Free Agent Profile: Clay Holmes, RP

Position: RP B/T: R/R
Age: 31 (03/27/1993)

2024 Traditional Stats: 3-5, 3.14 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 67 G, 63 IP, 68 SO, 22 BB, 30 SV
2024 Advanced Stats: 131 ERA+, 25.1 SO%, 8.1 BB%, 3.22 xERA, 3.02 FIP, 3.01 xFIP, 0.7 WAR

Rundown

Clay Holmes is coming off a very up-and-down year for the crosstown rival Yankees. Until May 20, Clay Holmes did not allow a single earned run and looked flat-out dominant. He still had an ERA of under 2.00 until June 13th. His sixth season was looking to be one of if not his best.

However, things started spiraling for Holmes quickly, and following a grand slam given up to Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford on September 3, he was removed as the closer. At that time, Holmes led MLB in blown saves and had posted a 5.61 ERA over his last 27 games. After losing the closer’s role, Holmes returned to form and only allowed two earned runs in his next 10 regular season outings.

Although Holmes is coming off of an inconsistent 2024, he has been a stable back-end arm for the Yankees throughout his career. But what went wrong this year for Holmes? He allowed more hits than he ever has in his career. His strikeout rate and walk rate were around his career average. His barrel percentage increased from past years, posting a 5.6% this season, and his opponents’ BABiP jumped from .301 to .322.

Even with his stats declining, Holmes is a well-above-average pitcher. His barrel percentage is still in the 84th percentile, and he possesses a 100th percentile ground ball rate. He is also an arm with a strong bill of health and has pitched around 63 innings each of the last three years.

Contract

MLB Trade Rumors predicts Holmes will sign a three-year deal worth $30 million. This may seem like a hefty price to pay for a reliever, especially one that is coming off of his worst statistical season in years. Some teams could afford to have Holmes, and the Mets are likely one of them.

Recommendation

With all of that being said, I don’t think the Mets should go after Holmes for that kind of money. David Stearns is known for finding the diamonds in the rough, especially with the pitching. Stearns had already brought in Dylan Covey and Kevin Herget, and last year picked up Phil Maton mid-season who was a big part of the Mets bullpen after struggling with the Rays. Stearns and Steve Cohen also have other big plans for their money, and may not want to spend a large amount for multiple years on a reliever. If they were able to bring in Holmes on a shorter-term deal, then I could see him being an option in Queens.

 

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