Magic number Donald Trump needs to win each state revealed by top analyst – and why race couldn’t be tighter
DONALD Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck in the fight for the White House – and a top analyst has revealed the magic number that could win Trump the presidency.
The race will likely come down to the seven battleground states, where Trump needs an even smaller popular vote threshold than Harris to win.
In 2016, expert political analyst David Wasserman correctly predicted the possibility of Trump winning the election without securing the popular vote.
Eight years later, Wasserman exclusively told The U.S. Sun that the Electoral College votes are anyone’s game – but that Trump is in a good spot.
“Republican electoral college advantage has diminished, owing to Democrats declining strength in New York and California,” Wasserman told The U.S. Sun’s Acting Assistant Editor Chris Bradford.
“But Harris is on the bubble of where she needs to be to win the electoral college. It couldn’t be tighter.”
Wasserman, the senior editor at the Cook Political Report, said that after Harris’ successful rollout and debate performances in August and September, October became more of a “pitched battle.”
Which brings us to Election Day – where Wasserman says Trump’s magic number is just 47% of the popular vote to win the Electoral College.
“Trump can win the presidency with as little as 47% of the vote,” he estimated.
“46% was good enough in 2016, 47% was not in 2020.”
In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump 306-232 in the Electoral College. He had a four-point margin in the popular vote.
This time around, the swing states are home to a jackpot of 93 Electoral College votes – meaning whichever candidate gets 270 or more out of the 538 at stake will take the White House.
Wasserman explained the threshold is narrower this year because it’s already more of a divided ballot.
“Keep in mind, we still do have RFK Jr and Cornel West on ballots in Michigan and Wisconsin. Jill Stein is on every battleground state except Nevada,” Wasserman explained.
“That lowers the candidates’ threshold for victory south of 50%.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the presidential race in August and endorsed Trump, but his name is still on the ballot in the key swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin.
“Harris needs to win the popular vote by 2-3 points to win the Electoral College,” Wasserman explained.
“Trump’s win number is 47. Harris’ is 49.”
The political expert said Harris and Trump’s divided strategies when campaigning in battleground states might have made the difference in the upcoming results.
He said that while Harris relied on a more “traditional strategy” of campaigning in Wisconsin and Michigan, Trump took a “bank shot” by trying to win over big blue states.
“Trump is going to California and New York to put the spotlight on Democrats’ governance of those states and make the case to the rest of the country that Kamala Harris will turn America into San Francisco and LA or New York,” he said.
Throughout his campaign, Trump has often accused Harris of ruining California during her time as San Francisco’s district attorney.
He’s slammed Harris’ record as a California prosecutor and even said that she “destroyed” San Francisco.
Harris is on the bubble of where she needs to be to win the electoral college. It couldn’t be tighter.
David Wasserman
While Trump closed his campaign by attacking Harris and promising to fix the economy, Wasserman said that Harris’ closing arguments weren’t strong either.
The analyst said the vice president’s shaming of Trump for his involvement in the insurrection on the capitol on January 6, 2021, was a bad play as she headed for the election.
“To swing voters, January 6 is less a future-of-democracy issue, but more of a law and order concern,” Wasserman said.
WHAT UNDECIDED VOTERS WANT
He said Harris should have tried to claim the upper hand on law and order rather than warning voters about “backsliding into authoritarianism” by electing Trump.
“That argument falls on deaf ears,” he said, adding that the message “resonates with Democrats, but it doesn’t win new converts to the campaign.”
“Undecided voters are even more focused on the cost of living and inflation.
“They’re less likely to be basing their vote on abortion or immigration,” Wasserman said.
“Trump still has the edge when it comes to handling the economy – but she’s got to put the spotlight on Trump which she’s trying to do.”