Free Agent Profile: Pete Alonso, 1B

Pete Alonso, 1B

Position: 1B B/T: R/R

Age: 29 (12/07/1994)

2024 Traditional Stats: 608 PA, .240/.329/.459/.788, 146 H, 34 HR, 88 RBI

2024 Advanced Stats: 122 WRC+, 24.7 SO%, 10.1 BB%, .276 BABIP, .345 xwOBA, 2.1 fWAR, 2.6 bWAR, -9 OAA

Rundown

Pete Alonso. The Polar Bear. One of the great power hitters in the league, and a great teammate. What else is there to say about him? His work has done wonders for the New York Mets over the past six seasons. His rookie season is where it all started for him, crushing 53 home runs, breaking the previous rookie record set by Yankees slugger Aaron Judge. Alonso won the Homerun Derby and topped off his fantastic first season with the Rookie of the Year award. Although this might have been his best season, based on OPS and his HR total, Alonso has still had a tremendous impact since.

During his career, he averages a slash line of .249/.339/.514/.854 with 43 homers and 112 RBIs per 162 games. His pure power numbers are very impressive, and he’s hit at least 40 homers three times. The problem with Alonso over his past two seasons has been his extreme drop in OPS. This became significantly clear this past season when it dropped to .788, which is by far the lowest of his career. The next closest was his previous season, which was .821.

Along with his recent struggles at the dish, Alonso’s defense hasn’t been up to par. His blunder in the wildcard series against the Brewers will forever be embedded in Mets fans’ brains, but stats go along to support his poor defense. His 2024 defense rating was -16.9, along with his OAA being -9. For most, this has been acceptable for the team. If his bat was performing as expected, then there was no reason for slander. But with his struggles, his poor defense became evident, and the weight of the world seemed to fall on Pete Alonso’s shoulders.

Pete Alonso is coming off by far his worst year. He experienced career lows in a lot of categories and never seemed to get on a real hot streak. This was until the playoffs, during the final Wild Card game against the Brewers, where Alonso changed the narratives that he wasn’t clutch, or he couldn’t hit under pressure, or he wasn’t the same anymore.

Brewers up 2-0, top ninth, one out, runners on first and third. In a three-and-one count, Pete Alonso shocked the world. In what could’ve been his final at-bat, he drove a changeup from Devin Williams to right field, just making it over the wall giving the Mets a 3-2 lead. The fans in Milwaukee went silent, the dugout went wild, and every Mets fan jumped around in excitement and joy. They weren’t done yet.

Alonso produced a strong playoff slash line of .273/.431/.568/.999 with four homers and 10 RBIs. Proving doubters wrong left and right, he stepped up and was the star the Mets needed during the playoffs.

Contract

After reports spurred during the year, the Mets had offered a seven-year, $158 million contract to Alonso before the 2024 season. This was ultimately declined, as he was expecting to receive more during the upcoming free agency.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Pete Alonso’s projected contract is expected to be around five years, $125 million, which averages to $25 million per season. This is right around the ballpark of Paul Goldschmidt, with Freddie Freeman receiving an extra year and $37 million.

Other reporters and articles have the contract landing a bit above this, but we see it fit if Pete receives a contract around the one listed, especially in AAV terms. Between five and eight years, and from $125-$200 million is the range he could land.

Recommendation

Now, what is the decision? As I have said before in my Willy Adames profile, I think it all comes down to the brains of Steve Cohen and David Stearns. This is pretty obvious, as they do make all of the decisions. But, the choice will be of either Adames or Alonso, if the money fits what they were looking to do. There are also tons of different players who could fill the roles of both players, including Brett Baty, Alex Bregman, and the Mets’ star who will be a key factor on the 2025 team, Mark Vientos.

Alonso is a big power-hitting bat, but his first base defensively leaves much desired. Stearns typically goes for players with a more sure-of-glove, but bats like Alonso don’t grow on trees. There have been tons of rumors circling Juan Soto, as the Mets are one of if not the favorites to land him, which could be the bat to replace Pete.

But what is better than one bat? Two! Having a top-of-the-order built of Lindor-Soto-Vientos-Alonso-Nimmo, creates much-needed reliability that the Mets haven’t had in years. Alonso is a player who even during his down year, still provided the Mets with 34 homers.

Personally, I am a very big defensive guy. I love the idea of having the best defensive left side of the infield in Adames and Lindor. There is a con to that: losing the polar bear. Fans would be ecstatic if the Mets inked any big-name free agents, but I would prefer it to be Adames. If this was the final season we have seen from Pete Alonso, then I would say I am forever grateful for what he did for the club. He was one of the core pieces of the club the past few seasons and gave us a fighting chance.

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