Guardians Season in Review: Josh Naylor

Highs and lows for Cleveland’s cleanup hitter

Josh Naylor is one of my all-time favorite Cleveland Guardians and I think the world of him.

I begin this article with that statement because I’m going to talk frankly about some issues with Naylor as he approaches this final seaosn he is currently contracted to be with Cleveland. I do not say anything negative or critical out of anything other than a desire to be clear-eyed about what it might take for him to take another step toward greatness after a season where he made his first MLB All-Star game.

In 2024, the older Naylor brother put up a 118 wRC+ with a 16.6/9.2 K/BB% and a .246 BABIP. His fWAR was 2.3 (slight decline from 2023’s 2.7 fWAR). Over the past three years, he has a 121 wRC+ with a 15.6/7.9 K/BB% and a .279 BABIP. Unfortunately, Naylor’s defensive numbers took a real dive in 2024 from 0 DRS to -6 DRS and from 5 OAA to 1 OAA. His baserunning numbers have continued to declined over his career reaching the low point of -2.5 baserunning runs above average this year. But he got to a career high in isolated power this year at .213, hitting a career high 31 homers. Of course, he also followed this all up by putting up only a 50 wRC+ in the playoffs and striking out 23.3% of the time.

Through his first 300 plate appearances of 2024, Naylor had a 125 wRC+ and had hit 19 home runs. Through his remaining 332 plate appearnaces, he put up a 112 wRC+ and only hit 12 home runs. This includes a wRC+ in September/October of 106 wRC+ (plus the aforementioned playoff numbers). He declined as the season went on. I have noticed that there is a narrative that Naylor always declines as the season continues, and that isn’t really accurate. He has a wRC+ in the second halfs of seasons in 2022-2023 of 112. Not particularly notable in terms of decline, especially given that 2024 is weighing that average down a little. So, what was going on this season?

All right, difficult subject... it is quite clear that Josh Naylor gained a significant amount of weight during the 2024 season. When evaluating athletes, I do think it is fair to notice body changes and analyze whether or not they may have adverse effects on someone’s performance... with a key caveat: none of us have any idea why Naylor gained weight this season. Did he have a medical condition? Did his lingering injury issues make it impossible to work out as he would have preferred? Or, is there some sort of unavoidable life stress that has resulted in weight gain? I have gained much more weight than I would have preferred while trying to work two jobs and partner with my wife in raising four kids ages five and under. I get it. This weight gain is affecting my performance in being able to keep up with my kids, so I’m doing something about it. I am confident Josh Naylor will do so as well and I do not mention this to call him lazy or negligent in any manner. But, his numbers decline throughout the year and the plain evidence of my eyes make it clear the weight gain did not enhance his play on the field, and I don’t think it’s helpful to ignore that.

There have been numerous debates on the comments in these forums about whether discussing Naylor’s weight is “fat-shaming.” I do not believe Naylor should be shamed for his weight gain. I also don’t think he is “fat”, just probably over his ideal playing weight. But, I guarantee he and his coaches and families are concerned for his health and long-term playing future if he attempts to play with the additional weight he gained this year. So, I think it is fair as fans to express concern for his well-being and success without castigating him for a problem whose source is beyond our ability to know.

Naylor also played a career high 152 games, 31 more than the previous season. With all due respect to Naylor and the Guardians, I think that’s probably about 10 games too many. I do wonder if he would have found himself a little more fresh at the end of the year had the team promoted Kyle Manzardo again in August and given him a little more time to recover his strength. It’s also no secret that Naylor doesn’t enjoy being a DH; for his career, he has a 75 wRC+ as a DH and a 125 wRC+ as a first baseman. But, it’s also true that players tend to get more comfortable hitting as a DH when given more opportunities to do so. The Guardians need to get Naylor more DH days and more days off in 2024.

When you look at Naylor’s underlying graphics, nothing particular stands out in terms of chase rate, groundball/flyball rates, launch angle, hard hit rate, barrel rate, or contact rate. Everything in 2024 was similar to his career norms. The most notable decline was in his performance against breaking balls, splitters and sinkers - in 2023, Naylor was above average against every pitch except changeups (-4.7 runs below average). In 2024, he was -3.7 runs below average against sinkers, -1.1 runs below average against splitters, -1.5 runs below average against curveballs, and 2.6 runs declined from his 2023 numbers against sliders. If it wasn’t a fastball, he really didn’t have much of an answer for it. For his career, he’s -2.3 runs below average against both splitters and curveballs and -3.4 runs below average against changeups. I’d say his offseason cagework should give him a lot of looks at offspeed stuff, breaking balls and stuff that break vertically. It would probably make sense to try to mitigate some of his issues on curveballs with extensive offseason work (he can practically punt splitters as a pitch not too many pitchers throw).

To be honest, I think there are three simple keys to Naylor having continued success in 2025 and beyond: first, figure out the best playing shape for him to have success and stick to a plan to maintain it. Second, get more rest in both off days and DH days. Finally, build on his career high 9.2% walk rate and .213 ISO from this past season. If Josh can walk and slug, that will cover over a multitude of sins.

In regards to his future with the club, I tend to believe the team will retain Naylor through the 2024 season and allow him to leave in free agency, perhaps declining a qualifying offer to do so, in 2025. I would put the odds of him being traded higher than the odds of him signing an extension however, but I don’t think either odds are especially high. Let’s say 15% chance he is traded and 5% chance he signs an extension. He is still only 27 years old so I could certainly imagine a scenario where he and the team find their way to a 3 year extension that takes him into his 30’s. On a team that struggled to hit RHP in 2024, Naylor’s 124 wRC+ against right-handers (104 wRC+ vs LHP in 2024) seems pretty crucial. But, I suspect they Guardians will feel they got sufficient value from him and his time on the team if they can get another season of his bat and then perhaps a compensatory draft pick when he leaves.

Finally, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention how cool it is to see brothers Josh and Bo playing together, and about how everyone in the Guardians’ clubhouse seems to talk up what a great teammate Naylor is. I’ve seen him be unfailingly kind to his teammates in interviews and go out of his way to give fans special attention when given the opportunity. Plus, when he is hot, he is a VERY fun hitter to watch and can carry your baseball team for a week. All of these are important to this team and it’s why I’m glad to say that I expect to see him in a Guardians’ uniform for at least one more season.

Here’s some highlights from Naylor’s 2024: