Free Agent Profile: Corbin Burnes, SP

Corbin Burnes, SP

Position: SP B/T: R/R
Age: 30 (10/22/1994)

2024 Traditional Stats: 32 G, 194.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 1.096 WHIP, 15-9, 181 SO, 48 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 128 ERA+, 23.1% SO%, 6.1% BB%, 3.27 xERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.55 xFIP, 3.7 fWAR

Rundown

Starting pitching is more crucial than ever, and the Mets understand they’ll need to strengthen their rotation. Although their pitching staff performed admirably last season, the lack of a true ace and injuries ultimately cost them. Among the potential solutions being heavily considered is Corbin Burnes, a pitcher the Mets have long had their eye on.

After a rocky start to his Major League career, Burnes eventually lived up to his top-prospect status, making a major leap with a 2.11 ERA in the shortened 2020 season. Since then, he’s been a dependable force, avoiding arm injuries throughout his career. In the last three seasons, he’s thrown at least 193 innings each year and at least 167 innings in the last four.

This performance led to the Orioles trading two top prospects, Joey Ortiz and DL Hall, along with their 2024 competitive balance draft pick, to acquire one year of Burnes from the Brewers. He proved worth the cost, giving Baltimore 32 starts, posting a 2.92 ERA over 194 1/3 innings, and capping off his season with an eight-inning, one-run outing in a playoff duel against Cole Ragans.

Since 2021, Burnes ranks fourth in innings pitched among all Major League pitchers with 757 innings, and his 2.94 ERA during this stretch nearly mirrors his performance this past season. He reached a career-high velocity with the Orioles, averaging 95.3 mph on his cutter and 97 mph on his two-seamer. His walk rate of 6.1% this season was his second-lowest ever, close to the career-best 5.2% he set during his 2021 Cy Young season.

A four-time All-Star, Burnes had a strong season with the Orioles last year, posting a 15-9 record. Over his career, the 30-year-old right-hander holds a 60-36 record and a 3.19 ERA, spanning 199 appearances and 138 starts.

While Burnes’ 2024 strikeout rate of 23.1% was his lowest in recent years, it’s still slightly above the league average of 22.6%. Notably, batters made contact on 86.8% of their swings on pitches in the zone against him — a significant jump from his 2021 mark of 80.5%.

Despite Burnes’ punchout dip, his 12.9% swinging-strike rate remains above average. Though he may not be the high-strikeout pitcher he once was, Burnes is still a hard-throwing, durable pitcher who limits walks, generates swings and misses, and controls contact effectively.

Contract

Corbin Burnes remains one of the league’s top pitchers and would be a No. 1 starter on most teams. A $200 million contract would place him in an elite group, as only eight pitchers have ever hit that mark. Burnes is aiming to become the ninth. Teams will likely break down his stats to weigh the value and risks of such a large investment.

Projections vary: some suggest he could net $25 million per year over five years, while others estimate four years at $35 million annually. Spotrac places his market value around $30.1 million annually, projecting a six-year, $181 million contract, while MLB Trade Rumors envisions Burnes signing a seven-year, $200 million deal.

Recommendation

In 2024, the Mets relied on the steady contributions of starters like Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, David Peterson, and Sean Manaea. However, the absence of Kodai Senga and a true ace ultimately hindered their success in the late playoff rounds. Despite a slight dip in strikeout rates, Corbin Burnes remains among the current crop of elite pitchers, an obvious target for Steve Cohen, David Stearns, and the Met leadership to bring in and solidify the rotation.

While a long-term contract for a pitcher over 30 may carry some risk, Burnes’ current performance level suggests he would remain highly effective throughout much of his contract, fitting well within the Mets’ competitive window. Quality pitching depth is essential, and Burnes fits that bill for the Mets.

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