Thanksgiving forecast: More travelers, cheaper gas

The torrent of rain that has inundated Northern California won’t derail Thanksgiving travel plans for Justin Koehler.

As in any other year, the San Rafael resident will set out on a roughly 350-mile road trip north to Crescent City to enjoy the holiday with his family. The drive takes more than six hours, he said, but winter storms won’t stop him.

“For now, I am just waiting for the weather to die down,” he said. “Don’t drive up north. There’s less traffic for me.”

AAA, formerly the American Automobile Association, is projecting that nearly 80 million people will travel this week for Thanksgiving, setting new records and exceeding the travel numbers before the pandemic. About 10.7 million of the travelers will be from California.

“Thanksgiving tops the charts as the busiest travel holiday, and this year we’re on track to break records across every mode — from road trips to flights and cruises,” said Cyndi Zesk, a vice president at AAA Northern California. “Thanksgiving is all about reuniting and celebrating with loved ones, and these numbers reflect that commitment to family.”

This year, the organization projects an increase of 1.7 million travelers compared to last year and 2 million more than in 2019. The vast majority — a projected 79.9 million people – will go 50 miles or more from home for the holiday, measured in the seven-day period between Tuesday and Dec. 2.

Of those, 71.7 million people, or 9.32 million Californians, will drive, an increase of 1.3 million more people compared to last year. A projected 5.84 million people, or 1.1 million Californians, will fly, a 2% increase compared to last year. Nearly 2.3 million people, or 296,000 Californians, are expected to travel by bus, cruise or train, representing a 9% increase compared to last year.

The recent deluge of rain in the northern part of the state is considered the biggest potential obstacle to travel, AAA spokesperson John Treanor said.

“It may cause delays at airports, but we don’t think it will make a big impact on the total number of travelers nationwide,” Treanor said. “I don’t know that the weather is so bad that travelers would cancel their trips.”

Michelle May of Fairfax said she plans to stay local, traveling just far enough to pick up her 25-year-old son in Novato before preparing dinner with her daughters at home.

May said some of the family’s time also will be spent volunteering at St. Vincent de Paul in San Rafael helping the needy.

“This year more than any other year I am so grateful that I see the community pulling together,” she said.

San Rafael resident Domenico Bartolozzi usually celebrates with this wife’s family in Marin or Petaluma. But with the children grown, he said, there were no immediate plans.

“If someone invites me, I may go, I may not,” he said. ”There is affordability. Everything is more expensive. Turkeys are more expensive, vegetables are more expensive.”

Food inflation aside, lower fuel prices could enable travelers to spend money elsewhere, Treanor said. The average price for a gallon of gas in California is $4.44. A year ago, the price was $4.94. In Marin, the average fuel price is $4.55, compared to $5.05 last year. Nationally, the average gas price is $3.05.

“That’s half a buck cheaper. That will make it a little easier on the wallet for people while traveling,” Treanor said. “It’s more affordable and that’s a little more in people’s pockets.”