The Early Line

By Ron Signore

Here we are approaching week 12 of the 2024 NFL season. It has gone by quickly to say the least. It has had its ups and downs, but it has allowed for continuous guessing as we figure out our plays each week.

The reality is that the NFL has some power teams, some good teams, some average teams, and then some bad teams. Sometimes those divisions in team caliber get blurred, which makes the short-term memory for a gambler very difficult to trust.

In week 12, there are some marquee matchups to consider as the early lines get reviewed this week.

Things kick off Thursday night with an AFC North showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns. This age-old rivalry sees the tale of two teams on two completely different courses. The Steelers tout an 8-2 record both straight up and against the spread, coming fresh off beating another divisional rival in the Baltimore Ravens. The Browns are 2-8 on the season, but more specifically being 3-7 against the spread. The current line is the Browns getting 3.5 points at home on a nationally televised game. Normally, I would be inclined to follow the great Brent Musberger in the concept of nothing being greater than a home team getting points. However, the Browns are that bad. Lay the points up to 5 with the Steelers.

Here in the Chicagoland area brings another game with eyes when we see the 4-6 Bears (6-4 ATS) host the 8-2 Minnesota Vikings. The Bears just lost a heart breaker at home to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, 20-19 by way of a blocked field goal. The Vikings are fresh off a win in Nashville, and Sam Darnold has shown he is no longer seeing ghosts as he continues to sling the rock up and down the field. Despite Minnesota racking up points and wins this season, the Bears D has been stubborn to opposing offenses. The Bears are getting 3.5 at home in a game where I can see a FG being the difference. Take the points with the Bears no farther down than 3.

The national game on Sunday afternoon has been circled on my calendar since the day schedules have been released. This puts the 7-3 Packers hosting the 5-5 San Francisco 49ers. Ironically, both teams are 4-6 against the spread. Do not let that fool you. Both teams have had some adversity to overcome. Jordan Love was out a few weeks after sustaining a knee injury during the week 1 tilt versus the Eagles. The 49ers have only had Christian McCaffery back since week 10 and are without core WR Bandon Aiyuk for the remainder of the season. This has led to some inconsistency from a typically solid performer in QB Brock Purdy. Lambeau is a tough place to play, even more tough as the weather turns. The forecast currently holds partly cloudy skies and temps in the 40’s for Sunday as the Packers are laying 2.5 points as home favorites against the visitors from San Francisco. Despite a shaky Jake Moody missing 3 FGs in week 10, this week is make or break for the 49ers, and historically, Kyle Shannahan has had Matt LeFleur’s number in Green Bay. Take the points with the 49ers.

The other game in the NFC North contains the 9-1 Lions against the 5-6 Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are a dumpster fire riddled with inconsistency and incompetence. The Lions are 7.5 point road favorites. Ironically, they are 8-2 (Lions) and 8-3 (Colts) against the spread. The majority of the time, I would urge taking the home team with so many points. However, this Lions team is clicking on every cylinder offensively and defensively. Watch this line, see where the money is going. If the line drops to 7 or below, that would indicate that people are taking the Colts with the points. With their record against the spread, there is some value there, however, I will ride the wave in laying the points with the road favorites up to 8.5. The lions have put up some 50-burgers where even if they don’t put up 50 on the Colts, they will score enough and hold the Colts enough to cover at least 9 points.

The final game of the week on Monday night featuring the 3 point road favorite Ravens (7-4, 5-5-1 ATS) traveling to the Jim Harbaugh led Los Angeles Chargers (7-3, 7-2-1 ATS). Outside of the fact that the Harbaugh brothers will be coaching against each other again, the reality is you have two teams that are playing good football. Both teams have an efficient offense, though the Ravens have some edge being armed with Lamar Jackson and Derick Henry who are just lighting teams up this season. This is one I have two plays on. First, I will take the home team with the points. I think this will be a tight game that does ultimately come down to a field goal. The second play will focus on the total with the over/under being 50.5. With the Chargers defense allowing just over 14 points per game, I foresee a lot of field goals and the clock continuously running with both teams ground attack. I am going with under 50.5 points.

Good Luck!

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