The shock Iowa poll

03.11.2024 09:02

Scoop

The conventional wisdom based on the polls is Trump is favoured to win the election. But a new poll out in Iowa has shocked the status quo assumptions.

The poll for the Des Moines Register has Harris ahead of Trump by 3% – 47% to 44% in Iowa, driven by a surge in female support for Harris.

In September the same poll had Trump ahead by 47% to 43% and in June Trump was 50% to 34% for Biden.

Breakdowns are:

Men: Trump +14%
Women: Harris +20%
Under 35s: Harris +2%
35 – 54: Trump +8%
55+: Harris +12%
Rural: Trump +20%
Towns: Trump +9%
Suburbs: Harris +23%
Cities: Harris +28%
Republicans: Trump +84%
Democrats: Harris +97%
Independents: Harris +7%
2020 Trump voters: Trump +85%
2020 Biden voters: Harris +89%
2020 non voters: Harris +3%

Now this is only one poll, and all pollsters can have an outlier poll., It may well be an outlier, and all kudos goes to Anne Selzer for publishing an outlier, as it is suspected many US polling firms herd their polls towards the average in the final weeks.

Selzer’s Iowa poll is regarded as very very credible by professionals, as she has often published polls seen as outliers, which turned out to be very accurate. She has been polling Iowa since 1987, so for 37 years.

Their record is:

2020: Final poll Trump +7%, Result Trump +8%
2016: Final poll Trump +7%, Result Trump +9%
2012: Final poll Obama +5%, Result Obama +6%

Also in 2008 she was the only pollster to predict Obama beating Clinton in the primary, and has often had Senate polls which have benefited outliers to other polls, but proven accurate.

So if this was any other pollster in any other state, you would almost ignore it. And it is more than possible the poll will be wrong. It is almost unthinkable that Trump will lose a state by 3% which he won by 8% in 2020. But it is quite possible Selzer has picked up a surge of support for Harris by women voters, than has not been reflected elsewhere.

It will be a fascinating election night on Wednesday.

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