Here's how much Thanksgiving dinner will cost this year

(NewsNation) — Thanksgiving dinner will cost less this year thanks to lower turkey prices, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual survey released Wednesday.

The survey found that a classic feast for 10 will cost $58.08 this year, a 5% decrease from 2023 and down from a record high of $64.05 in 2022.

It's the second year in a row that American families can expect to spend less on Thanksgiving dinner, but the cost is still almost 20% higher than before the pandemic in 2019.

"We are seeing modest improvements in the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for a second year, but America’s families, including farm families, are still being hurt by high inflation,” AFBF President Zippy Duvall said in a statement.

This year's decline is partially due to lower turkey prices, which have dropped 6% from a year ago despite a bird flu outbreak.

"The American turkey flock is the smallest it’s been since 1985 because of avian influenza, but overall, demand has also fallen, resulting in lower prices at the grocery store for families planning a holiday meal," AFBF economist Bernt Nelson said in a statement.

Other Thanksgiving staples, like pumpkin pie mix, vegetables, and sweet potatoes, are also less expensive than a year ago.

The cost of whole milk has dropped more than other items, falling 14% from a year earlier because of favorable weather conditions for dairy farmers, AFBF said. Meanwhile, a pound of frozen peas is down to $1.73, an 8% decline from 2023.

But it's not all good news. The survey found some prices, particularly processed food, have gone up.

Items like dinner rolls and cubed stuffing saw an 8% increase due to higher labor costs. Cranberry prices have also shot up, almost 12% year over year, though that's still in line with historical averages, the AFBF said.

There were also regional differences in the cost of a meal. Those celebrating in the West can expect to spend at least 15% more than the rest of the country: $67.81 for a party of 10. Southern dinners will cost the least at $56.81, followed closely by the Northeast at $57.36 and $58.90 in the Midwest, according to the survey.

The AFBF's report is a promising sign that Americans are finally seeing some relief at the grocery store. Since Jan. 2021, grocery bills are up more than 22%, according to government inflation data.

However, the rise in grocery prices has slowed significantly since the start of 2024, hovering around a 1% annual rate.

The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 39th annual Thanksgiving dinner survey comes from Farm Bureau shoppers who checked store prices between Nov. 1 and 7 across all 50 states and Puerto Rico.

The AFBF said the shoppers didn't take advantage of special promotions and collected the data before most grocery chains started discounting turkey prices.

Here’s how Thanksgiving prices compare to a year ago, according to the AFBF:

• 16-pound turkey: $25.67 (-6.1%)
• 14 ounces of cubed stuffing mix: $4.08 (+8.2%)
• 2 frozen pie crusts: $3.40 (-2.9%)
• Half pint of whipping cream: $1.81 (+4.7%)
• 1 pound of frozen peas: $1.73 (-8.1%)
• 1 dozen dinner rolls: $4.16 (+8.4%)
• Misc. ingredients to prepare the meal: $3.75 (-5.1%)
• 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $4.15 (-6.5%)
• 1 gallon of whole milk: $3.21 (-14.3%)
• 3 pounds of sweet potatoes: $2.93 (-26.2%)
• 1-pound veggie tray (carrots & celery): $.84 (-6.4%)
• 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $2.35 (+11.8%)

Some retailers, like Target, Walmart, and Aldi, are competing for a place at the holiday table with turkey dinner deals and promotions.