Shapiro's 2028 prospects rise sharply after Harris defeat

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) is being floated as a future standard-bearer for Democrats following the party’s stunning nationwide defeat on Election Day. 

Shapiro, who made it to the final round of Vice President Harris’s running mate picks, has long been seen as a rising star within the Democratic Party. He has also received praise from Republicans for his bipartisan record as governor and enjoys popularity in Pennsylvania, a critical swing state Democrats lost at the presidential level this cycle. 

Many Democrats argue Shapiro’s history of winning statewide, as well as his widespread popularity, makes him a figure to watch going into 2028. 

“Any path for a Democrat to win the White House in 2028 likely also involves Pennsylvania,” said J.J. Balaban, a Democratic ad-maker based in the state. 

“And someone who is uniquely popular in Pennsylvania is going to get a lot of attention and that makes sense,” he continued. 

Pennsylvania Democratic activists have expressed hope Shapiro will run for president in the future. 

“His candidacy would be well received among leading Democrats and activist voters here in Pennsylvania,” said Mike Mikus, a Pittsburgh-based Democratic consultant. 

In 2022, then-Attorney General Shapiro sailed to victory in the state’s gubernatorial election, defeating state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R) by nearly 15 points. Republicans and Democrats point out that Mastriano was an extraordinarily weak candidate and that the 2022 midterm environment was prime for Democrats. However, Shapiro has enjoyed popularity in the two years since he was elected to Pennsylvania’s top executive post. 

An Emerson College/The Hill survey released in July showed Shapiro with a 49 percent approval rating in the state, while a Franklin and Marshall poll released in April showed him with a 54 percent approval rating.

Shapiro’s popularity did not go unnoticed by the Harris campaign, with the governor making it to the final round of the veepstakes. Harris ultimately chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) to be her running mate, but Shapiro still played a role stumping for Harris in Pennsylvania and the other “blue wall” states, and he campaigned for Democrats running at the state level. 

Pennsylvania Democrats generally had a tough election night. Democrats note Shapiro’s role in helping the state’s Democrats maintain their narrow majority in the state House despite heavy statewide losses for the party. 

“He invested heavily both in terms of his time and energy and support into our legislative races,” Mikus said. 

Shapiro responded to Tuesday’s election results by praising his state for holding “a free, fair, safe and secure election.” 

“As I have always said, the will of the people must be respected and the people of Pennsylvania have spoken, electing Donald Trump to be the next president of the United States along with other Republicans and Democrats for state and federal offices on the same ballot,” the governor said. 

Shapiro has experience working with Republicans across the aisle as governor, notably on school vouchers. Last year, the governor voiced his support for the Republican-led effort to deliver $100 million in school vouchers to families for private school tuition. Shapiro later backed off the effort, but his past support has resulted in criticism from the progressive wing of the party. 

“Whether people agree with it or disagree with it, he’s been willing to take positions that go counter to Democratic Party orthodoxy,” Mikus said. 

Progressives have also criticized Shapiro for his stance on U.S. support for Israel and his response to protests on college campuses following the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks in Israel and military response from the Israeli government. 

Many Pennsylvania Democrats argue that national Democrats can take a cue from Shapiro on how to connect with voters outside the base, something that is needed to win in a swing state, let alone nationwide. 

“Josh Shapiro is not concerned or distracted by the loud voices on both of the extremes,” said TJ Rooney, former Pennsylvania Democratic Party chair. “He plays his politics with everybody in the middle.” 

“A lot of the candidates today try to speak to the 10 percent on either side. He speaks to everyone else,” he continued. “That’s what makes him unique and that’s what makes him effective and that’s what makes him different.” 

Other Democrats saying it’s too early to be choosing standard-bearers for 2028, noting many Democrats, including Shapiro, are up for reelection in the 2026 midterms. 

“Before we can even think about presidential chit-chatter, we have to focus on races in 2025 and trying to claw back at the federal level in 2026 as well as in statewide races including in gubernatorial races and others in ‘26,” said Antjuan Seawright, a national Democratic strategist. 

“We don’t know what this Trumpy environment is going to bring for Democrats,” he said.