NFL straight-up picks, Week 12: The Packers and 49ers in a battle of untrustable contenders

The NFC is staring up at the Detroit Lions. Week 12’s game between the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers could determine who’ll join them in the conference race to a spot in Super Bowl 59.

A struggling San Francisco team heads north Sunday for a date with a Packers side not quite as intimidating as their 7-3 record suggests. A loss in Green Bay wouldn’t be fatal to either’s playoff hopes — but a win could be a statement for a talented team capable of wrecking the rest of the NFC with a well-timed hot streak.

Who’s gonna emerge victorious in Week 12’s matchups? Let’s take a closer look and see if we can find some straight-up winners in this 13-game slate.

I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. In fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.

Joining me for 2024 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph, out this week, and Meghan Hall). Here are our Week 12 picks:

and:

Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:

Let’s break down three games based on what I do and don’t like.

Easiest game to pick: Washington Commanders (-10) over the Dallas Cowboys

Why I like this pick:

Washington is at home, in need of a get-right game and facing a division rival limping around like a wounded deer. Just in time for buck season.

Why I don’t like this pick:

Jayden Daniels isn’t quite the threat he once was and teams have figured out how to take Terry McLaurin out of his gameplan. Kliff Kingsbury has something cooking for that, but a steady diet of Trevon Diggs could limit the Washington offense.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 9-2 (.818)

Hardest favorite to back: Green Bay Packers (-2.5) over the San Francisco 49ers

Why I like this pick:

I don’t trust the 49ers. Kyle Shanahan’s ability to create space for his wideouts has dipped in 2024 and, for the first time in six years, San Francisco doesn’t rank in the top three when it comes to yards after catch. That means Brock Purdy has to fire passes into tight windows and is beginning to look more like the overlooked prospect he was coming into the league in 2022 (sorta, he’s still so, so much better than a seventh round pick has any right to be).

Green Bay’s defense has been more competent than years past under Jeff Hafley. Jordan Love has learned to play around his doofus throws much like the 49ers did years earlier with Jimmy Garoppolo. San Francisco’s run defense is a weak spot and Josh Jacobs has rounded back toward workhorse form. The Packers have a diverse receiving corps capable of finding holes around Deommodore Lenoir, Malik Mustapha and Charvarius Ward.

Why I don’t like this pick:

I don’t trust the Packers, either. San Francisco’s defense has taken a step back but still generates turnovers at a top 10 rate against an offense good for at least one stupid mistake per week. Kyle Shanahan and Matt LaFleur give off huge “it’s the same picture” vibes, so no one has the coaching edge.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 6-5 (.545)

Upset pick of the week: New England Patriots (+7) over the Miami Dolphins

Gonzalez is just one man in the secondary, and fellow cornerbacks Jack Jones and Marcus Jones each have allowed a passer rating over 100.0 in coverage this fall. This feels like another game where New England will trail late, then collapse when Maye throws an interception while trying to do juuuuuust a bit too much.

The Patriots road wins this season came against the September Bengals and Shane Waldron’s Bears, each of whom are worse than the current version of the Dolphins. It’s a bet on Jerod Mayo, who, ooooof.

Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 3-8 (.273)