First snowfall in Columbus normally falls this week.

COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) -- It is hard to think about the first snowfall of the year when temps have remained more than a dozen degrees above normal recently. In fact, the last below-normal day was during the final week of October, more than three weeks ago! But there is a wild pattern shift set to get underway this week, which will shift temps from almost 15 degrees above normal to nearly 15 degrees below normal later this week.

In addition to this big temperature swing, we are going to see quite a windy mid-late week pattern as well, adding to the cold feel that we will be dealing with.

When do we typically see our first snow in Columbus?

Official record-keeping for the first "measurable" snowfall goes to 1931 for the city. For this criterion, measurable counts as anything that is 0.1" (one-tenth of an inch) or more of snowfall. This would not count our first flakes of snow, like what we had on Halloween 2023 when some flurries fell but there was no measurable snowfall on the ground. This was counted as a "trace" of snow.

Since 1931, our earliest measurable snowfall in the fall occurred on Oct. 19, 1989, when 0.4" of snow dropped in Columbus. It is likely most of us remember the latest first snowfall of the fall, which actually occurred in the winter, and the next year, too! Remember in the winter of 2015-16 when our first measurable snowfall came on January 10, 2016, when 1.0" fell.

However, our average first measurable snowfall occurs on Nov. 21. When looking at snowfall from the past 10 fall/winter seasons, notice five of the years we have had that first snowfall before Nov. 21, and five have been after. And if you are wondering, no, the date of the first snow doesn't relate to how light or heavy that first snow could be. We have had pretty decent 2"+ first snows in early November, and lighter snows of just 0.1" in December.

One thing I should note, on these first snow dates, it only relates to the calendar date. Some of these snowfall events actually carried over into the next day, so they are actually heavier than what shows up in the climate date (for example 0.1" on the first day, and 1.9" on the next morning would make for a 2" event, but only 0.1" on the first snowfall date).

As luck would have it, or more like, as statistics would have it, our first forecast measurable snowfall could land right on our average first snowfall date of Nov. 21, which is this Thursday. Cold enough air will be mixed in with precipitation that will be in the forecast for Thursday with plenty of wind.