Free Agent Profile: Blake Treinen, RP

Blake Treinen, RP

Position: RP B/T: R/R
Age: 36 (06/30/1998)

2024 Traditional Stats: 50 G, 7-3, 1.93 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 46.2 IP, 56 SO, 11 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 1.4 bWAR, 1.0 fWAR, 201 ERA+, 2.38 xERA, 3.00 FIP, .255 BABIP, 30.4 SO%, 7.6 BB%

Rundown

After missing nearly two entire seasons, the mid-30s Treinen returned like he’d never left.

Treinen, who’s been in the league since 2014, is known for his nasty slider/sweeper. In parts of 10 big league seasons, he’s posted a 2.78 ERA along with 9.2 SO/9 over 549 2/3 innings. The former South Dakota State University right-hander was drafted in the 23rd round by the Marlins in 2010, but didn’t sign. He was drafted again in the seventh round the following year by the Athletics.

In 2013, Oakland traded Treinen to the Nationals in a three-team deal involving Michael Morse. Treinen spent his first three MLB seasons in Washington. He ended up back in the A’s organization, though, after being traded there in 2017 in a deal for Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle.

After a historically great 2018 campaign for Oakland — a 0.78 ERA over 80 1/3 innings — he had back-to-back down years. And it looked like that reign of dominance might be short-lived. He posted a 4.91 ERA for the A’s in 2019, then only had a pedestrian 3.86 ERA in his first season with the Dodgers in 2020. Even more worrisome is that his SO/9 fell to 7.7 that year.

But Treinen turned it back on in 2021. He put up a sub-2.00 ERA in more than 70 innings for the Dodgers, with a 10.6 SO/9.

A right arm injury ended his 2022 season after only five innings. He made seven rehab appearances, but was placed on the injured list with right shoulder tightness before he could make it back to the big league club. He ended up having to undergo shoulder surgery, and missed the entire 2023 season as a result.

Treinen returned once again this year, though, and was still in tip-top form despite his age and the slew of injury troubles. He wasn’t completely immune to injuries this season; he had a bruised lung that sat him out until May, and he missed a couple of weeks in August due to left hip discomfort. But he still managed to pitch in 50 major league games this year.

Treinen posted a 1.93 ERA, his second-lowest in a (mostly) full season throughout his career. He struck out nearly 11 batters per nine innings and walked just a hair over two. He limited the opposition to 6.4 hits per nine. Against his sweeper, batters hit just .120 and slugged .173.

By all accounts, it doesn’t look like Treinen is slowing down, at least not yet. His age should at least be a mild area of concern, along with his lengthy injury history, but signing him on a short-term deal could prove to pay immediate rewards for any team.

Contract

The Athletic’s Jim Bowden predicted that Treinen would get a two-year contract worth $17 million, which seems reasonable. Most relievers with his age and injury history would only get one year, but Treinen was dominant enough in a substantial sample that he may just have a couple more strong years in him.

This, of course, doesn’t account for subtleties in the contract like opt-outs. Two guaranteed years might be considered a gamble for some, considering the fickle nature of relievers in general. Anything more than two years would definitely be stretching it. But with Treinen’s recent performance, he’s earned a boost of confidence.

Recommendation

The Mets should absolutely have interest in Treinen. Bullpen depth was a weak point at times this year, and Treinen would be a massive, high-leverage arm to complement Edwin Díaz in the backend. A healthy Treinen and Díaz for the eighth and ninth could be one of the most feared duos in all of baseball.

Treinen won’t cost a ton, at least not more than you’d reasonably expect for a high-caliber reliever. As already discussed, given his age, he doesn’t require any kind of long-term commitment. If the Mets are looking for a major difference-maker in the bullpen for the next year or two, Treinen is a perfect fit.

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