could get some looks in their outfield in a rebuilding year. Likewise, Hancock is down to one option year and they could see how he plays out over a full season as a starter when they are in rebuild mode and perhaps he fills in their back of the rotation for a few years once the rest of their aging starters are off the books.

The cash is there to cover most of Gray’s salary for the remainder of his contract. The M’s would be on the hook for Arenado’s salary, including the deferred money. But this is mostly offset by Haniger’s salary going the other way in the first year and the remaining two years are relatively reasonable. Hopefully they can handle 2 million a year for a decade or so for the deferred money, if not then maybe the PTBNLs need to be in a higher tier. The net salary bump from this trade would be around 10-15 million dollars in 2025. The net increase in WAR next year is around 6. They might still have enough money left for Turner. But they might not have a place to play him if they want to give Locklear and eventually Young and Ford a decent look next year. They will have the positional flexibility to have one of those players in the lineup every day, and the depth for it not to hurt them as they learn the ropes.

There is still a pretty good chance that Gray loves country music enough to nix the deal. In that case, perhaps substituting Mikolas and Helsley for Gray, removing Hancock and some of the PTBNLs, and/or increasing the money coming back to Seattle would make it work. But I don’t think either side would like that deal quite as much. Maybe if Divish posted more country songs on Twitter these days it would help a little bit to get this deal done.

Rays

The Rays don’t even have their own stadium next year, Franco is still out and they have an aging core blocking the next crop of prospects while Baltimore and New York are surging. Clearly time for a massive sell off for the Rays. There are no NTCs or massive salaries on the Rays side getting in the way this time. So I’ll start with the proposal and then discuss some of the challenges with it and how they might be addressed.

Proposal: Mariners trade Bryan Woo, Mitch Haniger, and a PTBNL to the Rays for Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, and Jeffrey Springs

The massive wrench in this deal is the Rays taking the dead weight of Haniger’s salary back. They will still be saving 2 million this year because of this deal, and over 10 million in 2026. But the Rays don’t often take on dead money in deals. Perhaps the year away from home will make things different this time. Or maybe the M’s pay down some of Haniger’s salary, don’t send over a PTBNL, and/or get another minor piece back as well. The other challenge to this deal from the Rays side is they typically are getting more MiLB pieces back for a single MLB player instead of sending over multiple seasoned MLB players for a single young cost controlled player. They seem to like the law of averages, and this is a lot of eggs to put in the exceedingly fragile Bryan Woo shaped basket.

If this move does happen, the Mariners will have covered 2 infield holes, found a reasonable, if equally health risk, fifth starter to replace the pitcher they traded away, and increased their predicted WAR for next season by around 5 or 6. And they still have plenty of money left to look for someone to cover the hot corner, either via trade or free agency. Unfortunately, that is the one opening they are least likely to find a good in house solution for, so this single trade doesn’t complete their offseason.

More than likely if there is a trade between the Mariners and the Rays it will be for Lowe and/or Diaz. But it will more likely involve some combination of Young, Ford, Hancock, and/or Locklear than this Plan Z option. And it will use up most of their available money.

Summary

Even if the Mariners do see the value of Plan Z to help them win it all while they still have a chance, the potential trade partners aren’t readily available and have their own limitations in their willingness to engage on such terms. Perhaps Plan Z was a great name for it for this very reason.

Thanks for reading this fanpost. I would be interested in any of the following feedback:

• Other teams that could fit into Plan Z that would involve a 5+ WAR net gain in 2025.
• Other feasible plans to get a 5+ WAR net gain in 2025 that are within the $15 million remaining budget.
• The feasibility of either of these trade proposals which did not involve any BTV cross referencing.

However I have no interest in anyone's ravioli recipes.