Sara Duterte has decided to draw first blood. Her 2 am rant to assassinate the President, the First Lady, and the House Speaker upped the ante: the petty spat has now turned into a dynastic battle. Father Digong, whom the Vice President (VP) has very little respect for, has joined the fray, announcing that he would bring colonels and generals into his plot to destroy his successor.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has taken the moral high ground. His retort sounded presidential and delivered in a way he wanted us to believe him to be — the Father of the Nation. The more combative — and, frankly, the one we must take more seriously — is the speech by the cousin. The decisive outcome lies not in Malacañang but at the Batasan, where Speaker Martin Romualdez now must convince, cajole, and compromise with House members to back him and the President. And the cousins have the countryside funds they can dangle as carrots to these representatives. 

Not that the political fortunes of some of these congressmen and congresswomen were in danger; now they have firmly secured their hold over their respective bailiwicks. The money would most likely be needed to protect their developmental image and ensure that voters still go for them. What seems to be the standard practice today is for clans and bosses to allocate some of the spoils they amassed for the public’s benefit. The slogan “He steals, but he gets things done,” which was how Brazilians described their governor-strongman, Adhemar de Barros, now applies to any member of Congress. 

But having that war chest does not guarantee congressional dominance over the Vice President. History has not been unkind to incumbents with wealth. Fidel Ramos had a resurgent economy and a unified legislature behind him when he endorsed House Speaker Jose de Venecia as his successor. Erap Estrada easily beat him in the polls. Benigno Aquino III had a strong economy, a reformist record that was widely admired, and also a legislature behind him. Rodrigo Duterte routed Mar Roxas in the 2016 elections. 

Speaker Romualdez is undoubtedly aware of these precedents. He knows he can never relax his guard for congressional loyalty, which can be fleetingly ephemeral. If he does, he will surely expect a torrent of turncoats heading Davao’s way, especially if the Vice President is successful in her attacks. Though we may see earnest politicos grilling civil officials and political appointees close to Sara Duterte, what we do not see are also the efforts of these congressmen and women to ascertain the view of their respective local constituencies. They are most sensitive as to where the provincial winds blow, and if the people in their boroughs and satrapies show signs of concern over their attacks on the Vice President. These voters may accept bribe money on election day, but also vote for rivals who have bent their knees to Duterte.

In a country now run by dynasties, the real indicator of some semblance of the popular will lies in the regions and not in the metropolitan centers. What one sees on TV are musings of pundits living comfortably in the center with nary a knowledge of local power and the obese dynasties that wield it.

But the VP is also taking a risk here. Her tantrum has exposed many Filipinos to her political persona, one they only had a glimpse of when she beat up that housing official who did not listen to her. Now it’s Imax galore, and one suspects that after six years under her father, Filipinos do not want to go through another brutal Duterte presidency. 

She is aware of this too, but the VP is betting that complementing her moments of rage is a self-effacing conversation with the media, where she taps on its naïve assumptions that she still must be accorded the respect as holder of the second highest position of the land. Hopefully, she keeps her base dedicated to her, a following that now sees her as the victim of a plot by the Marcoses, a conniving elite that has yet to admit it stole billions from the Filipino people. She is their champion, and her stature is raised higher by the deference she has shown to those investigating her and the media, a quality they admire in benevolent despots like her father. 

You can say all you want about the dark legacy of the Marcoses. Still, you also cannot deny that under the reign of Ferdinand the Second, some normalcy has returned to the practice, routines, and decorum of governance. A congress seems to be genuinely taking its tasks of legislating and investigating, and even clueless alalays (assistants) of the Vice President in the Senate sometimes have to behave like statesmen. The judiciary also appears to be interpreting the law like a third independent branch of government, and even Ferdinand II has experienced some success in acting as president. 

Sara plans to disrupt this normalcy and create chaos that can derail legislative and prosecutorial efforts to rein in her powers and expose her corruption. Thus, there was her sudden appearances at the Good Governance sub-committee hearings, complete with her phony Joan of Arc drama to protect her friend and chief-of-staff, and her demand to be informed of national security briefings. Her opponents’ response has been to use the institution’s powers to batter her down, expose her as yet another spoiled woman and patronage politico, and hopefully erode her mass base.

So, welcome to this grinding war, one that may even last until the battle lines are clear come the May 2025 mid-term elections. Matira ang matibay (May the toughest one survive) and the first to blink loses the political and propaganda war. Get the popcorn ready and look forward to a long Coppola-like political flick. – Rappler.com

Patricio N. Abinales teaches Modern Philippines at the University of Hawai’i-Manoa. His next project is an Almanac on Philippine Cuisine.