Final countdown at COP29

The annual UN Climate Change Summit, COP29, has opened in Baku, Azerbaijan. As many as 50,000 delegates from 200 countries are expected to attend. But key world leaders from the US, Europe, China, France, Japan and Brazil, among others, are skipping this COP. This has led to fears that the world’s wealthier nations are losing interest, following voter backlash in elections this year in Europe and in the US.

Their absence could make reaching agreement on the top priority for COP29, which is to agree a new climate finance goal, known as the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), that much more challenging, especially given the ambition – well above $1tn annually.

In his opening speech, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that “we are in the final countdown to limit global temperature rise to 1.5oC, and time is not on our side.” He called for emergency emissions reductions by advancing the COP28 goals to triple renewables capacity, double energy efficiency, and halt deforestation by 2030. He said that the top priority for COP29 is finance to “mobilise the trillions of dollars developing countries need”, calling it an investment to the future.

This was also the key message from Simon Stiell, UN Climate Change executive secretary, who said “COP29 must be the stand-and-deliver COP, recognising that climate finance is core business to save the global economy and billions of lives and livelihoods from rampaging climate impacts.”

But the shadow of climate-sceptic Donald Trump is already overshadowing the summit, in effect putting the US role at COP29 in limbo. Not only he is expected to withdraw the US from the Paris climate agreement once again, but he is unlikely to support the level of funding required to help developing nations adapt to and mitigate climate change. The current US climate envoy John Podesta acknowledged that the US is “facing new headwinds” that may “slow down energy transition”. But, putting a brave face, he added that the shift to clean energy is “irreversible” thanks primarily to initiatives led by the private sector and global institutions.

Before handing over to the COP29 president, Mukhtar Babayev, Sultan Al Jaber, the Cop28 president, acknowledged the world was meeting at a time of “complexity and conflict”, with the critical factor being finance. He said “at this COP, the finance COP, I urge all parties to deliver a new collective quantified [finance] goal that is robust and capable of fully implementing the UAE Consensus.” But who will pay, how much they will commit and who will benefit from this are still to agreed. There is a lot of controversy about the role of China, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE are still classed as developing countries, but clearly are not.

Babayev confirmed that his top priority is to agree the new financial goal. He said “we must invest today to save tomorrow.” Without major new investments it is difficult to see how global emissions can be reduced significantly.

COP29 comes at a time when temperatures continue to be broken, with this year expected to be the hottest on record. In a new report, UNFCCC warned last month that the world instead heading towards more than 3ºC. Babayev warned that this would be catastrophic. “Adaptation needs more attention,” but there is also a need to transition from fossil fuels.

At COP28 agreement was reached for the first time to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner … so as to achieve net-zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.”
COP29 achieved an early success by getting countries to approve rules on key aspects of the UN’s new global carbon market under Article 6.4. Babayev said this “will be a game-changing tool to direct resources to the developing world”. Much more will be needed to call COP29 a success.

Simon Stiell warned that “we cannot leave Baku without a substantial outcome. It is here that parties need to agree a way out of this mess.” Let’s hope they do.

Dr Charles Ellinas, @CharlesEllinas, is a Councillor Atlantic Council