Free Agent Profile: Juan Soto, OF

Juan Soto, RF

Position: RF B/T: L/L
Age: 26 (10/25/1998)

2024 Traditional Stats: 713 PA, .288/.419/.569/.989, 41 HR, 109 RBI
2024 Advanced Stats: 180 WRC+, 16.7% SO%, 18.1% BB%, .298 BABIP, .463 xwOBA, 8.1 fWAR

Rundown

As the baseball season closed with the ending of the World Series, Juan Soto is now officially the most sought-after free agent on the market.

Fresh off a stellar season with the Yankees, one in which he played a pivotal role in taking the team to its first World Series appearance in 15 years, Soto is set to command a groundbreaking contract, with analysts speculating he could even surpass Shohei Ohtani’s record for total guaranteed dollars and average annual value (AAV).

In his debut season in the Bronx, Soto’s performance was exceptional. He posted a .288/.419/.569 slash line with a 178 OPS+ across 157 games, contributing 31 doubles, 41 home runs, and 109 RBIs for a 7.9 bWAR. Soto marked his 26th birthday during the postseason, and his numbers through that birthday are remarkable. Over 936 games, he has a .285 batting average, a .421 on-base percentage, and a .953 OPS, racking up 934 hits, 769 walks, 210 home runs, and 592 RBIs.

Soto’s advanced metrics back up his success: he ended the season as the third-best hitter by wRC+, trailing only two likely MVPs. Known for his elite plate discipline, he has led the league in walks three times and maintained an OBP over .400 in all seven major league seasons. His 145 walks in 2021 remain the most in a single season over the past two decades. According to Fangraphs, Soto also notched a career-high 8.1 fWAR this season, ranking fourth in MLB behind only Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr., and Ohtani.

Power has become a defining feature of Soto’s game, as he hit a career-high 41 home runs in 2024. Though Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch might have helped boost his numbers, most of his home runs were “no-doubters.” His consistency and growth suggest he’s on the verge of his prime, and projections indicate he can continue to be a powerhouse hitter for years to come.

Soto’s accomplishments date back to his rookie days with the Washington Nationals, when he won a World Series at age 20. Since then, he’s been a four-time All-Star, playing with the Nationals, Padres, and Yankees. His 36.3 career fWAR places him in elite company. In the past 30 years, only Mike Trout, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, and Andruw Jones posted higher fWAR totals before turning 26. Soto is also just the fourth player since 2000 to reach free agency at age 26, joining Jason Heyward, Manny Machado, and Bryce Harper.

While Soto’s offense is nearly flawless, his defense has room for improvement. His metrics showed some gains this season, which may be partially attributed to Yankee Stadium’s smaller right field. As a member of the Yankees, Soto ranked in just the 38th percentile in run value (negative one), but ranked in the 90th percentile in arm value (three).

Despite this, Soto is projected to put up multiple 8-WAR seasons over the next decade, making him a valuable asset even if he transitions to a designated hitter role later in his career.

Contract

All 30 teams will undoubtedly show interest in Soto, but only a select few have the financial means to compete on a serious level. Soto’s next contract could easily exceed $500 million, with potential suitors including the Yankees, Mets, and Phillies. Other interested teams reportedly include the Giants, Blue Jays, and Red Sox, along with surprise interest from some small-market teams and the World Champion Dodgers.

Soto and his agent, Scott Boras, are aiming high. Industry speculation suggests Soto’s contract could land in the $620-$650 million range, with guaranteed money up front, though a $700 million benchmark similar to Ohtani’s deal has floated around. Ohtani’s record-breaking contract included $680 million in deferred payments, reducing its real-time value.

Boras may resist a similar structure, but with Spotrac’s recent estimate suggesting a 12-year, $660 million deal with partial deferment, Soto could still reach Ohtani’s historic earnings. At 26, Soto’s age, stats, and marketability make him one of the most enticing free agents in recent memory—and he’s just getting started.

Recommendation

David Stearns has alluded to the idea the Mets have the means and willpower to seek whatever player they desire in free agency. That said, it’s only right they make an offer for Juan Soto.

Adding a bat like his to a lineup full of already solid hitters like Brandon Nimmo, Mark Vientos, and Francisco Lindor(and possibly Pete Alonso) would increase the Mets’ viability as a team serious about winning and winning often. Players like Soto are generational talents, and the Mets seem willing to throw as much as possible to ensure that type of player is at Citi Field next season.

The post Free Agent Profile: Juan Soto, OF appeared first on Metsmerized Online.