Map shows where civil unrest could break out after US elections

America is on high alert. Almost four years after former US president Donald Trump encouraged a mob to attack the Capitol building in Washington fears of mass civil unrest are rising again.

Election Day is underway and voters are heading to the polls to make their voices heard in what is expected to be a close contest between Democrat Kamala Harris and the Republican nominee.

Ballot boxes have already been set on fire and a teenager ‘brandishing a machete’ at a polling station in Florida was arrested in Florida, so it is fair to say democracy in the US is on edge.

Behind the scenes, security experts are closely monitoring potential ‘triggers’ that could ignite widespread civil unrest and lead to protests.

What could trigger civil unrest in the US?

Michael Rogers, chief security analyst at International SOS told Metro that the key threats until at least November 19 are large, violent protests around government sites and polling stations, solo actor attacks against politicians and extremist acts.

‘As we watch the Election Day scenarios play out, we are looking for triggers that could result in civil unrest,’ he said.

‘One of them would be the length of the period of uncertainty. Polls close Eastern Time today, so if 48 hours after that there is no clear winner, then that would be an indication to us that perhaps this is headed towards that higher risk scenario.

‘Misinformation starts to permeate, people get antsy, the temperature starts to rise, so that is one element of it.

‘Beyond that, if there is some narrative surrounding electoral fraud, particularly in one of the critical counties in the sensitive swing states, that is really like tracking in the American consciousness.

‘Authorities are not having an easy time debunking and clarifying information, so if it is gaining traction in the media, more and more people will begin to believe it. This is another indicator we are heading towards another high risk scenario.

‘Lastly, if a politician says they do not accept the election results, then there is an issue. Such statements can be surrogates and fan the flames.’

Rogers stressed that all this, in conjunction with the tiny margin of victory for both Harris and Trump can lead Americans to believe the election ‘was stolen,’ resulting in mass unrest.

Which areas are at risk for potential civic unrest?

On the ground across the US, it looks like cities are bracing for a civil war. Metal fences were erected around the White House and vice president Harris’ home at the US Naval Observatory over the weekend.

Concerned about the potential for protests or even violence, fences ring around hundreds of buildings, while many more have been boarded up.

At least three states have called for National Guard troops to help maintain the peace. 

Many of the most visible moves can be seen in the battleground states that will decide the presidential election, states like Nevada where protests by supporters of former president Trump broke out after the 2020 election.

Rogers agreed that the so-called swing states are obviously a ‘focal point’, but added that his team is surveilling a number of other regions where unrest could be triggered.

He said: ‘Tensions are higher in swing states, that is fair to say. But I would call out a few other places too.

‘I have not landed on a fantastic way to describe these but there are a number of cities that within the last four years have had a history of sort of kinetic activism driven by some sort of development in the political space.

‘These would be cities like Portland in Oregon, Seattle in Washington and Chicago in Illinois.

‘All places in which we have seen, in the not too distant past, demonstrations that have involved an incident of violence generated from a political outcome.’

For 2024, there are seven states that both the Democrats and Republicans have agreed meet the criteria for being swing states.

They are: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and, of course, Pennsylvania.

Rogers, who lives in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, has firsthand experience of what it is the atmosphere in the swing states.

‘I could tell you first hand the coverage here is wall to wall,’ he said. ‘We are really inundated, and for good reason, right?

‘Ultimately, we are critical  towards the outcome of the election so it is sort of an inescapable reality right now. Tensions as a result are higher.

‘A lot of politicians are visiting the state, making rallies; any time you walk outside there are billboards with ads, flyers showing up in your mail… It is an interesting experience to live through.’

Could another attack like the storming of the Capitol happen again?

After the January 6, 2021, siege of the Capitol by a mob supporting Trump, which sought to overturn the former president’s election loss to Joe Biden, America is on edge if another similar attack could happen again.

Members of far-right extremist organisations, former police officers, an Olympic gold medalist swimmer and active duty US Marines were among the rioters.

But Rogers said it is ‘not likely to see a repeat’, adding: ‘Ultimately, the authorities are doing a lot to make sure that something like that does not happen again.

‘We are less likely to see the frustration from supporters of a losing candidate. The more likely outcome are desperate and disconnected acts of violence or criminal mischief that targets sensitive sites in swing states.’

Since then, more than 1,230 people have been charged with federal crimes in the riot and about 730 of them have pleaded guilty to charges.

Around 467 have received some time behind bars, with prison sentences ranging from a few days to 22 years.

Washington’s federal courthouse has remained flooded with trials, plea hearings and sentencings stemming from what has become the largest criminal case in American history. But the hunt for suspects is far from over.

Rogers stressed that a number of the extremist groups which took part in the riot have been either dismantled or infiltrated by police.

Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.

For more stories like this, check our news page.