Trump's first move could doom his presidency: WaPo analyst

Donald Trump has a new dilemma to face as he prepares to start a second term, former conservative turned anti-Trump columnist Jennifer Rubin wrote for The Washington Post — abandon his promises, or let them destroy his fledgling administration.

"He could, for example, enact draconian, across-the-board tariffs; begin massive roundups and deportations of law-abiding 'dreamers;' repeal the Affordable Act and major bipartisan legislation passed under President Joe Biden; and enact a new round of massive tax cuts for big corporations and wealthy individuals," wrote Rubin — but in doing so he would "make himself extremely unpopular, induce economic and social chaos and create political problems for his party in the 2026 midterms."

He faced similar choices when he was first in power, Rubin noted — his effort to repeal the ACA in 2017 was a disaster that led to voters turning out in droves to give Democrats a wave election. From there, he pivoted and falsely tried to boast that he saved the ACA during the 2024 campaign. "By Trump’s own admission, there is no viable alternative," Rubin wrote.

We may be about to see a repeat of this, Rubin argued — but this time with immigration policy.

"Nothing was as near and dear to the hearts of legions of white supremacists and aggrieved MAGA supporters looking for a scapegoat for their economic ills," she wrote.

"That said, the price tag could be in the hundreds of billions; a dragnet of this size would require a sweeping police state, deprive Americans of millions of workers, upset economic progress and create images as devastating as those we saw during the child separation debacle (which, if you recall, he eventually had to abandon)."

Trump may well initially try to do this — but "a false start and failure could well color the remainder of his presidency, leaving him politically weakened, reviled and coping with a self-made economic crisis," and if he doubles down she wrote it could be"devastating."

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His tariffs, which nearly all credible economists warn would explode consumer prices, would put him in a similar bind, forcing him to either pare down his ambitions or set himself up for run.

Ultimately, Rubin concluded, "Trump can choose to follow his radical ideological backers or he can choose to be politically and economically successful. He cannot do both."