It’s time to admit that the Cavs are title contenders

The Cavaliers’ offensive and defensive versatility have made them a team that could come out of the Eastern Conference.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are nearly a tenth of their way through the season, but one thing is clear already. This team is good. Not good in the sense that they’ll win 50 games and have a chance of getting out of the first round. They’re good in that they could make it out of the Eastern Conference if things break right.

Four teams have separated themselves from their peers through the early season. The Cavs, Oklahoma City Thunder, Boston Celtics, and Golden State Warriors are all outscoring their opponent by 15 points or more per 100 possessions so far. The next closet team, the New York Knicks, is half as impressive (+7).

There are reasons to be skeptical of a small seven-game sample size. But team performances at the start of the season are often indicative of regular and postseason success more than other small sample sizes. This is due to most teams being injury-free at the beginning of the year and the extra effort level before the grind of the 82-game schedule wears players down.

For example, last season three of the top four teams in net rating through seven games advanced to at least the second round with the Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves going further. The Philadelphia 76ers, the one team in that group that didn’t, were derailed due to injuries. In the previous five seasons, the eventual champion was within the top five of net rating through seven games in four of those years.

How the Cavaliers have been able to get off to their hot start is why you should buy in. They have been winning because they’re able to play two very different styles have made it difficult for their opponents.

Kenny Atkinson differentiates how he talks about the team in terms of the big and spread lineups. He describes them as “two different animals” that require different things from who’s out there on the court. Both have been successful.

Getting lineups with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley to work offensively is one of the things that Atkinson was brought in to solve. So far, he’s done that.

Lineups with both bigs have registered a +9.9 net rating with a 117.5 offensive rating (74th percentile). They have done this by getting out in transition—they’re in the 97th percentile in points added in transition—and finishing at the rim. This has kept the offense from getting bogged down in the half-court.

The spread lineups look much more similar to how the Celtics and Thunder are playing. They space the floor to generate open threes and driving lanes with one center providing rim pressure. This shows through best in lineups with Mobley on and Allen off.

Units with Mobley as the lone center are attempting threes on 42.8% of their shot attempts (78th percentile). Their better spacing allows them to be much more efficient in the half-court which has led to a 132.2 offensive rating in that setting (132.2).

The success of both lineups, in different ways, has allowed the Cavs to have the third-best offense so far this season. We saw the spread lineups have success last season, most notably during the Cavs 18-2 run in the middle of last season, but the success of the two big lineups has allowed the Cavaliers to have groups that are consistently good for 48 minutes. That wasn’t the case last year.

Defense has been this team’s calling card for years and that’s still the case. The offensive changes haven’t negatively impacted them defensively as Cleveland still boasts the third-best defense. Like the offensive side of the ball, their unique defensive pieces allow them to play in different ways depending on the matchup.

For example, the Cavs were able to contain Jalen Brunson and LeBron James with Dean Wade as the primary defender. Against the Milwaukee Bucks, Isaac Okoro drew the assignment on Damian Lillard. Having a premier wing and guard stopper to compliment the backline isn’t something many teams have.

Their personnel versatility on that end has allowed lineups with both bigs and groups with just one to remain elite defensively.

The best playoff teams have a variety of ways to defeat an opponent. The different gears that the Cavs can reach and the lineup combinations they can go with are something they haven’t had in the past. For the last two seasons, the slow pace of the two-big lineups combined with the poor spacing and lack of off-ball movement meant that they were entirely dependent on Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland to carry them to victories. Now, they’re more varied in their attack.

The offensive and defensive numbers show that the Cavs are among the inner circle of title contenders. They’re still behind Boston, but the gap isn’t as wide as it was last year in the playoffs.

The results of Atkinson’s new system are showing through on the court faster than Atkinson could’ve hoped for. But he will be the first to admit that they’re far from a finished product.

“We got a ways to go,” Atkinson said after last week’s win over the Los Angeles Lakers. “We’re developing. We’re still learning each other. [There were] a couple [instances] tonight where [I wasn’t] on the same page with those guys. [I’m] getting to know them better. Getting to know their personalities better. We’re still a work in progress, but we’re headed in the right direction.”