Ex-Bush strategist reveals who's in prime position ahead of election and slams junk polls

Former George W. Bush campaign strategist Matthew Dowd, a numbers guy, said he thinks Vice President Kamala Harris is in a stronger position heading into the election than Donald Trump.

Speaking to MSNBC's Nicolle Wallace on Wednesday, Dowd said he doesn't think Americans are actually "undecided" — "I think they're unmotivated."

Also read: Donald Trump believes he’s going to lose

Harris is working in the final days of the campaign to motivate these voters.

He said a big problem he has with polling experts such as Nate Silver and Real Clear Politics is they aggregate polls — and accept them as they are.

"If the model is off, the model is off, none of those numbers matter," said Dowd. "If you don't have the right percentage of people that are going to vote that are college educated, that are white, that are people of color that are women, all of the numbers you need and partisanship in this, if you model it based on an election that happened before 2016, 2020, 2022, whatever the election you have, you may miss the movements of people today."

Every model he's seeing today is premised on voting behavior," he said. Not "on the large pool of Americans that are potentially there, who aren't likely to vote but could vote if they are motivated properly."

He lamented that the poll models aren't premised on the current views of the American people; rather, they're looking at 2022 and 2016.

After they paused for the Kamala Harris rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Dowd came back with a quick comment saying, "I would rather be her than him at this point in time. I would look at the data."

"People have to realize that when you look at a close election and analyze it, you are going to get lots of pieces of data," he told viewers. "Some will be bad. Some will be neutral. Some will be good. What you are looking for is a majority of the data points to be good. And yesterday a majority of the data points have been good for her. Some were bad, a few, some neutral, but the majority were good. Today, the majority of data points are good for her."

See his comments in the videos below or at the link here.

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