2024 Mets Report Card: Sean Manaea, SP

SEAN MANAEA, LHP

Player Data: Age: 32 (02/01/1992)

Primary Stats: 32 starts, 181.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 1.084 WHIP, 12-6, 184 SO, 63 BB
Advanced Stats: 114 ERA+, 24.9 K%, 8.5 BB%, 3.75 xERA, 3.83 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, 2.8 fWAR, 3.0 bWAR

2024 Salary: $14.5 million

Grade: A

2024 REVIEW

When the Mets signed Manaea to a 2-year, $28 million deal with a player option for the second year, he was mostly looked at as a consolation prize. Yoshinobu Yamamoto went to the Dodgers on a mega deal and Aaron Nola signed a long-term extension with the Phillies in the two biggest moves, while Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez and Seth Lugo all got respectable, three- or four-year deals with their respective new teams. Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell, meanwhile, were still holding out for long-term deals that the Mets were unwilling to hand out.

So, they moved on to Manaea, who was coming off probably the worst full season of his MLB career. It wasn’t the worst by ERA—that was the year before in 2022 when he had a 4.96 in 30 games (28 starts)—but the worst in terms of his role. M

anaea struggled mightily in his first eight games (six starts) and then was bumped to the bullpen for the rest of the season, only making four more starts to finish out the year when the Giants were out of contention. After making just three relief appearances in the first seven years of his career, he made 27 in 2023.

The Mets signed him to start, though, and it was largely a question mark what they would get out of him. Even we gave his signing a “B” grade, calling him a solid addition but someone who could potentially end up in the bullpen. At the time, he was considered as someone they could possibly trade if they weren’t in contention, too.

Manaea dazzled in his Mets debut, throwing six shutout innings with eight strikeouts en route to a 5-0 Mets loss to the Tigers. He was never downright bad, but had an up-and-down first few months and saw his ERA sit at 4.30 through his first 12 starts, with most of his poor starts blown up due to walks. He then had a good run of eight starts with a 2.98 ERA, including twice when he finished seven innings—the first two times he did so all season.

Then, he dropped his arm slot. As discussed at length on postseason broadcasts whenever he took the mound, Manaea watched fellow lefty Chris Sale pitch earlier in the season and decided to drop his arm slot lower, like Sale. He broke out the new delivery on July 30 against the Minnesota Twins and turned in his best start of the season, going seven shutout innings with 11 strikeouts. Six days later against the St. Louis Cardinals, he threw another seven shutout innings, this time with 10 strikeouts.

Those two starts kicked off a 12-game stretch with a 3.09 ERA to finish the season. Most impressively, he finished seven innings seven times, and recorded outs in the seventh inning another two more times after doing so just twice in his previous 20 starts. Over those final two months, Manaea blossomed into the ace the Mets so desperately needed for their playoff push.

Manaea made four starts for the Mets in the postseason, and the first three were really good. He went five innings, allowing two runs in Game 2 against the Milwaukee Brewers; seven innings and one run in Game 3 versus the Philadelphia Phillies; and five innings and three runs (two earned) in Game 2 in Los Angeles. Then, in Game 6 back in LA, Manaea’s storybook finish to the season finally came to an end. In two-plus innings, Manaea gave up six hits, two walks and five runs to the Dodgers in the game that would ultimately knock the Mets out of the playoffs.

Despite that outing, though, Manaea’s 2024 was a rousing success, especially given the expectations. Yeah, he fell short in the season’s final game, but without him, the Mets don’t even make the playoffs, much less the NLCS.

2025 OVERVIEW

As expected, Manaea declined his $13.5 million player option and became a free agent. The Mets also extended Manaea the qualifying offer ($21 million), which he almost certainly will decline. Jim Bowden of The Athletic predicts Manaea will get a 3-year, $68 million deal, and he should be a hot commodity with most of the league in need of starting pitching.

The Mets are one of those teams. Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana are all free agents. That trio combined to throw 534 innings and make 94 of the team’s 162 regular season starts. As it stands right now among pitchers who made double-digit starts in 2024, the Mets only have Kodai Senga, David Peterson and Tylor Megill under contract. All three come with question marks, whether it’s health, consistency, or both.

While the Mets should absolutely at least explore reunions with Severino and Quintana, Manaea is clearly the one who should be at the top of the list. The biggest question with Manaea is simple: Is his jump to ace, or at least No. 2 starter, sustainable? The numbers suggest it is.

Let’s start with his arsenal, which was significantly re-tooled from what he threw in 2023. Last season, Manaea was a heavy four-seam fastball pitcher, throwing it 56% of the time. In 2024, that dropped to just 11%. Instead, Manaea’s most used pitch became his sinker, a pitch he used to lean on earlier in his career with Oakland but only threw a total of 16 times in 2023. His sinker usage jumped to 43%, and it was by far his most effective pitch. It had 4.5 more inches of arm-side break than the average sinker and recorded a run value of 15, the 24th-best overall pitch and fifth-best sinker in all of baseball. It also recorded the highest run value of any pitch on the Mets, followed by Quintana’s sinker and Peterson’s sinker. Something about lefties throwing good sinkers—it just works.

Aside from the pitch mix changes, there’s other evidence to show it wasn’t just random, unsustainable improvement. Manaea changed when he dropped his arm slot.

• Pre-July 30: .224 BA, .252 xBA, 23 K%, 10 BB%, 41 HardHit%, 88.9 mph AvgEV
• Post July 30: .170 BA, .195 xBA, 28 K%, 6 BB%, 33 HardHit%, 87.0 mph AvgEV

It’s not a random improvement. It was a tangible, mechanical change that helped Manaea become the best version of himself. As long as he sticks with these mechanics and continues to lean on his sinker, Manaea should continue to have success.

Heading into his age-33 season, Manaea won’t get a long-term deal. A three-year deal as Bowden predicted would take him through his age-36 season. To keep Manaea in Queens and stabilize what is right now a very short rotation, it’s worth it.

We’ll have more on Manaea in a free agent profile later this offseason.

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