What Trump's presidency means for the future of AI

• Donald Trump has surrounded himself with people who have competing views on AI regulation.
• Elon Musk, for example, has supported more AI regulation in the past.
• JD Vance, on the other hand, has called for less focus on regulation and more on innovation.

Some Silicon Valley veterans are betting that president-elect Donald Trump's new administration will make AI development a top priority.

"The campaign by woke Big AI to gain a regulatory capture cartel in Washington just imploded," venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, who endorsed Trump and donated $2.5 million to a pro-Trump Super PAC, posted on X recently. "Stick a fork in it, it's over. The US will be the preeminent AI superpower in the world after all."

It might not be so simple, however. Trump has surrounded himself with people who have differing views on AI regulation.

On one hand, his allies are pushing hard to develop AI quickly. The Washington Post reported in July that some advisors close to Trump had drafted an executive order to intensify US attention to the technology, including plans for "Manhattan Projects" to develop AI military technology, new frameworks for evaluating AI models, and reviews of AI regulations signed by President Joe Biden. Trump himself promised to repeal Biden's executive order on AI in the interest of furthering innovation.

Elon Musk, however, may emerge as a figure of relative caution amid the new administration.

Musk, who spent over $130 million on Trump's campaign, has called for greater regulation of AI in the past. He supported California's SB1047 to regulate AI, which California Gov. Gavin Newsom ultimately vetoed. He also sued OpenAI, which he founded with Sam Altman and Greg Brockman to develop AI in a way that benefits humanity, accusing them of prioritizing profits over principles.

Former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who is Musk's partner in the new Department of Government Efficiency, has also called for a close watch on the technology.

"Just like you can't dump your chemicals, if you're a chemical company, in somebody else's river, well if you're developing an AI algorithm today that has a negative impact on other people, you bear the liability for it," he said at a press conference last year. "I think AI can have a lot of good uses in this country. But there are also real risks."

Musk and Ramaswamy also plan to increase government efficiency through "regulatory rescissions, administrative reductions, and cost savings," they wrote in an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal this week.

It's not clear if that effort will impact their views on AI regulation. However, some in the tech industry expect Musk's influence on Trump to lead to softer regulations and a more vibrant climate for tech startups.

Vice President-elect JD Vance will likely be an ally of those hoping for reduced regulation. Vance, who spent a little under five years in Silicon Valley as both a venture capitalist and biotech executive, has been an advocate for reducing regulations on the technology.

At a Senate Committee hearing on privacy in July, Vance said Big Tech companies were too focused on new regulations for AI out of fear that the technology would destroy humanity. Such regulations, he said, could "entrench the tech incumbents that we actually have, and make it actually harder for new entrants to create the innovation that's going to power the next generation of American growth."

Those watching the new administration take shape say it's hard to tell which way it'll turn on AI.

"When it comes to Trump's policy decisions, there are few areas less predictable right now than AI," Calvin Newport, a professor of computer science at Georgetown University and author of several books on technology and work culture, wrote to Business Insider by email. "The incoming president will likely have JD Vance on one shoulder, arguing regulation will hurt our competitiveness with China, and Elon Musk on the other, arguing for productions against existential risks — it's anyone's guess which voice will prevail."

Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who founded the military drone startup White Stork, spoke at the launch of his new book about AI and the future of the military and said he expected Trump to roll back regulations.

"I think a fair statement is that in the US, whatever regulations around trust and safety are going to occur are going to be very different and much later than I thought," he said. "Now, if you're an entrepreneur trying to do crazy stuff, this is good news. If you're a person who worries about the dangers of these tools, it's not good news."