Crossfire: Sign Corbin Burnes or Blake Snell?

With the Hot Stove warming up with Winter Meetings right around the corner, the Mets look to remain in the free agent market this offseason. They’ve already made a slew of depth signings, along with a trade for Rays outfielder Jose Sirí, effectively replacing Harrison Bader at a fraction of the cost. While Juan Soto is on everyone’s mind, the Mets’ have a handful of rotation spots left to fill. Kodai Senga and David Peterson remain the only locks entering 2025 after Sean Manaea and Luis Severino rejected the team’s qualifying offer, and Jose Quintana enters free agency.

There’s no doubt the Mets will continue to make similar one-to-two-year signings for low-risk, high-reward pitchers after their success last year. However, the question remains: will they target a front-line starter? The ace market is thin, and names like Max Fried and, of course, Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell will be on everyone’s radar.

However, of the four, Burnes and Snell stand out as two pitchers who would star as true aces on a team and have done so in the past. So, who should the Mets sign to fill their number one spot in the rotation? A four-time All-Star and NL Cy Young like Burnes or two-time Cy Young winner and ERA leader?

Fellow MMO editor Mathias Altman-Kurosaki and I debate.

Sign Blake Snell

If you asked me in June who my top pitching target was, the answer would’ve been Corbin Burnes. Once Snell returned from the injured list though, he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. From July 9 until the end of the season, Snell had a 1.23 ERA with 114 strikeouts and held opponents to a .382 OPS over 80 1/3 innings. This dominant stretch included a no-hitter against the Reds. What this tells me is that with a normal spring training, Blake Snell has the potential to contend for another Cy Young award. Snell has had control problems in the past, making him a riskier arm, but he was able to keep the walks in check in 2024, especially when he came back from the IL. At this point, Snell has a higher ceiling than Burnes and will be worth the contract he’s commanding.

Sign Corbin Burnes

It’s crazy to say Corbin Burnes struggled in 2024 while still posting a 2.92 ERA. Yes, he went through some rough stretches but worked to adjust a few pitch mechanics, specifically on his cutter, and the ace was back to normal. The O’s gave up a hefty haul for a year of Burnes, and he delivered another sub-3.00 ERA, his fifth in seven years of big league play. Arguably the best starter in the 2024-2025 free agent class, Burnes ranked in the 98th percentile in run value, 96th percentile in fastball run value, 88th percentile in breaking run value, 95th percentile in hard-hit percentage, 91st percentile in fastball velocity and 89th percentile in chase percentage.

While there are concerns regarding Burnes striking out a career-low 23.1% of batters in 2024, his velocity shows no signs of decline. According to Baseball Savant, his average fastball velocity in 2024 sat at 95.5 mph, up from 94.5 mph in 2023 and matching his 2021 Cy Young winning season velocity. While he may not be the strikeout pitcher he once was, there’s more said for durability. Since debuting in 2018, Burnes has only spent time on the IL twice, and once was for COVID-19.

He possesses a clutch factor — a 2.33 career ERA in the postseason. He most recently pitched eight innings of one-run ball for the Orioles against the Royals in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series.

While strikeouts and flashy awards are sexy at the end of the day, durability cannot be overlooked. His contract will be hefty, certainly over the $200 million mark, but at the end of the day, the Mets need a bona fide ace. Burnes fits that role and can act as a mentor to younger pitchers in the organization as well.

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