Just How Glicked Will the 2025 Oscars Get?

Whether you call it “Glicked” or “Wickiator” (or even Justin Chang’s preferred “Wadiator,” which sounds to me like a lot of hot air), this weekend’s simultaneous arrival of Gladiator II and Wicked feels like the closest thing we’ve seen to a true heir of “Barbenheimer.” The comparison is inevitable — two huge films releasing on the same day, one girl-coded and one boy-coded — and perfectly reasonable, as long as you abandon any assumption that they will match or surpass the “Barbenheimer” phenomenon. These films can be very, very successful without beating their predecessors’ combined $235 million opening weekend. (Or, it must be said, their level of quality.)

The same goes at the Oscars, where Barbie and Oppenheimer were the defining event of the 2024 awards season. The duo combined for 21 nominations and eight wins, including a Best Picture prize for Oppie. No matter how well they perform, Wicked and Gladiator probably aren’t coming close to that tally. That’s okay!

Now that expectations have been set, let’s focus on the optimistic case. Putting aside the comparison to last season’s two-headed colossus, how well can “Wickiator” do this awards season?

Both are arriving at precisely the right time. In this strike-marred season, consensus had it that the fall-festival crop was slightly weaker this year. Now, alongside Dune: Part Two, Wicked and Gladiator seem set to give the Oscars field a fresh dose of blockbuster oomph. Of the pair, Wicked’s the one with stronger reviews and stronger box-office tracking, so that’s the one that’s making my Best Picture ten at the moment. But I wouldn’t be gobsmacked if Gladiator snuck in, as well: It’s an old-school masculine epic that could appeal to the Academy’s “meat and potatoes” voters, a bloc powerful enough to get films like Top Gun: Maverick and Ford v Ferrari into the Best Picture category in the past.

Prospects are more mixed elsewhere above the line. The directors branch is notoriously snobby, which will be a tough row to hoe for Wicked’s Jon M. Chu, who got his start directing films in the Step Up and G.I. Joe franchises. Gladiator II’s Ridley Scott has some “overdue” equity — he’s never won an Oscar, not even when the first Gladiator won Best Picture — but Scott hasn’t been nominated for directing since Black Hawk Down, and this branch’s recent preference for highbrow auteurs suggests their tastes have moved on. Screenplay is a slightly better bet, as there are spots up for grabs in the Adapted race, where both Wicked and Gladiator are slotted. But at a combined run time of over five hours, some might suggest these movies should have featured more adaptation.

Fortunately, both campaigns can count on a powerful supporting performance to bolster their bids. Denzel Washington has been almost unanimously acclaimed as the best part of Gladiator II. “You start to root for his relentless climb to the top,” Vulture’s Alison Willmore says of his turn as a political schemer who sports more rings than the human hand should be able to handle. Washington feels due more accolades; depending on how the race shakes out, he could even contend for the trophy that would mark his entry into Oscar’s three-timers’ club.

Wicked’s Ariana Grande feels less assured, if only because she’s more of an awards-season interloper than Washington. The pop star is awfully winning her first major film role — she had cameos in Zoolander 2 and Don’t Look Up — turning in a performance that, as our own Bilge Ebiri writes, “gives real comic shape to Glinda’s popular-girl frivolity.” With Wicked’s Oscar buzz growing by the day, more pundits expect Grande to get in than not.

Things are also looking up for Grande’s onscreen frenemy, Cynthia Erivo. “Erivo can hit the notes no problem, but it’s the work she does in close-up” that seals the deal for Variety’s Peter Debruge: Her “subtler approach invites audiences under the character’s (green-tinted) skin.” Erivo’s arrival means an already stacked Best Actress race just got even tougher. I can’t say the same for Gladiator II’s Paul Mescal, whose middling notices indicate he may not factor into a relatively weak Best Actor field.

While the two movies will steer clear of each other in the acting races, it’s in the craft categories where they’ll truly go head-to-head. Here, too, Wicked looks to have the advantage, as it should benefit from the below-the-line races’ own form of gender essentialism. The musical looks to be the early frontrunner in female-friendly categories like Costume Design and Production Design. (Depending how bullish you are on The Substance, maybe Makeup & Hairstyling, too.) Gladiator II could compete there, too, but its best chance at gold will come in male-coded races like Sound and Visual Effects, where it’s up against Dune: Part Two.

As for whether either of these films can follow Oppenheimer’s path to Oscar glory, a part two or a part one hasn’t won Best Picture since the Godfather films back in the ’70s. So were that to happen, it would certainly be defying pundits’ expectations as well as gravity.

Oscar Futures: Tangled Up in … Gold?

Every week between now and January 17, when the nominations for the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscar race. In our “Oscar Futures” column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.